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Happy Valentine's Day and Happy Healthy Heart Month
February has become the month that we focus on our hearts - both
from a physiological as well as an emotional standpoint.
Tomorrow is Valentine's Day...and while many Americans scurry to
find the right card, the right flowers and the right candy...many
others, in fact 71,300,000 others (according to the 2006 update from
the American Heart Association) suffer with one or more types of
cardiovascular disease.
Since 1900, Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) has been the number one
killer in the United States every year, except in 1918. In 2006, that
means that nearly 2,500 Americans die of CVD every day - or one
person every 35 seconds.
I have lived with this reality first hand. My mom, Lillian
Lempert, who many of you met over the years and many more know
through my stories of her adventures, passed away unexpectedly due to
heart disease on January 20th. She was 83, drove a Chrysler Sebring
convertible and still worked at the Short Hills Metropolitan Museum
store in New Jersey. She had her first heart attack at age 50 after
years of smoking (she never smoked again), a triple bypass followed
as did four more heart attacks and a pacemaker.
She was a vibrant and energetic heart patient who tried her best
to change her lifestyle to enjoy her life. She switched to a heart
healthy diet (and stuck to it most of the time) and read labels. And
there is little doubt that reducing fat, calories and sodium helped
her to be as active as she was.
Which is why the report that was issued last week by the National
Institutes of Health as part of the Women's Health Initiative, which
has cast doubt on the effectiveness of a low-fat diet in preventing
heart disease or cancer, sends the wrong message to the consumer. And
while many nutritionists and doctors have already suggested that the
study is questionable, especially since the women in the study were
for the most part postmenopausal and didn't actually reduce the
percent of fat in their diets to the study's 20% recommended level.
The reality is that it is in the headlines, consumers have read them
and are now trying to figure out what foods to eat.
Health, as the Institutes' report states, needs to be looked at
as a complete picture with a diversity of nutrients, exercise and
proper sleep habits. Of course it does...but just as we have seen in
the past, poor nutrition communication leads to confusion in the
supermarket aisle.
Studies and reports like this are dangerous to the shopper, and
we in the food world need to continue the "nutritional correction"
that we started in 2004 by reducing portion size, calories, fats,
sodium and sugars and at the same time adding more whole grains and
fibers to our foods.
Americans' obsession with food will continue, as will the latest
fad diets and health reports du jour...the well-documented topline
since the early 1970s is that eating fewer fats and sugars, and
exercising more, can improve our cardiovascular health and wellness.
Our nation's future is at stake, and it's critical for the food
industry to continue to produce foods that follow smart science,
versus the latest opportunistic diet craze.
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U.S. Hispanics are emerging as the marketing opportunity of the 21st
century. The fastest growing ethnic group in the United States,
Latinos far outspend the average U.S. supermarket shopper. Learn more
about U.S. Hispanic spending patterns, importance of products and
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FMI's Speaks is the annual state of the industry report for food
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February 13, 2006
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New day, new challenges
We all consider ourselves pretty proficient in today's
technologies - after all, you are reading this article online.
We're linking constantly to an array of products more wonderful
than ever.
Yet, as two speakers at the recently concluded FMI MARKETECHNICS
show made clear, there are many aspects of our high-speed world that
we aren't mastering at all. And the charge was made to start
educating our companies as quickly as possible before we build
massive problems with our shoppers.
The first speaker was Frank W. Abagnale, known to many from his
autobiography and the accompanying movie Catch Me if You Can.
Abagnale explained how technology enables behavior well beyond
anything he did in his career as a forger. Abagnale, who now develops
devices aimed at thwarting criminals, offered many graphic examples
of how technology makes the wrong activities easier than ever.
Printing false checks or even creating currency, which in his
time required massive printing presses, time-honed skills and months
of effort, can take minutes today thanks to the same time-saving
technologies we all employ. It was ironic that just days before
Abagnale's speech, a group of Maryland high school students were
arrested for printing counterfeit ten dollar bills and passing them
out in their school cafeteria. The students' methods were exactly the
technology-enabled activities Abagnale outlines.
But there are simple solutions as well. Some simple education for
cashiers can help anyone quickly identify some of the simplest forms
of counterfeiting. Likewise, simple steps taken inside any company
can help you prevent having your checks copied and stolen or can stop
you from accepting similarly bad forms of payment. These steps are
applicable to all, from multi-national chains to single-store
independents.
Unfortunately, as Abagnale said, many companies pass up this
education in lieu of speed at the checkout or in the accounting
department. And that permits these simple crimes to happen again and
again.
Education doesn't stop at the front end. Today's technology also
enables a new level of unscrupulous behavior inside your company, yet
many (if not most) are doing a poor job of educating staff on ethics
policies. Marianne Jennings, a business professor at Arizona State
who teaches about ethics, detailed the crisis facing American
businesses. As she reviewed the many companies who have endured
ethical problems, the litany she gave extended sadly into the food
industry. Her insights follow...
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The Five Trends You Don't Want to Miss in 2006
It's been said that the future is not what it used to be.
These words are particularly relevant in a world of rapid-fire
change where expecting the unexpected has become essential for
decision-makers. It is the only way to understand and act on the
complexities of human behavior, and is increasingly important if
economic growth slows and consumer spending weakens.
Consumers are not one monolithic group but rather a loose
confederation of segments with individual needs. From our research
and analysis, this will impact our marketplace in several key ways
this year. Following are five key trends that we believe will shape
the industry in 2006.
One of the most important - and widely discussed - trends is the
mammoth baby boom generation. The first wave turns 60 this year.
However, advertising that appeals to older boomers may not strike a
chord with younger ones. Marketers must cater to more discrete groups
in order to avoid a "boomer backlash".
Meanwhile, all demographic groups are focusing on health and
wellness issues - particularly those related to obesity, high blood
pressure and diabetes. And while the low-carb craze has run its
course, it will be replaced by foods high in antioxidants and those
with a low glycemic index - both of which are likely to post
double-digit gains in 2006.
However, people are not giving up indulgences, and this will
result in a comeback for beer in 2006 as America's beverage, led by
such packaging innovations as mini kegs and cooler packs as well new
flavors that run the gamut from the robust to milder seasonal flavors
such as blueberry and citrus.
On the retail front, a new generation of dollar stores will seize
market share with a broader selection of merchandise and expanded
price points that target higher-income consumers, creating a "value
store" segment that will redefine the retail channel.
Redefining the marketplace also means focusing on service rather
than convenience. Supermarkets will hire nurses or health consultants
to address basic medical issues. Beyond health and wellness, raising
the bar on customer service will mean everything from recommending
the right wine for a particular entrée to having employees in the
aisles helping people reach products on high shelves or read labels.
The future is now, and those who recognize and act on these and
other trends will be the ones who flourish.
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New Day, new challenges...ethics
The clearest demonstration of how words and deeds clash was
illustrated by Prof. Marianne Jennings of Arizona State as she
offered a series of quotes from business leaders, all on whom called
for the highest level of ethical behavior in their companies. Sadly,
the quotes all came from executives currently in jail or now facing
trial from Enron, Tyco and WorldCom. Jennings explained that many of
those companies had incredibly well written ethics policies that were
clearly never read or enforced.
(In fact, Jennings managed to buy a copy of the Enron ethics
policy on E-Bay. It came from a disgruntled ex-employee and sadly,
Jennings said, the policy was in pristine condition: unwrapped,
unread and unused.)
Executives have the challenge of living by these policies and
making sure their entire organizations do the same. What's more,
reports of problems must be treated with seriousness, not ignored as
has happened in many of the companies she profiled.
But Jennings advice made it clear the price ignoring companies
can pay for ignoring ethics, especially in today's high-tech world
where counterfeiting, data theft and more are almost daily headlines.
Jennings detailed the travails of Martha Stewart to make this point.
In the end, she said, the biggest impact on Stewart was the loss of
confidence in her own company and the accompanying loss of stock
value. Companies who aren't trusted, Jennings said, pay a price. For
supermarkets, that face the shoppers more than most businesses, this
trust is essential.
Writing about ethics always seems like preaching. But sadly, it's
a topic that requires discussion, as do efforts to thwart crime.
Neither are news stories, but told against the backdrop of today's
technology, they matter more than ever.
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Green cleaning: a breath of fresh air
When domestic cleaning crews wear facemasks, that's a sign they're
sensitive to chemicals in sanitation products. Perhaps not
coincidentally, consumers have begun to seek environmentally gentler
alternatives such as citrus- or tea tree oil-based formulas. These
concerns heighten in households with babies, elderly and
disease-compromised adults.
The influx of new category entries has turned the cleaning
category into a bevy of colors, scents and easier-to-take sprays,
solutions and powders. A recent three-year stretch was intense for
launches: 498 out of 2,508 active SKUs in 2002, 588 out of 2,823
active SKUs in 2003, and 433 out of 2,931 active SKUs in 2004,
representing close to a 20% annual change in category assortments in
food-drug-mass, according to ACNielsen Strategic Planner data, which
doesn't break out green products specifically. This activity finally
settled down in 2005.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Responding to this manufacturer innovation, consumers have driven
positive turnarounds in four of the five biggest segments of the
household cleaning category during calendar 2005:
- Sales of non-disinfectant cleaners edged up 1.3% to $445.2
million in food-drug-mass stores (excluding Wal-Mart) following a
5.7% sales decline in 2004.
- Sales of disinfectant cleaners rose 1.3% to $204.6 million
following sales falloffs of 11.8% in 2003 and 4.2% in 2004.
- Sales of bathroom cleaners were essentially flat, down just
0.1% to $205.5 million following three years of declines, the latest
an 8.8% slip in 2004.
- Sales of disinfectants soared 21.0% to $164.8 million
following a three-year downturn, the latest a 3.5% fall in 2004.
Smaller segments showed more dramatic dollar sales gains. Sales
of powder cleaners grew 25.1% to $3.4 million after declines of 29.7%
in 2003 and 21.9% in 2004. Sales of upholstery cleaners rebounded
13.4% to $6.4 million after a three-year double-digit slide. Sales of
metal cleaners rose 11.3% to $31.2 million, up from a 2.9% bump in
2004.
When considering equivalized unit volume trends in the four large
segments, they followed the same pattern as dollar sales. For
example, non-disinfectant cleaners' growth was essentially flat, down
0.3% to 5.6 billion units, compared with a 2.0% decline in 2004.
Disinfectant cleaners improved by 1.9% to 2.8 billion units, versus a
0.4% gain in 2004. Bathroom cleaners lost only 0.8% to 2.1 billion
units, better than the 8.5% slide in 2004. Disinfectants soared by
42.5% to 1.3 billion units, more than tripling the 12.7% rise in 2004.
The smaller segments that showed strong dollar growth also posted
impressive equivalized volume trends. Among them: Powder cleaners'
velocity jumped 23.4% to 19.7 million units versus two consecutive
annual 19.7% declines. Upholstery cleaners rose 35.8% to 31.4 million
units, ending a three-year slide. Metal cleaners were up 12.7% to
101.2 million units, nearly doubling a 7.2% gain in 2004.
Meanwhile, portable steam cleaners, possibly the greenest
alternative, have begun to show up on retail shelves in mass and drug
stores. Retailing for about $50, these "green machines" may represent
a potential category step-up for supermarkets that would distribute
them.
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Study: Americans among most cash-strapped
The United States often is called the "leader of the free world."
Now, it seems that it better be free or many Americans won't be able
to afford it.
A new study from ACNielsen says that Americans are the most
cash-poor consumers in the world, with almost a quarter of all US
consumers saying that once they have covered their essential living
expenses, they have no money left over.
The US was tied with Portugal for this dubious honor, with 22% of
consumers in both countries saying they have no spare cash. In third
place was Canada at 19%, followed by the UK (17%), France (16%), the
Netherlands (15%), Turkey (14%), Germany (13%), Chile (12%), and
South Korea (12%).
The news isn't entirely gloomy, however. According to the study,
"While the U.S. may have the highest percentage of consumers with no
spare cash, this number has dropped six percentage points since the
last ACNielsen survey in May 2005. The improvement dovetails with
other signs that U.S. consumers are trying to improve their financial
situation. For example, of U.S. consumers who do have spare cash,
their first priority for that money is debt repayment (42%). This
number has increased nine percentage points since October 2004.
Additionally, more than one third (35%) of U.S. consumers report
putting spare cash into savings - up 12 percentage points since
October 2004."
The report added that "other priorities for spare money include
out-of-home entertainment (28%), new clothes (25%), home improvements
and decorating (24%), and holidays and vacations (24%)."
The ACNielsen study also asked consumers what their priorities
are in terms of balancing their budgets. Two-thirds said they wanted
to cut down on take-out meals, followed by saving on gas and
electricity (61%), cutting down on out-of-home entertainment (60%),
reducing expenditures on new clothes (54%), driving less and saving
on gas (47%), switching to grocery private labels (42%), delaying
upgrading technology (41%), eliminating vacations (38%), and delaying
the replacement of household appliances (37%). Other budget balancing
techniques include using coupons more often (cited by 19% of
consumers) and buying cheaper brands of alcohol (8%).
The findings are from ACNielsen's Online Consumer Confidence
Study, a twice-yearly global survey that gauges consumers' current
confidence levels, spending habits/intentions and major concerns.
This survey marks the third in the series, the first of which began
in October 2004.
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How are we doing?
Facts, Figures & the Future was born in October of 2002.
After a near three and a half years of growth, we'd like to check in
with our readers and find out how we are doing. Take a few miutes to
take our quick poll, so we can see how F3 can benefit you the most.
After all, we have you, our readers, to thank for a great three and a
half years! We will be giving away a copy of ACNielsen's
Consumer-Centric Category Management
to ten random respondents!
CLICK HERE
to take our quick poll.
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Value retailing keeps winning
While upscale grocery retailers like Whole Foods and Wegmans continue
to win a share of the wallet among upscale consumers, the latest
update of our key Channel Blurring metrics shows that "value"
retailers continue to expand their shopper bases via store expansion
and increased shopper appeal. Since 2001, Dollar Stores have seen
household penetration for their retail channel grow from 59% to 67%
of households. Over that same period, Supercenter penetration grew
from 51% to 58% of households. While household penetration for the
Warehouse Club channel remained flat, growth in household population
means that the channel did experience shopper base growth.
As independent Drug retailers closed their doors or were acquired
by larger chains such as CVS and Walgreens, shopper penetration
declined by three percentage points for the Drug channel. However,
both CVS and Walgreens drove faster penetration growth than any U.S.
retailer that we measured. Additionally, Kmart's softness and
conversions of Wal-Mart's regular discount formats to Supercenters
has the Mass-Merchandiser channel dropping eight percentage points to
87% household penetration in 2005.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Value retailers are also winning by grabbing more shopping trips.
Dollar Stores, Warehouse Clubs, and Supercenters all experienced
increased shopping frequency in their formats with trips to
Supercenters growing from 20 trips per shopping household in 2001 to
27 in 2005. Trips to the Mass-Merchandiser channel fell by six trips,
and the Grocery channel continues to suffer with an eight trip
decline since 2001.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Finally, while Warehouse Club retailers are the best at driving
large shopping trips in terms of overall dollar basket ring, the
growth in this measure within the Supercenter channel is most
impressive. In 2001, Supercenter shoppers spent $51 per trip, and
that has jumped to a whopping $60 per trip in 2005. At the same time,
the average basket ring within the Grocery channel increased just $3
per trip as pressures from Wal-Mart and other value retailers had
most Grocery retailers looking for ways to cut their prices.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
2006 has started another exciting year in the world of
CPG-retailing. Supervalu's acquisition of Albertson's Grocery stores
and CVS's acquisition of Albertson's Drug stores will take some time
to shake out. However, we should expect both will close a number of
under-performing stores and that other retailers will likely see some
benefit from those activities. Consolidations and store closures
will continue to be a hot topic in the industry for the next several
years.
Wal-Mart Expansion Impact
In our May 2005 issue, we included an article showing Wal-Mart's
impact across U.S. households, by examining differences in Wal-Mart
share importance and consumer acceptance. We've also updated those
metrics with full-year 2005 data and thought that our readers would
like to see the latest facts. As a reminder, we used our ACNielsen
Homescan Consumer Panel to segment Wal-Mart banner stores into four
geographic areas based on Wal-Mart's overall share of the market
within the 48 contiguous states. Shares were calculated on an
"all-outlet" dollar basis yielding four state groupings with the
following characteristics:
- High share states: Wal-Mart all-outlet dollar share exceeds
30%
- Medium share states: Wal-Mart share between 20% and 29%
- Low share states: Wal-Mart share between 13% and 20%
- Expansion states: Wal-Mart share < 13%
Wal-Mart's share position has a significant impact on the
relative strength of competitive retail channels. Within the high
share states, Supercenters are the dominant retail channel capturing
31% of the market, and grocery stores commanded a 22% share. Wal-Mart
banner stores captured an amazing 36% share of all-outlet dollar
sales in the area. In the remaining three areas, grocery stores hold
the number one position with shares of 30% in the medium share
states, 34% in the low share states, and 37% in the expansion states.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
In our May issue we reported that Wal-Mart's success is driven by
their ability to capture a greater number of shopping trips and our
latest shopper insights shows the same pattern. For this issue, we
took a look at how well Wal-Mart is driving market share among low
versus high income shoppers. Based on the successes of Target,
Wal-Mart officials have been quoted as saying they would like to
improve sales among more affluent households. As noted in the
attached slide, Wal-Mart's desire to capture increased spending seems
appropriate as Wal-Mart's share of all-outlet spending drops off for
households with incomes of $50,000 + across all four of the state
groupings - with a noticeable opportunity to drive higher sales among
households with incomes of $70,000 plus. The big question is, does
Wal-Mart have the right store formats and product assortment to
accomplish this goal?
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
For further information or to arrange a comprehensive
presentation on consumer shopping patterns, please contact Todd Hale
at thale@acnielsen.com or
859-905-4615.
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St. Patrick's Day offers opportunities galore for high-end imported beers
It's not exactly breaking news that the beer category hasn't been
doing so well these days. The domestic beer category, which is
propped up by the light segment, has been flat (or even in decline)
for nearly a decade. Indeed, a recent poll conducted by the Gallup
Organization showed that 39% of those American consumers responding
identified wine as their favorite drink. Meanwhile, only 36% chose
beer as their preferred libation.
But then again, things rarely are as they first appear.
According to ACNielsen data, dollar sales for the beer category
have increased marginally (low single digits) in each of the past
four years (from the 52 weeks ending 1/05/02 to the 52 weeks ending
12/31/05), and 11.6% overall during that span. Not on fire, but not
in decline, either. And in a category accounting for $8.6 billion in
sales, a two-percent increase (which was seen in 2005) is
significant, indeed.
By drilling down further, we can see that most of the additional
dollars are being driven by brands on the high end of the price
spectrum - primarily imported brews. This explains the fact that
dollar sales have outpaced overall consumption - that is, equivalized
volume (or EQ volume) on a 288-ounce basis, by nearly fivefold over
the aforementioned period (11.6 percent to 2.4 percent). The two
percent decline in SKU volume over that period is easily explained by
the shift in popularity from 6-packs to 12-packs, which has become
the preferred package for the beer consumer.
The Ringin' of the Green
On March 17, the whole world becomes Irish, and celebrations,
parades and parties abound. And, of course, beer becomes the official
libation of the day, which creates a critical profit opportunity for
retailers who recognize the "new" beer category generated by recent
market dynamics, and merchandise accordingly.
The amount of imported beer sold during St. Patrick's Day week
significantly exceeds the amount sold in the weeks surrounding the
holiday. According to ACNielsen data, imported beer generated $30.5
million during the week ending March 19, 2005. That was 4.5% more
than the average of the week prior to and the week after St.
Patrick's Day (weeks ending 3/12/05 and 3/26/05, respectively).
Equivalized volume (i.e., overall consumption) of imports was also up
3.3%. The increase was largely driven by the ale/stout/other segment
- traditionally thought of as "Irish" in character - which saw a
38.8% increase in sales and 40% increase in EQ volume over the
surrounding weeks.
Click on thumbnails to enlarge
Use this link if you've received the text version
for graph one (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Feb06Beer1.gif) and this
link for graph two (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Feb06Beer2.gif)
Click on thumbnails to enlarge
Use this link if you've received the text version
for graph one (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Feb06Beer3.gif) and this
link for graph two (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Feb06Beer4.gif)
The astute retailer can turn St. Patrick's Day week into a
short-term cash bonanza by prominently featuring Irish brands in
their product mix. According to ACNielsen data, beers brewed in the
Emerald Isle and imported into the U.S. saw a 75.8% increase in sales
and 79.3% bump in overall consumption (EQ volume) during St.
Patrick's Day week in 2005 vis-à-vis the average of the weeks
proceeding and following the holiday.
The moral of the story: St. Patrick's Day is a great day for the
Irish... and for retailers who know how to anticipate, react and
capitalize on the magnificent profit opportunity that exists in this
short sales window.
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Kings of the sea sell slower in-line
Retailers are waging an upstream battle to grow shelf-stable fish
sales. Consumers must wonder, 'Why buy canned when I can buy fresh at
a service seafood counter?' This is particularly true since canned
and pouched varieties are priced as high as $9 per pound, and stores
commonly promote fresh farm-raised salmon at $6 per pound.
Nutritional experts agree that fish is a generally safe, low-fat
protein source, with some varieties rich in Omega-3 fatty acids. Yet
the risk of mercury contamination is also present. The Food and Drug
Administration has made recurring statements since 2001 that have
dampened consumption.
The latest category blast comes from the Chicago Tribune,
whose December 2005 report contends that canned tuna poses more of a
health hazard than the public realizes. The impact of this coverage
is too new to be measured, but judging by the persistent category
downturn since 2001, it will likely affect purchases.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Tuna remains king of the category, accounting for $1.0 billion of
a $1.4 billion canned seafood business in food-drug-mass (excluding
Wal-Mart) in 2005, according to ACNielsen Strategic Planner data.
Tuna flat-lined in the latest 12 months, registering a 0.2% dollar
sales gain versus a 5.6% falloff in 2004. The overall canned seafood
category didn't do as well. It edged down by 0.2% following a 5.1%
slide the year before.
Equivalized unit volume data show an identical percentage slide
for total shelf-stable seafood in 2005, yet a more precipitous 7.9%
downturn for tuna. Over a longer period, canned tuna fell greater
than the seafood category, by 5.0% in 2002, 0.7% in 2003, 8.6% in
2004 and 8.7% in 2005. By contrast, envelope packaging charged ahead
in those years by 54.4%, 15.8%, 9.4% and 7.5%.
Convenience and portability are driving this notable shift in
tuna sales at the shelf. In 2001, canned tuna sales alone exceeded
$1.0 billion. By today, the canned segment is down to $876.3 million,
tuna in envelopes is up to $134.1 million, and tuna in jars is a
nominal amount under $50,000. Whereas canned sales have slid every
year, envelope gains jumped 65.6%, 18.1%, 8.2% and 11.3% in
successive years.
Salmon, the second-largest segment at $137.3 million, has posted
dollar sales declines of 6.6% in 2004 and 1.7% in 2005. Similar to
tuna, its bright spot is in envelope packages, which grew from zero
in 2001 to $12.7 million in 2005, approaching ten percent of
shelf-stable salmon sales.
Total shelf-stable seafood category data show an unrelenting
downward spiral in virtually every four-week period of 2004 and 2005.
Even the four-week period ending on December 31, 2005, which included
at least several days since the Tribune report, showed a 2.7%
equivalized unit volume slide in tuna from the year before, and a
2.2% skid in total seafood from the year-earlier period.
Among the many segments in shelf-stable seafood, only canned
shrimp and canned crab posted as many as ten months of positive
growth during the past two years, in month-to-month comparisons.
Dollar sales of shrimp advanced 3.9% to $24.9 million in 2005 on zero
unit growth, and crab clawed ahead by 1.1% to $36.7 million on a 2.6%
equivalized unit decline in 2005.
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Mixed Signals From Asia For US Beef Industry
The past month has been something of a roller coaster ride for US
beef exporters trying to regain entry into Asian markets. On the one
hand, countries such as Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan
decided to once again allow for the import of US beef into their
countries after some two years of banning these products' import
because of concerns about bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE),
better known as mad cow disease.
But then, renewed fears emerged as a discovery of beef directly
in violation of established regulations was discovered by Japanese
authorities, leading them to immediately suspend US beef imports for
the time being. It was a fascinating confluence of events, creating
short-term and long-term questions about the future of US beef
exports and the credibility of US screening procedures.
For example, the Singapore decision was based on what the
government called a detailed risk assessment based on World Health
Organization (WHO) guidelines for dealing with countries that pose a
minimal BSE risk. The new conditions require that only deboned US
beef cuts can come into the country and even then must be from cattle
younger than 30 months of age.
Singapore's Agri-Food & Veterinary Authority (AVA) also said that
the imports are subject to inspections to assure that they do not
carry risk materials such as the brain and spinal tissues associated
with the spread of mad cow disease.
As these decisions were being announced by the Singapore
government, they were received with a certain amount of trepidation
by its citizens, some of whom were described in the local media as
being "concerned" about the renewal of imports. They then could not
have been enthralled with the new suspension of US beef imports by
the Japanese government after a shipment was found to be in direct
violation of established regulations - animal spines were found in
three boxes of frozen US beef being brought into the country. The
discovery reignited concerns in Japan about the possibility that
BSE-tainted beef could be coming from US suppliers.
The new suspension came just a month after a two-year-old ban on
US beef was lifted after months of intense negotiation, on the
condition that imported US beef come from cattle no older than 20
months and that spinal cords, brains and other parts blamed for
spreading the human variant of mad-cow disease be removed.
Before the ban, which was implemented after the first case of BSE
was discovered on US soil more than two years ago, Japan was the most
lucrative market in the world for American beef, importing more than
$1.7 billion worth in 2003. (By comparison, only five percent of
Singapore's beef came from the US before its 2003 ban.)
While the halting of shipments is described as "temporary," it
remains possible that a broader and long-lasting ban could be
reinstated.
Ironically, just after all these events unfolded, there was
another mad cow-related piece of news, with a
Washington Post report that the US Department of Agriculture
(USDA) "overruled field scientists' recommendation to retest an
animal that was suspected of harboring mad cow disease last year
because they feared a positive finding would undermine confidence in
the agency's testing procedures," the department's inspector general
said yesterday.
"After protests from the inspector general, the specimen was sent
to England for retesting and produced the nation's second confirmed
case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), also known as mad cow
disease."
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ACNielsen estimates that in 2004, over $11.9 billion was spent across
all retail channels in the candy category which includes chocolate
candy, non-chocolate candy, dietetic candy, lollipops, hard rolled
candy, marshmallows, candy kits, and breath sweeteners.
The following slides indicate the percentage of households who
buy each type of candy, a sampling of higher indexing household types
who buy products in the overall candy category, and channel share of
category dollar sales.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Facts, Figures and the Future is copyrighted and may not be
reproduced without prior permission. For more information about the
publication, please contact Phil Lempert at 323-860-3070 or via
e-mail at
PLempert@FactsFiguresFuture.com
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