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Spring is here!
Ahhh! Take a deep breath ... and a look around. Just around the
corner are chirping birds, warm breezes, blooming flowers and of
course the Annual FMI Convention and Consumer 360.
For our shoppers, the outdoor grills are heating up and many are
already thinking about which diet they will try this year.
The "Consumer Obsession" with food continues ... and it is
becoming pervasive across all media. Recipe and shopping tip pod
casts, 24 hour satellite radio stations devoted to food and recipes,
over 1,790,000,000 food-centric websites (according to Google) and
even prime time network television celebrity cook-offs all underscore
the fact that many of our customers are more knowledgeable about
ingredients and food preparation. Which begs the question of just
how knowledgeable and well-trained are the people we have designated
to help them.
A couple years ago in this column I suggested that the time was
ripe for a "Nutritional Correction" as consumers, brands and
retailers all seemed to (finally!) become aware that it was time that
we added more whole grains, lowered fat, lowered calories and
replaced or eliminated certain ingredients in our everyday foods. And
the impact was enormous.
Now I would like to suggest we begin a "Food Comprehension
Campaign" designed not just to correct the health and wellness
confusion that runs rampant (low fat vs. low carb is a great place to
start) in the minds of consumers ... but to also retrain our own.
As an industry we put billions of dollars to work on consumer
campaigns that are designed to sell more products, and hopefully as
David Ogilvy would have put forth, to inform shoppers about the
benefits and differentiation of one product over another. But what
about taking some of those dollars to educate not just the in-store
staff, but also the office and sales personnel across all phases of
the industry?
The food broker rep whose job it is to work with a department
manager quite possibly has the best chance of effectively
communicating the latest report on the benefits of Omega-3s or the
benefits of a low fat lifestyle.
More often than not, our CPG brands have an underutilized
resource: their consumer affairs departments and call centers. These
folks are well versed in the latest food news and preparations, know
how to communicate well and have terrific listening skills. Maybe
it's time to get them out of their cubicles and toss their headphones
... and have these people share their insights and knowledge in our
boardrooms and marketing meetings. Not in a 250 page report, but in a
live 30 minute discussion.
The truth is that spring actually brings us our most severe
weather patterns as the warm air begins to invade from lower
latitudes while cold air is still pushing from the Polar Regions.
It's the time of the year where turbulence and shaking things up a
bit is most accepted.
As we walk the aisles and attend the educational sessions at both
the FMI and Consumer 360 this spring lets use the tools we acquire to
build our own food comprehension and meet the needs of our shoppers.
Otherwise, they will find people that can...
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April 12, 2006
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The Meat Market
Although tastes and product offerings change constantly, the
marketing power of meat remains undiminished. In fact, it may be
more critical than ever in winning shopper loyalty and building
shopping trip satisfaction.
Retailers looking for points of differentiation in today's
marketplace frequently cite fresh foods as the key battleground for
consumer loyalty. In this case, shopper feedback makes it clear that
perception aligns perfectly with reality.
A new consumer study from FMI and the American Meat Institute
details the important role meat plays to the shopper and to all
retailers looking for a marketing edge, especially for traditional
operators. The vast majority of shoppers use supermarkets for food
shopping trips and the advantage for traditional stores competing
with supercenters grows when the shopping trip includes meat.
A traditional supermarket holds the loyalty of 86 percent of its
regular shoppers for meat purchases. In sharp contrast, supercenters
lose more than 40 percent of their regular shoppers on meat
purchases. Supermarkets gain the largest percentage of those
shoppers, followed by warehouse clubs and butcher shops.
Holding this advantage into the future will require further
innovation, but again there are promising signs. Organic meat can be
a real point of differentiation, especially among shoppers who say
they are looking for better tasting and more nutritional products.
Supermarkets win a large share of the organic meat market, but
the potential is even larger. Currently only 17 percent of shoppers
say they purchased organic meat in the past three months, while 20
percent say they really don't understand how organic meat is
different. Another 14 percent are uncertain if they have actually
purchased an organic product. The need and potential for educating
these shoppers is clear.
However, the results may not come quickly. Less than half of
shoppers are aware of the widespread efforts to cross-merchandise
other products with meat, and the use of meal suggestions is even
lower, despite shoppers' continued complaints about their lack of
time or menu ideas.
Some other key findings from this special study are:
Enjoyment of shopping ties closely to how the primary shopper
feels about cooking. Shoppers who like to cook make more food
shopping trips each week and spend more money overall.
Slightly more than half of all meat shoppers stock up when
they are in the store, buying large purchases and freezing most of
them for use over time. However, these shoppers are also more likely
to prepare home cooked meals.
Pricing remains a key driver of meat purchases, as shoppers
check prices across the store and throughout the meat department.
Chicken is the most frequently prepared dish, with 30 percent
cooking it at least three times a week and 90 percent doing so at
least once weekly. Beef follows closely behind.
Ready to eat products continue to grow in use, especially
among younger shoppers (ages 18-24).
The meat study was released at the Annual Meat Conference held
each March by FMI, AMI and additional commodity groups. To order a
copy of this interesting new study, visit FMI's website:
www.fmi.org.
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Helping the Industry Determine "What's Next?"
The pace of life is faster than ever. Time-strapped consumers
seek convenience, but demand value. Marketers have more data than
ever - retail tracking, consumer purchases, loyalty cards,
advertising information, to name just a few. Our world is also
changing. Leading economic countries are aging, and younger, more
diverse populations are growing in markets around the world.
We in the industry have become pretty good at understanding what
is happening today. We can look at past consumer behavior and product
movement, we can segment consumers and shopping trips, we can look at
underlying changes to demographics and product mix. But more and
more, our clients are asking us a key question: "What's Next?"
How will retailing evolve? How will technology help us - and
hinder us in the future? What will consumers want and need from me?
How can I anticipate - and create - the next big thing?
Next month, professionals will have the opportunity to discover
what will be next at the Consumer 360 conference. Many of you already
know that Consumer 360 is the #1 marketing information event for the
consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry. In 2005, more than 1,000
industry professionals attended, and we anticipate an even greater
show this year. Our past attendees have told us what they liked and
what they'd like to see more of, and we have delivered.
Speakers from Coca-Cola, Royal Ahold, SUPERVALU and Unilever, are
a few examples of industry leaders who will be headlining our main
stage. Noted futurist Andrew Zolli will definitely give us a taste of
What's Next in our industry. We also have the pleasure of welcoming
Facts, Figures & the Future's own Phil Lempert, who will lead
a panel discussion with area consumers, live, during the show.
And the keynote presentations are just the beginning. Past
attendees know that the value in attending Consumer 360 is in the
workshops, which provide real-world examples and case studies of
business issues and how to solve them. The workshops will cover
consumer trends, retail trends, marketing efficiencies, effective
targeting and in-store execution.
This year, we have expanded our learning tracks by adding "Super
Sessions," with clients and third-party participation for more
in-depth study, interaction and learning.
We are also bringing back, by popular demand, the Express
Coaching booth, sponsored by the Network of Executive Women (NEW).
These complimentary 30-minute sessions for both men and women feature
Express Coaching Sessions led by renowned personal coaches.
Participants will gain feedback and advice on how to improve their
business skills to contribute more to their organization and
establish themselves as a leader.
Consumer 360 will take place May 16-18 at the J.W. Marriott in
Palm Desert, California. If you have not done so, please visit
www.Consumer360.com to see great
conference we have put together. If you are interested, please
register soon - Our earlybird discounts end April 17.
We all look forward to seeing you there and discovering What's
Next for our industry!
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For nuts, a pause in their growth
If consumers could design the perfect nut, it would be organic (for
purity), low-sodium (for better health) and private label (value
prices). Data pinpoints these as the hottest sectors of the $2.11
billion nut category in food, drug and mass for the 52 weeks ended
Feb. 25, 2006 - up from $1.57 billion four years ago, state ACNielsen
Strategic Planner figures.
What's giving nuts their sales energy? A magnet to the
nutrition-inclined - they're high in protein, fiber, calcium and
iron, with many fats, the good kind - packers are adding new flavor
varieties such as black pepper cashews and wasabi peanuts, although
so far these are more evident in high-end natural food and specialty
stores than mainstream supermarket shelves. One result: people may be
thinking of nuts as a "healthier" salty snack, and with added
varieties and higher-profile merchandising throughout the store, the
category appears ready to gain snack share and a more prominent role
in meal recipes.
While equivalized units have grown in three out of the past four
years from 401.6 million pounds to 476.1 million pounds, there are
signs of consumer price resistance that could actually prove to be a
margin boon to retailers who capitalize by displaying store brands
near high-traffic deli, cheese and holiday food sections. Private
label has surpassed the percentage growth rate of brands in each of
the past four years in the category overall: successive gains of 6.2
percent, 13.4 percent, 21.2 percent and 6.8 percent for store brands,
vs. 2.4 percent, 11.6 percent, 7.9 percent and 3.4 percent for name
brands.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
This encroachment on brand share was led most prominently the
past two years by the massive bagged segment, in which private label
grew by 32.7 percent and 21.5 percent respectively vs. 8.4 percent
and 2.3 percent in brands.
Since people pay $4.63 per pound for branded nuts on average, the
$4.00 they pay for private label seems a significantly better value -
and much closer to the price range of other salty snacks.
Not all consumers are price conscious, however. Sales of organic
nuts have been leaping ahead each year in double- and triple-digits,
show ACNielsen LabelTrends data in food-drug-mass (excluding
Wal-Mart). In successive 52-week periods, dollar sales of UPC-coded
packages of organic nuts grew by 30.4 percent, 39.6 percent, 45.5
percent and 131.6 percent, and equivalized unit volume gained
comparably by 28.3 percent, 31.7 percent, 26.0 percent and 92.4
percent. The organic segment's $9 million of annual sales are a
minuscule part of the category for now, but its growth shows
consumers are making nuts part of their broader shift toward organic
foods in their quest for better health and environment. That
commitment comes at a price: $6.44 per pound.
More integral to the category's management is the consistent
importance to consumers of no-salt and low-salt varieties. According
to LabelTrends data, UPC-coded packages of these nuts currently
account for close to one-quarter of all nuts sold in food-drug-mass -
21.7 percent - compared with a 21.5 percent share four years earlier.
Their dollar sales have risen steadily, by 1.7 percent, 7.6 percent,
15.3 percent and 6.9 percent in successive years.
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Beauty Market Continues Strong
The African-American beauty market has convincingly come of age -
with high penetration of many appearance products bought at full
price the vast majority of time - show the ACNielsen Homescan
Consumer Facts Report for the 52 weeks ended July 2, 2005.
The way the African-American woman purchases cosmetics parallels
that of non-African-Americans, the data reveal. For example, the
cosmetics department penetrates 57.3 percent of African-American
households vs. 61.9 percent of other women. She spends an average of
$14.90 per year on mass market beauty items, the sum of three annual
trips with an average department spend of $4.92; this is a bit lower
than the $24.91 other women spend, the total of 3.9 trips with an
average department spend of $6.39.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Her average price of a beauty item is $2.79 with a purchase cycle
of 59 days. By comparison, other women have an average beauty ticket
of $3.77 with a 52-day purchase cycle.
Six out of ten African-American women are repeat buyers of
cosmetics vs. seven in ten of other women in the United States. She
uses a manufacturer coupon on just one beauty purchase in 50 vs. 1 in
20 among other women.
These consumer behaviors warrant ethnic beauty a strong foothold
in many of the nation's mass, drug and food stores, especially where
assortments suit the traffic patterns and beauty demands of
African-American women and are likely to ensure their satisfaction.
Since cosmetics is one department that focuses on offering women a
brief respite from the day's pressures, having it right is a plus and
having it wrong can be a deal-breaker in her relationship with the
store.
She is a powerful buyer of beauty products. In no less than 16
beauty categories, African-American household penetration is greater
than that of other women. Some are expected: ethnic hair preparations
(61.7% vs. 1.9%) and skin bleaching/toning (5.9% vs. 1.1%). Many
aren't: hand and body lotions (65.4% vs. 51.2%), skin creams (16.6%
vs. 10.9%), fragrances (27.2% vs. 23.2%), hair care and fashion
accessories (51.0% vs. 46.6%), nail polish (28.2% vs. 27.2%), talcum
and dusting powder (8.8% vs. 5.4%), to name a few.
In 14 segments, her average annual household spend is in double
digits. They include: hair growth product ($28.71), men's hair color
($27.68), women's fragrances ($23.23), skin care preparations
($22.21), men's hair spray ($20.28), women's gift sets and skin care
packages ($16.89), face cleansers/creams/lotions ($15.13), women's
hair color ($15.07), ethnic hair preparations ($14.72), hand and body
lotions ($12.67), false eyelashes and accessories ($12.10), other
non-men's hair preparations ($11.32), liquid foundation ($10.81), and
acne remedies ($10.35). Most of these spend levels either exceed or
approach those of non-African-Americans.
All retailers can apply these insights, though it seems likely
that merchandising activities will work best when aligned to the
stores that cater to their target markets. However, all supermarkets
can use strong ethnic beauty assortments to leverage their one-stop
appeal to African-American women.
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Private Label Gaining Share of Wallet & Share of Mind
For the past 8 years, sales of private label consumer-packaged-goods
have grown at a rate of about twice that of branded products. As
reported in our annual ACNielsen
U.S. Private Label Consumer report, this growth has been
driven by increases in both the frequency in which U.S. households
purchase private label and in the quantity that they purchase per
shopping trip. An increasing number of households are becoming
multi-category private label buyers and private label products are
seeing growth outside of historically "over-developed" private label
buying households. As retailers look to improve their profitability
and retail consolidation continues in the U.S., we should expect to
see continued growth of private label products at the expense of
branded products. However, brands should not run and hide as they
still account for the lion's share of sales across most U.S.
retailers (notable exceptions from the likes of Aldi, Trader Joe's
and Save-A-Lot).
ACNielsen has been working on a "ground-breaking" private label
study with Daymon Worldwide, DemandTec and McKinsey. Final study
results will be presented in Chicago at the Daymon Worldwide Forum
scheduled for May 5th and 6th and at the FMI show on May 7th and 9th.
The purpose of the ACNielsen portion of the study was to provide
consumer research of behaviors and attitudes that demonstrate how
retailers can build profitable customer loyalty and competitive
differentiation though private label brands. We thought our F3
readers might like to see a sneak preview of our study results, so
here are a few facts, figures and findings to peak your interest:
1. Retailers with greater focus on private label (i.e., those
with higher overall private label shares) are driving solid buying
behaviors and more positive consumer attitudes towards private label
- particularly among those households who drive the strongest sales
of private label products.
2. We fielded a 20 question survey to our ACNielsen Homescan
Consumer Panel to understand household perceptions or preferences
around private label versus branded products. Survey results were
tabulated to understand differences in consumer attitudes within
private label buyers who purchase in retailers with strong private
label programs and within households showing strong private label
commitment. To see what potential exists across households with low
versus high "ability to spend", we also examined results within low
versus top-spend "all-category" households. So what did we find?
a. When we asked households if "Store brands are a good
alternative to name brands", we found that most households see
private label as a good alternative. However, lower scores came from
households who were top "all-category" spenders.
b. A closer examination showed higher scores among medium and
high private label share retailers within the top-spend private label
buyers. While this was not true for the other private label spending
groups, it does illustrate that the better performing retailers (as
defined by those driving higher private label shares) are driving
stronger consumer attitudes regarding private label products. This
finding was evident across a number of other dimensions related to
private label perceptions and behaviors.
c. The lower ratings among top "all-category" spenders may
suggest opportunities for retailers to focus efforts around more
premium private label offerings. These lower ratings may also point
out the strength that branded products have among a set of "most
valuable" consumers who shop and buy in U.S. retailers. Whichever
the case, these consumers will likely see plenty of attention thrown
their way as retailers and brands look to capture their minds and
wallets.
For further information or to arrange a comprehensive
presentation on consumer shopping patterns, please contact Todd Hale
at thale@acnielsen.com or
859-905-4615.
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Rising Fuel Prices Start To Affect Consumer Habits
While fuel prices seem to have stabilized in recent months, in part
because of a warmer than usual winter in the Northeast United States,
the fact remains that the rising cost of gasoline at the pump remains
a concern both for consumers and for retailers who depend on shoppers
getting into their cars and venturing out.
While the evidence to this point suggests that many Americans
have factored the higher price of gasoline into their budgets and
lives, research by ACNielsen suggests that growing concerns about
price hikes - often keyed to the unstable political situation in the
Middle East - are prompting consumers to consider using their
vehicles less and cut down on non-essential living expenses.
More than 80 percent of consumers from all over the world
surveyed by ACNielsen on the Internet said that gasoline prices were
affecting their spending habits. And in the US, 88 percent of those
surveyed said that fuel prices were affecting them, and 70 percent of
Americans surveyed said they were responding to gas prices by
combining trips and errands.
Results from a SupermarketGuru.com quick poll reflect the same
attitude. Eighty-eight percent of respondents said that rising fuel
prices have had an effect on their financial situation, specifically
"driving less" (75%).
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
"The fact that so many US consumers are looking to combine
errands and trips in order to economize should inspire retailers to
push their convenience and merchandise variety messages," said Tom
Markert, ACNielsen's chief marketing and client service officer.
"Concepts like having a bank branch within a supermarket should be
actively promoted and further developed."
Of course, there is another option that retailers can take. Some
operators - especially specialty and fresh food-driven retailers such
as Wegmans, Ukrops, Dorothy Lane Market, and Stew Leonard's - are
working overtime to create and maintain differentiated store concepts
that are compelling enough for people to be willing to make the extra
trip. But it probably is fair to conclude that if gas prices
continue to rise, this will only ramp up the competitive pressures on
even the best and most unique operators.
One of the intriguing findings from the ACNielsen study is the
fact that there seems to be a growing global awareness that high fuel
prices have an impact on lifestyle even if you don't own a car or
drive one regularly. For example, among the ten countries where
consumers were most concerned about high fuel prices, a number of
them claimed not very high car ownership, for example, in the
Philippines, Hungary and Chile. In the US, Canada, Belgium, France,
Malaysia and South Africa, high levels of concern over price
increases corresponded with vehicle ownership (up to 90 percent).
There's also one alarming statistic from the US survey. While
Americans may be willing to make certain adjustments in their driving
patterns because of high fuel prices, only eight percent of those
surveyed said they would use public transportation more often to
compensate.
Consciousness raising apparently only goes so far.
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Olive oil sales flowing
For centuries, olive trees stood as symbols of peace, and their oils
as icons of purity, to such a point that the Greek poet Homer called
olive oil "liquid gold" and Hippocrates recommended it as a powerful
therapeutic.
Currently, the oil of this Mediterranean fruit is on a 20-year
romp in America in which it has:
- Claimed the largest share of pourable oil retail sales, a 34%
share in 2002, on its way to approaching a 50% share by 2007,
according to the North American Olive Oil Association (NAOOA).
- Penetrated more than one-third of the nation's homes, close
to 40 million, in 2002, a rise of eight percentage points in five
years, while other popular cooking oils declined, the trade group
added.
Health concerns are providing the sales impetus. Today's
consumers are in no mood to dispute the world's father of medicine,
as they face their obesity challenge and aim to emulate the
Mediterranean diets that result in less heart disease through lower
cholesterol and saturated fats. The category got a boost in 2004 when
the Food and Drug Administration-recognizing the cholesterol-free,
monounsaturated fat nature of olive oil-approved the heart-health
claim sought by NAOOA, and it hasn't looked back.
Olive oil dollar sales in food-drug-mass (excluding Wal-Mart) had
grown by 3.1 percent in the 52 weeks ended March 2, 2003 and by 5.9
percent in the following year. However, once the FDA word got out,
the growth pace roughly doubled to 12.7 percent the year after and
12.2 percent in the 52 weeks ended February 25, 2006, according to
ACNielsen Strategic Planner. With that growth spurt, olive oil sales
eclipsed the half-billion-dollar mark at $553.3 million-a full 38
percent higher than the $401.1 million level of just four years
earlier.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
While brands account for 83.6 percent of category sales, both
brands and private labels are sharing in the FDA-induced uplift. In
the past two years alone, brand sales have grown by 11.7 percent and
9.4 percent, and store-brand sales escalated by 19.0 percent and 28.6
percent.
By contrast, equivalized unit volume for olive oil has slid by
0.4 percent and 1.8 percent the past two years, suggesting that
people are willing to pay higher prices for this product.
Consumers are apparently of two minds as they pursue olive's
health benefits. They like the versatility of olive oil for sautéing
fish, meat, vegetables and salads, and they enjoy the variety of
green and black olives from different lands-Greece, Italy, Israel,
France, Mexico and more. ACNielsen data show black olive sales at
$216.2 million in food-drug-mass, up 0.4 percent in the latest 52
weeks, and green olive sales at $190.8 million, up 3.1 percent. Their
measured sales together are less than that of olive oil. However,
data reflect only prepackaged, UPC-coded products, and don't include
volume from the increasingly frequent bulk, self-service displays
that effectively bring an international feel to store aisles.
Freestanding olive carts near cheeses, wines and holiday foods,
along with secondary wings and endcaps near meats and fresh seafood
counters are increasingly common, perhaps following the demand of
ethnic populations around specific stores.
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The Wine Aisle: Where The Wild Things Are
There's an interesting phenomenon taking place in the nation's wine
departments. Increasingly, it is becoming a place where wild animals
roam.
No, we're not talking about obsessive wine buyers looking for a
bargain on a new pinot noir and willing to knock over just about
anyone to get it. We are, in fact, talking about the plethora of
animals that can be found on wine labels as vintners try new ways to
broaden their appeal to consumers.
No longer does it seem to be enough to have a great wine. Now,
it seems almost as important to have a cute wine label that will
capture a shopper's roving eye as they walk down the aisle.
Just the other day, we ventured into our local wine emporium ...
and there were shelves where it looked more like a zoo. There was
Wild Horse. Wallaby Creek. Duck Walk. Fish Eye. Little Penguin.
Monkey Bay. Goats Do Roam. Black Swan. 3 Blind Moose. Dancing
Bull. There also was the rooster on Hahn Estate wines, as well as a
wine called 47 Pound Rooster from Rex Goliath. There was the sheep
on the Dyed In The Wool wine bottle, the giraffe on the Long Neck
Wines bottle, and the kangaroo on the Oz wine bottle. There was even
a so-called "mythical create" called a "roogle" - a cross between an
eagle and a kangaroo - on the Roogle Rock wines, and something called
"Cockfighter's Ghost" that sort of speaks for itself.
Within the industry, these are called "critter labels," and they
essentially are the progeny of Yellow Tail wine from Australia, which
features a kangaroo and has proven to be an enormous success - it is
the top selling imported wine brand in the US. (A number of these
"critter labels" come from Australia, New Zealand and South Africa,
where many of the wines are excellent but the approach to names and
labels seems a little more whimsical than here in the US.)
ACNielsen reports that of the 438 new table wine brands with
sustained consumer sales introduced in the past three years, 77 - or
18 percent - featured a "critter" on the label. Combined with
existing critter labels, sales of critter-branded wine have reached
more than $600 million.
"Critter-labeled wines are on the rise, quickly gaining share in
the table wine category," said Danny Brager, vice president of
ACNielsen's Beverage Alcohol team. "The sales generated by new brands
featuring a critter outperform other new table wines by more than two
to one."
There are two interesting points to be made about the success of
the "critter labels." One is that most of these products tend be
priced a little higher than equivalent products with less attractive
labels, though they also are often sold at a discount because of
various promotions.
The other is that "critter wines" seem to grow the category,
creating new wine buyers or getting existing wine buyers to expand
their personal tastes and even spend more money on the purchase.
"While placing a critter on a label doesn't guarantee success, it is
important that wine makers realize that there is a segment of
consumers who don't want to have to take wine too seriously," said
Brager. "Not only are they willing to have fun with wine, they may
just feel 'good' about an animal label presentation."
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Pet food sales flat, despite nation's animal passion
Who loves you unconditionally, greets you at the door at the end of
your workday, and never gives away a secret you confided?
No wonder Americans can't do enough for their pets, and
increasingly treat them like family. Through food, owners
demonstrate their affection. That's fueling a boon in better-quality
pet food launches and sales, says Mintel research. With many new
products addressing joint or urinary tract health, hairball or tartar
control, and lifestage, category segmentation may soon pose space
challenges for food-drug-mass retailers trying to satisfy motivated
pet owners and hold onto pet food share.
With 2004 pet food sales at $14.2 billion in 2004 and estimated
at $14.5 billion in 2005, according to the American Pet Products
Manufacturers Association, food-drug-mass stores collar 36 percent of
the sector.
However, they must wonder why they aren't benefiting more from
owners' animal passion: food-drug-mass (except for Wal-Mart) posted
pet food sales of $5.2 billion in 2005 versus $5.5 billion in 2001,
according to ACNielsen Strategic Planner data for the 52 weeks ended
January 28, 2006. This isn't any sudden downturn, it's a steady trend
over the past half-decade; category sales skidded by 2.4 percent in
2002 and 3.7 percent in 2003 before stabilizing with a 1.0 percent
gain in 2004 and absolutely flat performance in 2005.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
As likely as these figures indicate a distribution shift toward
specialty operators like Petco, wholesale clubs and Wal-Mart, they
also foretell a dismal future for food-drug-mass stores that fail to
attract enough buyers of the hot trends-functional, organic or
natural pet foods and treats. For example, organic pet food sales
soared by 63 percent in 2003, roughly triple the rate of human
organic food sales, according to data from the Organic Trade
Association (OTA) as reported in USA Today. At that time, organic pet
food sales were $14 million or less than one-tenth of one percent of
domestic pet food sales of more than $14 billion.
While both organic (free of pesticides, hormones, antibiotics or
preservatives) and natural products are getting display at food
chains such as Whole Foods Market and Wild Oats, according to Organic
Trade Association, they're not specified on the ACNielsen database.
Still, such products do appeal to a price-insensitive segment of the
nation's 81.2 million pet owners who spend an average $241 annually
to feed their dogs or $185 to feed their cats. The likes of Doggie
Dance chicken tenders at $4.95 for 3.5-ounces, liver biscotti at
$5.99 for 8-ounces or barley grass powder at $9.50 for 3-ounces
indicate the high-ticket potential of naturals for food-drug-mass-if
only they'll capture it.
It appears unlikely now, since the places where people buy their
human staples aren't always the same ones attracting their pet food
dollars, according to ACNielsen data. Every pet food segment is lower
than 2001 dollars, except for treats: Dry cat food edged up only 1.6
percent for the second straight year, following 2.1 percent and 4.7
percent annual declines; moist cat food has plummeted for four
straight years, by 23.8 percent, 25.7 percent, 21.2 percent and 29.5
percent; wet cat food is down three out of the past four years,
including a 3.6 percent slide in 2005. Dog food is barely better:
Dry gained 2.3 percent in 2004 and 1.5 percent in 2005, following two
annual declines of 3.0 percent and 3.3 percent; moist is in a
four-year stumble of 5.2 percent, 9.9 percent, 5.4 percent and 7.1
percent; wet is also down every year since 2002, by 4.8 percent, 5.8
percent, 0.8 percent and 0.8 percent. By contrast, dog and cat
treats rose 2.7 percent in 2002, slipped 1.5 percent in 2003, then
climbed 2.3 percent and 2.4 percent in 2004 and 2005.
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Fat Content Claims Reap Mixed Results For Manufacturers
In the diet category, manufacturers have approached the issue of fat
with varying degrees of success. Depending on what kinds of claims
they have made - low fat, fat-free, reduced fat, or absence of
specific kinds of fat - for what kinds of products, these
manufacturers have either been able to craft messages that resonate
with the public or have very little effect. In many ways, this may
reflect on how the category resonates with the public to begin with.
A perfect example is the frozen novelty category, which has seen
significant growth across the board in the diet segment - up more
than three thousand percent in equivalized unit volume (EUV) to
$661.1 million when manufacturers claimed the absence of no animal
fat (including dairy fat); up 23.5 percent to $812 million on
fat-free varieties; up 11 percent to $746.1 million in the "low fat"
segment; and up 5.8 percent in the "reduced fat" segment. The
relatively low increase in "reduced fat" frozen novelties may be a
reflection of the seeming vagueness of that claim.
There are a couple of other categories where the EUV of products
making absence of animal fat claims shows some enormous gains -
potato chips for example, where claims generated a 750 percent
increase in annual sales to $154.4 million; fresh bread, where a 31.1
percent increase during the past calendar year brought the category
to $389.8 million in sales; and tortilla chips, which saw a 17.5
percent increase to $23.7 million.
Other categories in the "absence of animal fat" segment were sort
of a mixed bag, with Mexican tortillas up just 2.3 percent to $4.5
million, and margarine and spreads up 3.2 percent to $124.8 million;
a category like frozen pies, on the other hand, was down a bit by 4.6
percent to $56.9 million.
It is interesting how the quality of the claim seems to make a
difference. Take milk, for example. In the "reduced fat claim"
segment, sales were off .01 percent to $9 billion, while the more
specific "fat free" claim generated a 0.9 percent increase to $4.5
billion, and "low fat" had sales up 1.5 percent to $3.4 billion.
In the long run, however, what really seems to matter to
consumers is the quality of the product, not the quality of the claim.
In the low fat segment, for example, yogurt EUV was up 5.8
percent to $891.7 million, while flavored milk was up 1.4 percent to
$322.6 million; meanwhile, Mexican tortillas were down 11.6 percent
to $736.1 million, lunch meat was down 8.4 percent to $220.7 million,
and cereal was down 1.9 percent to $510.6 million. While consumers
may be measuring levels of fat, they are not, apparently, interested
in dieting aids, which saw their EUV for last year down 85.5 percent
to $279.5 million.
In the fat free segment, sales in hot categories seem a little
stronger. Yogurt was up 19.5 percent to $659.7 million, canned soup
was up 14 percent to $128.6 million, canned desserts were up 6.6
percent to $94.3 million, and non-chocolate candy was up 4.1 percent
to $142.1 million.
One of the strongest categories in the "reduced fat claims"
category was bulk ice cream, up 21.8 percent in EUV last year to
$443.1 million; salad dressings also saw a healthy increase, up 8.2
percent to $47.4 million in sales. Meanwhile, reduced fat mayonnaise
was essentially even with last year at $73.6 million, and reduced fat
frankfurters were down 3.6 percent.
This report is the second in a four-month series of stories
looking at activity in a number of dietary categories, including
calorie count, carbohydrate count, glycemic index, and, this month,
fat content.
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FAMIMA and the Changing Convenience Store
Convenience stores have never been hip. Carrying the image of
roadside locations packed with high calorie snacks, overcooked hot
dogs and stale peanuts, the typical convenience store, by definition,
is a one-stop shop for the bare necessities and a quick sugar fix.
But the concept of convenience is changing, and as customers seek out
more customized, interactive, and pleasing shopping experiences,
standard stores will have to offer more than just super sized
slushies to differentiate themselves from the pack.
One company meeting the convenience store challenge is newcomer
FAMIMA. A subsidiary of FamilyMart Co., Ltd. (one of Asia's leading
convenience stores chains with net sales of about $8.7 billion),
FAMIMA opened its first American store in July of 2005 in Los
Angeles, California. Dedicated to providing on-the-go customers with
a premium shopping experience, FAMIMA is filling a niche for
customers that are seeking both convenience and higher quality
products from the same location.
Aiming to integrate the best parts of the convenience store, the
premium grocery store and the quick service restaurant, FAMIMA
President and CEO Shiro Inoue says FAMIMA combines stores like
Starbucks and Whole Foods with the typical convenience store,
offering the kinds of quality products and services customers desire.
It's that goal of fulfilling customer needs that is helping
FAMIMA become more than just a small fish in a Big Gulp world.
Instead of a showcase of shriveled up donuts and nachos, FAMIMA
supplies fresh baked goods, gourmet salads, deli sandwiches, soups
and sushi - and that's just the beginning.
Priced for what FAMIMA calls the "savvy" consumer, the store also
offers a clean, streamlined look, uncluttered shelves, and imported
European and Asian items - including a wide selection of both local
and international newspapers and magazines. Additionally, shoppers
are encouraged (via incentives like free wireless internet and
digital photo kiosks) to linger a bit at the counter as they sip
their latte and read the latest headlines. And the ultimate premium?
Unrivaled customer service and hospitality.
FAMIMA's clientele is diverse (from Americans to Asians, mothers
to executives), focuses on higher income patrons than most
convenience stores and appeals strongly to women. There are currently
four stores in the Los Angeles area, and there are plans to open
several more by the end of this year. Expansion into other California
cities and some east coast locations could happen as early as 2007.
Inoue says that the success of FAMIMA is just part of the natural
evolution of the industry.
FAMIMA hopes to transform the convenience store into a place that
is fresh and clean, with premium goods and services - a place you
want to go to, and return to.
Click on thumbnails to enlarge
Use this link if you've received the text version
for graph one (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Apr06CS1.gif) and this
link for graph two (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Apr06CS2a.gif)
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CORRECTION
In our last issue, we included a report on the growth in the Pre-cut
Fresh Salad Mix category. The information was partially incorrect.
While dollar sales and unit volume were correctly stated in the
newsletter story titled "Bagged salads have a breakout year," the
year-over-year percentage growth was stated incorrectly.
The category did show a strong increase in the sale of pre-cut
fresh salads in the last year. Sales and unit volume increased more
than twice as much as overall Food and Beverages, growing 5.4 percent
in sales dollars in 2005. Remaining food and beverage categories as a
whole only grew at about 2.4 percent. We regret the error.
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The following slides use indices to compare retail channel
performance vs. year ago on three metrics:
- Dollar sales, number of shoppers, and shopping frequency
An index of 100 means there has been no change.
Among the key findings...
- Average dollar spent in Warehouse Clubs outperform all other
channels, with Convenience/Gas in second place and Dollar Stores in
last place, as of week ending 2/25/06.
- Warehouse Clubs are outperforming all channels with
significant growth in the number of shoppers as Convenience/Gas and
Dollar Stores have the sharpest decreases since the holiday season.
- Convenience/Gas stores show recent increases in the average
number of shopping trips per household.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Facts, Figures and the Future is copyrighted and may not be
reproduced without prior permission. For more information about the
publication, please contact Phil Lempert at 323-860-3070 or via
e-mail at
PLempert@FactsFiguresFuture.com
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