Spring is here!

Ahhh! Take a deep breath ... and a look around. Just around the corner are chirping birds, warm breezes, blooming flowers and of course the Annual FMI Convention and Consumer 360.

For our shoppers, the outdoor grills are heating up and many are already thinking about which diet they will try this year.

The "Consumer Obsession" with food continues ... and it is becoming pervasive across all media. Recipe and shopping tip pod casts, 24 hour satellite radio stations devoted to food and recipes, over 1,790,000,000 food-centric websites (according to Google) and even prime time network television celebrity cook-offs all underscore the fact that many of our customers are more knowledgeable about ingredients and food preparation. Which begs the question of just how knowledgeable and well-trained are the people we have designated to help them.

A couple years ago in this column I suggested that the time was ripe for a "Nutritional Correction" as consumers, brands and retailers all seemed to (finally!) become aware that it was time that we added more whole grains, lowered fat, lowered calories and replaced or eliminated certain ingredients in our everyday foods. And the impact was enormous.

Now I would like to suggest we begin a "Food Comprehension Campaign" designed not just to correct the health and wellness confusion that runs rampant (low fat vs. low carb is a great place to start) in the minds of consumers ... but to also retrain our own.

As an industry we put billions of dollars to work on consumer campaigns that are designed to sell more products, and hopefully as David Ogilvy would have put forth, to inform shoppers about the benefits and differentiation of one product over another. But what about taking some of those dollars to educate not just the in-store staff, but also the office and sales personnel across all phases of the industry?

The food broker rep whose job it is to work with a department manager quite possibly has the best chance of effectively communicating the latest report on the benefits of Omega-3s or the benefits of a low fat lifestyle.

More often than not, our CPG brands have an underutilized resource: their consumer affairs departments and call centers. These folks are well versed in the latest food news and preparations, know how to communicate well and have terrific listening skills. Maybe it's time to get them out of their cubicles and toss their headphones ... and have these people share their insights and knowledge in our boardrooms and marketing meetings. Not in a 250 page report, but in a live 30 minute discussion.

The truth is that spring actually brings us our most severe weather patterns as the warm air begins to invade from lower latitudes while cold air is still pushing from the Polar Regions. It's the time of the year where turbulence and shaking things up a bit is most accepted.

As we walk the aisles and attend the educational sessions at both the FMI and Consumer 360 this spring lets use the tools we acquire to build our own food comprehension and meet the needs of our shoppers. Otherwise, they will find people that can...

For nuts, a pause in their growth
Beauty Market Continues Strong
Private Label Gaining Share of Wallet & Share of Mind
Rising Fuel Prices Start To Affect Consumer Habits
Olive oil sales flowing
The Wine Aisle: Where The Wild Things Are
Pet food sales flat, despite nation's animal passion
Fat Content Claims Reap Mixed Results For Manufacturers
FAMIMA and the Changing Convenience Store
CORRECTION
Channel Watch


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April 12, 2006


The Meat Market

Although tastes and product offerings change constantly, the marketing power of meat remains undiminished. In fact, it may be more critical than ever in winning shopper loyalty and building shopping trip satisfaction.

Retailers looking for points of differentiation in today's marketplace frequently cite fresh foods as the key battleground for consumer loyalty. In this case, shopper feedback makes it clear that perception aligns perfectly with reality.

A new consumer study from FMI and the American Meat Institute details the important role meat plays to the shopper and to all retailers looking for a marketing edge, especially for traditional operators. The vast majority of shoppers use supermarkets for food shopping trips and the advantage for traditional stores competing with supercenters grows when the shopping trip includes meat.

A traditional supermarket holds the loyalty of 86 percent of its regular shoppers for meat purchases. In sharp contrast, supercenters lose more than 40 percent of their regular shoppers on meat purchases. Supermarkets gain the largest percentage of those shoppers, followed by warehouse clubs and butcher shops.

Holding this advantage into the future will require further innovation, but again there are promising signs. Organic meat can be a real point of differentiation, especially among shoppers who say they are looking for better tasting and more nutritional products.

Supermarkets win a large share of the organic meat market, but the potential is even larger. Currently only 17 percent of shoppers say they purchased organic meat in the past three months, while 20 percent say they really don't understand how organic meat is different. Another 14 percent are uncertain if they have actually purchased an organic product. The need and potential for educating these shoppers is clear.

However, the results may not come quickly. Less than half of shoppers are aware of the widespread efforts to cross-merchandise other products with meat, and the use of meal suggestions is even lower, despite shoppers' continued complaints about their lack of time or menu ideas.

Some other key findings from this special study are:

  • Enjoyment of shopping ties closely to how the primary shopper feels about cooking. Shoppers who like to cook make more food shopping trips each week and spend more money overall.
  • Slightly more than half of all meat shoppers stock up when they are in the store, buying large purchases and freezing most of them for use over time. However, these shoppers are also more likely to prepare home cooked meals.
  • Pricing remains a key driver of meat purchases, as shoppers check prices across the store and throughout the meat department.
  • Chicken is the most frequently prepared dish, with 30 percent cooking it at least three times a week and 90 percent doing so at least once weekly. Beef follows closely behind.
  • Ready to eat products continue to grow in use, especially among younger shoppers (ages 18-24).

    The meat study was released at the Annual Meat Conference held each March by FMI, AMI and additional commodity groups. To order a copy of this interesting new study, visit FMI's website: www.fmi.org.

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    Helping the Industry Determine "What's Next?"

    The pace of life is faster than ever. Time-strapped consumers seek convenience, but demand value. Marketers have more data than ever - retail tracking, consumer purchases, loyalty cards, advertising information, to name just a few. Our world is also changing. Leading economic countries are aging, and younger, more diverse populations are growing in markets around the world.

    We in the industry have become pretty good at understanding what is happening today. We can look at past consumer behavior and product movement, we can segment consumers and shopping trips, we can look at underlying changes to demographics and product mix. But more and more, our clients are asking us a key question: "What's Next?"

    How will retailing evolve? How will technology help us - and hinder us in the future? What will consumers want and need from me? How can I anticipate - and create - the next big thing?

    Next month, professionals will have the opportunity to discover what will be next at the Consumer 360 conference. Many of you already know that Consumer 360 is the #1 marketing information event for the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry. In 2005, more than 1,000 industry professionals attended, and we anticipate an even greater show this year. Our past attendees have told us what they liked and what they'd like to see more of, and we have delivered.

    Speakers from Coca-Cola, Royal Ahold, SUPERVALU and Unilever, are a few examples of industry leaders who will be headlining our main stage. Noted futurist Andrew Zolli will definitely give us a taste of What's Next in our industry. We also have the pleasure of welcoming Facts, Figures & the Future's own Phil Lempert, who will lead a panel discussion with area consumers, live, during the show.

    And the keynote presentations are just the beginning. Past attendees know that the value in attending Consumer 360 is in the workshops, which provide real-world examples and case studies of business issues and how to solve them. The workshops will cover consumer trends, retail trends, marketing efficiencies, effective targeting and in-store execution.

    This year, we have expanded our learning tracks by adding "Super Sessions," with clients and third-party participation for more in-depth study, interaction and learning.

    We are also bringing back, by popular demand, the Express Coaching booth, sponsored by the Network of Executive Women (NEW). These complimentary 30-minute sessions for both men and women feature Express Coaching Sessions led by renowned personal coaches. Participants will gain feedback and advice on how to improve their business skills to contribute more to their organization and establish themselves as a leader.

    Consumer 360 will take place May 16-18 at the J.W. Marriott in Palm Desert, California. If you have not done so, please visit www.Consumer360.com to see great conference we have put together. If you are interested, please register soon - Our earlybird discounts end April 17.

    We all look forward to seeing you there and discovering What's Next for our industry!


    For nuts, a pause in their growth
    If consumers could design the perfect nut, it would be organic (for purity), low-sodium (for better health) and private label (value prices). Data pinpoints these as the hottest sectors of the $2.11 billion nut category in food, drug and mass for the 52 weeks ended Feb. 25, 2006 - up from $1.57 billion four years ago, state ACNielsen Strategic Planner figures.

    What's giving nuts their sales energy? A magnet to the nutrition-inclined - they're high in protein, fiber, calcium and iron, with many fats, the good kind - packers are adding new flavor varieties such as black pepper cashews and wasabi peanuts, although so far these are more evident in high-end natural food and specialty stores than mainstream supermarket shelves. One result: people may be thinking of nuts as a "healthier" salty snack, and with added varieties and higher-profile merchandising throughout the store, the category appears ready to gain snack share and a more prominent role in meal recipes.

    While equivalized units have grown in three out of the past four years from 401.6 million pounds to 476.1 million pounds, there are signs of consumer price resistance that could actually prove to be a margin boon to retailers who capitalize by displaying store brands near high-traffic deli, cheese and holiday food sections. Private label has surpassed the percentage growth rate of brands in each of the past four years in the category overall: successive gains of 6.2 percent, 13.4 percent, 21.2 percent and 6.8 percent for store brands, vs. 2.4 percent, 11.6 percent, 7.9 percent and 3.4 percent for name brands.


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    This encroachment on brand share was led most prominently the past two years by the massive bagged segment, in which private label grew by 32.7 percent and 21.5 percent respectively vs. 8.4 percent and 2.3 percent in brands.

    Since people pay $4.63 per pound for branded nuts on average, the $4.00 they pay for private label seems a significantly better value - and much closer to the price range of other salty snacks.

    Not all consumers are price conscious, however. Sales of organic nuts have been leaping ahead each year in double- and triple-digits, show ACNielsen LabelTrends data in food-drug-mass (excluding Wal-Mart). In successive 52-week periods, dollar sales of UPC-coded packages of organic nuts grew by 30.4 percent, 39.6 percent, 45.5 percent and 131.6 percent, and equivalized unit volume gained comparably by 28.3 percent, 31.7 percent, 26.0 percent and 92.4 percent. The organic segment's $9 million of annual sales are a minuscule part of the category for now, but its growth shows consumers are making nuts part of their broader shift toward organic foods in their quest for better health and environment. That commitment comes at a price: $6.44 per pound.

    More integral to the category's management is the consistent importance to consumers of no-salt and low-salt varieties. According to LabelTrends data, UPC-coded packages of these nuts currently account for close to one-quarter of all nuts sold in food-drug-mass - 21.7 percent - compared with a 21.5 percent share four years earlier. Their dollar sales have risen steadily, by 1.7 percent, 7.6 percent, 15.3 percent and 6.9 percent in successive years.

    Beauty Market Continues Strong
    The African-American beauty market has convincingly come of age - with high penetration of many appearance products bought at full price the vast majority of time - show the ACNielsen Homescan Consumer Facts Report for the 52 weeks ended July 2, 2005.

    The way the African-American woman purchases cosmetics parallels that of non-African-Americans, the data reveal. For example, the cosmetics department penetrates 57.3 percent of African-American households vs. 61.9 percent of other women. She spends an average of $14.90 per year on mass market beauty items, the sum of three annual trips with an average department spend of $4.92; this is a bit lower than the $24.91 other women spend, the total of 3.9 trips with an average department spend of $6.39.


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    Her average price of a beauty item is $2.79 with a purchase cycle of 59 days. By comparison, other women have an average beauty ticket of $3.77 with a 52-day purchase cycle.

    Six out of ten African-American women are repeat buyers of cosmetics vs. seven in ten of other women in the United States. She uses a manufacturer coupon on just one beauty purchase in 50 vs. 1 in 20 among other women.

    These consumer behaviors warrant ethnic beauty a strong foothold in many of the nation's mass, drug and food stores, especially where assortments suit the traffic patterns and beauty demands of African-American women and are likely to ensure their satisfaction. Since cosmetics is one department that focuses on offering women a brief respite from the day's pressures, having it right is a plus and having it wrong can be a deal-breaker in her relationship with the store.

    She is a powerful buyer of beauty products. In no less than 16 beauty categories, African-American household penetration is greater than that of other women. Some are expected: ethnic hair preparations (61.7% vs. 1.9%) and skin bleaching/toning (5.9% vs. 1.1%). Many aren't: hand and body lotions (65.4% vs. 51.2%), skin creams (16.6% vs. 10.9%), fragrances (27.2% vs. 23.2%), hair care and fashion accessories (51.0% vs. 46.6%), nail polish (28.2% vs. 27.2%), talcum and dusting powder (8.8% vs. 5.4%), to name a few.

    In 14 segments, her average annual household spend is in double digits. They include: hair growth product ($28.71), men's hair color ($27.68), women's fragrances ($23.23), skin care preparations ($22.21), men's hair spray ($20.28), women's gift sets and skin care packages ($16.89), face cleansers/creams/lotions ($15.13), women's hair color ($15.07), ethnic hair preparations ($14.72), hand and body lotions ($12.67), false eyelashes and accessories ($12.10), other non-men's hair preparations ($11.32), liquid foundation ($10.81), and acne remedies ($10.35). Most of these spend levels either exceed or approach those of non-African-Americans.

    All retailers can apply these insights, though it seems likely that merchandising activities will work best when aligned to the stores that cater to their target markets. However, all supermarkets can use strong ethnic beauty assortments to leverage their one-stop appeal to African-American women.

    Private Label Gaining Share of Wallet & Share of Mind
    For the past 8 years, sales of private label consumer-packaged-goods have grown at a rate of about twice that of branded products. As reported in our annual ACNielsen U.S. Private Label Consumer report, this growth has been driven by increases in both the frequency in which U.S. households purchase private label and in the quantity that they purchase per shopping trip. An increasing number of households are becoming multi-category private label buyers and private label products are seeing growth outside of historically "over-developed" private label buying households. As retailers look to improve their profitability and retail consolidation continues in the U.S., we should expect to see continued growth of private label products at the expense of branded products. However, brands should not run and hide as they still account for the lion's share of sales across most U.S. retailers (notable exceptions from the likes of Aldi, Trader Joe's and Save-A-Lot).

    ACNielsen has been working on a "ground-breaking" private label study with Daymon Worldwide, DemandTec and McKinsey. Final study results will be presented in Chicago at the Daymon Worldwide Forum scheduled for May 5th and 6th and at the FMI show on May 7th and 9th. The purpose of the ACNielsen portion of the study was to provide consumer research of behaviors and attitudes that demonstrate how retailers can build profitable customer loyalty and competitive differentiation though private label brands. We thought our F3 readers might like to see a sneak preview of our study results, so here are a few facts, figures and findings to peak your interest:

    1. Retailers with greater focus on private label (i.e., those with higher overall private label shares) are driving solid buying behaviors and more positive consumer attitudes towards private label - particularly among those households who drive the strongest sales of private label products.

    2. We fielded a 20 question survey to our ACNielsen Homescan Consumer Panel to understand household perceptions or preferences around private label versus branded products. Survey results were tabulated to understand differences in consumer attitudes within private label buyers who purchase in retailers with strong private label programs and within households showing strong private label commitment. To see what potential exists across households with low versus high "ability to spend", we also examined results within low versus top-spend "all-category" households. So what did we find?

    a. When we asked households if "Store brands are a good alternative to name brands", we found that most households see private label as a good alternative. However, lower scores came from households who were top "all-category" spenders.

    b. A closer examination showed higher scores among medium and high private label share retailers within the top-spend private label buyers. While this was not true for the other private label spending groups, it does illustrate that the better performing retailers (as defined by those driving higher private label shares) are driving stronger consumer attitudes regarding private label products. This finding was evident across a number of other dimensions related to private label perceptions and behaviors.

    c. The lower ratings among top "all-category" spenders may suggest opportunities for retailers to focus efforts around more premium private label offerings. These lower ratings may also point out the strength that branded products have among a set of "most valuable" consumers who shop and buy in U.S. retailers. Whichever the case, these consumers will likely see plenty of attention thrown their way as retailers and brands look to capture their minds and wallets.

    For further information or to arrange a comprehensive presentation on consumer shopping patterns, please contact Todd Hale at thale@acnielsen.com or 859-905-4615.

    Rising Fuel Prices Start To Affect Consumer Habits
    While fuel prices seem to have stabilized in recent months, in part because of a warmer than usual winter in the Northeast United States, the fact remains that the rising cost of gasoline at the pump remains a concern both for consumers and for retailers who depend on shoppers getting into their cars and venturing out.

    While the evidence to this point suggests that many Americans have factored the higher price of gasoline into their budgets and lives, research by ACNielsen suggests that growing concerns about price hikes - often keyed to the unstable political situation in the Middle East - are prompting consumers to consider using their vehicles less and cut down on non-essential living expenses.

    More than 80 percent of consumers from all over the world surveyed by ACNielsen on the Internet said that gasoline prices were affecting their spending habits. And in the US, 88 percent of those surveyed said that fuel prices were affecting them, and 70 percent of Americans surveyed said they were responding to gas prices by combining trips and errands.

    Results from a SupermarketGuru.com quick poll reflect the same attitude. Eighty-eight percent of respondents said that rising fuel prices have had an effect on their financial situation, specifically "driving less" (75%).


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    "The fact that so many US consumers are looking to combine errands and trips in order to economize should inspire retailers to push their convenience and merchandise variety messages," said Tom Markert, ACNielsen's chief marketing and client service officer. "Concepts like having a bank branch within a supermarket should be actively promoted and further developed."

    Of course, there is another option that retailers can take. Some operators - especially specialty and fresh food-driven retailers such as Wegmans, Ukrops, Dorothy Lane Market, and Stew Leonard's - are working overtime to create and maintain differentiated store concepts that are compelling enough for people to be willing to make the extra trip. But it probably is fair to conclude that if gas prices continue to rise, this will only ramp up the competitive pressures on even the best and most unique operators.

    One of the intriguing findings from the ACNielsen study is the fact that there seems to be a growing global awareness that high fuel prices have an impact on lifestyle even if you don't own a car or drive one regularly. For example, among the ten countries where consumers were most concerned about high fuel prices, a number of them claimed not very high car ownership, for example, in the Philippines, Hungary and Chile. In the US, Canada, Belgium, France, Malaysia and South Africa, high levels of concern over price increases corresponded with vehicle ownership (up to 90 percent).

    There's also one alarming statistic from the US survey. While Americans may be willing to make certain adjustments in their driving patterns because of high fuel prices, only eight percent of those surveyed said they would use public transportation more often to compensate.

    Consciousness raising apparently only goes so far.

    Olive oil sales flowing
    For centuries, olive trees stood as symbols of peace, and their oils as icons of purity, to such a point that the Greek poet Homer called olive oil "liquid gold" and Hippocrates recommended it as a powerful therapeutic.

    Currently, the oil of this Mediterranean fruit is on a 20-year romp in America in which it has:

    • Claimed the largest share of pourable oil retail sales, a 34% share in 2002, on its way to approaching a 50% share by 2007, according to the North American Olive Oil Association (NAOOA).
    • Penetrated more than one-third of the nation's homes, close to 40 million, in 2002, a rise of eight percentage points in five years, while other popular cooking oils declined, the trade group added.

    Health concerns are providing the sales impetus. Today's consumers are in no mood to dispute the world's father of medicine, as they face their obesity challenge and aim to emulate the Mediterranean diets that result in less heart disease through lower cholesterol and saturated fats. The category got a boost in 2004 when the Food and Drug Administration-recognizing the cholesterol-free, monounsaturated fat nature of olive oil-approved the heart-health claim sought by NAOOA, and it hasn't looked back.

    Olive oil dollar sales in food-drug-mass (excluding Wal-Mart) had grown by 3.1 percent in the 52 weeks ended March 2, 2003 and by 5.9 percent in the following year. However, once the FDA word got out, the growth pace roughly doubled to 12.7 percent the year after and 12.2 percent in the 52 weeks ended February 25, 2006, according to ACNielsen Strategic Planner. With that growth spurt, olive oil sales eclipsed the half-billion-dollar mark at $553.3 million-a full 38 percent higher than the $401.1 million level of just four years earlier.


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    While brands account for 83.6 percent of category sales, both brands and private labels are sharing in the FDA-induced uplift. In the past two years alone, brand sales have grown by 11.7 percent and 9.4 percent, and store-brand sales escalated by 19.0 percent and 28.6 percent.

    By contrast, equivalized unit volume for olive oil has slid by 0.4 percent and 1.8 percent the past two years, suggesting that people are willing to pay higher prices for this product.

    Consumers are apparently of two minds as they pursue olive's health benefits. They like the versatility of olive oil for sautéing fish, meat, vegetables and salads, and they enjoy the variety of green and black olives from different lands-Greece, Italy, Israel, France, Mexico and more. ACNielsen data show black olive sales at $216.2 million in food-drug-mass, up 0.4 percent in the latest 52 weeks, and green olive sales at $190.8 million, up 3.1 percent. Their measured sales together are less than that of olive oil. However, data reflect only prepackaged, UPC-coded products, and don't include volume from the increasingly frequent bulk, self-service displays that effectively bring an international feel to store aisles.

    Freestanding olive carts near cheeses, wines and holiday foods, along with secondary wings and endcaps near meats and fresh seafood counters are increasingly common, perhaps following the demand of ethnic populations around specific stores.

    The Wine Aisle: Where The Wild Things Are
    There's an interesting phenomenon taking place in the nation's wine departments. Increasingly, it is becoming a place where wild animals roam.

    No, we're not talking about obsessive wine buyers looking for a bargain on a new pinot noir and willing to knock over just about anyone to get it. We are, in fact, talking about the plethora of animals that can be found on wine labels as vintners try new ways to broaden their appeal to consumers.

    No longer does it seem to be enough to have a great wine. Now, it seems almost as important to have a cute wine label that will capture a shopper's roving eye as they walk down the aisle.

    Just the other day, we ventured into our local wine emporium ... and there were shelves where it looked more like a zoo. There was Wild Horse. Wallaby Creek. Duck Walk. Fish Eye. Little Penguin. Monkey Bay. Goats Do Roam. Black Swan. 3 Blind Moose. Dancing Bull. There also was the rooster on Hahn Estate wines, as well as a wine called 47 Pound Rooster from Rex Goliath. There was the sheep on the Dyed In The Wool wine bottle, the giraffe on the Long Neck Wines bottle, and the kangaroo on the Oz wine bottle. There was even a so-called "mythical create" called a "roogle" - a cross between an eagle and a kangaroo - on the Roogle Rock wines, and something called "Cockfighter's Ghost" that sort of speaks for itself.

    Within the industry, these are called "critter labels," and they essentially are the progeny of Yellow Tail wine from Australia, which features a kangaroo and has proven to be an enormous success - it is the top selling imported wine brand in the US. (A number of these "critter labels" come from Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, where many of the wines are excellent but the approach to names and labels seems a little more whimsical than here in the US.)

    ACNielsen reports that of the 438 new table wine brands with sustained consumer sales introduced in the past three years, 77 - or 18 percent - featured a "critter" on the label. Combined with existing critter labels, sales of critter-branded wine have reached more than $600 million.

    "Critter-labeled wines are on the rise, quickly gaining share in the table wine category," said Danny Brager, vice president of ACNielsen's Beverage Alcohol team. "The sales generated by new brands featuring a critter outperform other new table wines by more than two to one."

    There are two interesting points to be made about the success of the "critter labels." One is that most of these products tend be priced a little higher than equivalent products with less attractive labels, though they also are often sold at a discount because of various promotions.

    The other is that "critter wines" seem to grow the category, creating new wine buyers or getting existing wine buyers to expand their personal tastes and even spend more money on the purchase. "While placing a critter on a label doesn't guarantee success, it is important that wine makers realize that there is a segment of consumers who don't want to have to take wine too seriously," said Brager. "Not only are they willing to have fun with wine, they may just feel 'good' about an animal label presentation."

    Pet food sales flat, despite nation's animal passion
    Who loves you unconditionally, greets you at the door at the end of your workday, and never gives away a secret you confided?

    No wonder Americans can't do enough for their pets, and increasingly treat them like family. Through food, owners demonstrate their affection. That's fueling a boon in better-quality pet food launches and sales, says Mintel research. With many new products addressing joint or urinary tract health, hairball or tartar control, and lifestage, category segmentation may soon pose space challenges for food-drug-mass retailers trying to satisfy motivated pet owners and hold onto pet food share.

    With 2004 pet food sales at $14.2 billion in 2004 and estimated at $14.5 billion in 2005, according to the American Pet Products Manufacturers Association, food-drug-mass stores collar 36 percent of the sector.

    However, they must wonder why they aren't benefiting more from owners' animal passion: food-drug-mass (except for Wal-Mart) posted pet food sales of $5.2 billion in 2005 versus $5.5 billion in 2001, according to ACNielsen Strategic Planner data for the 52 weeks ended January 28, 2006. This isn't any sudden downturn, it's a steady trend over the past half-decade; category sales skidded by 2.4 percent in 2002 and 3.7 percent in 2003 before stabilizing with a 1.0 percent gain in 2004 and absolutely flat performance in 2005.


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    As likely as these figures indicate a distribution shift toward specialty operators like Petco, wholesale clubs and Wal-Mart, they also foretell a dismal future for food-drug-mass stores that fail to attract enough buyers of the hot trends-functional, organic or natural pet foods and treats. For example, organic pet food sales soared by 63 percent in 2003, roughly triple the rate of human organic food sales, according to data from the Organic Trade Association (OTA) as reported in USA Today. At that time, organic pet food sales were $14 million or less than one-tenth of one percent of domestic pet food sales of more than $14 billion.

    While both organic (free of pesticides, hormones, antibiotics or preservatives) and natural products are getting display at food chains such as Whole Foods Market and Wild Oats, according to Organic Trade Association, they're not specified on the ACNielsen database. Still, such products do appeal to a price-insensitive segment of the nation's 81.2 million pet owners who spend an average $241 annually to feed their dogs or $185 to feed their cats. The likes of Doggie Dance chicken tenders at $4.95 for 3.5-ounces, liver biscotti at $5.99 for 8-ounces or barley grass powder at $9.50 for 3-ounces indicate the high-ticket potential of naturals for food-drug-mass-if only they'll capture it.

    It appears unlikely now, since the places where people buy their human staples aren't always the same ones attracting their pet food dollars, according to ACNielsen data. Every pet food segment is lower than 2001 dollars, except for treats: Dry cat food edged up only 1.6 percent for the second straight year, following 2.1 percent and 4.7 percent annual declines; moist cat food has plummeted for four straight years, by 23.8 percent, 25.7 percent, 21.2 percent and 29.5 percent; wet cat food is down three out of the past four years, including a 3.6 percent slide in 2005. Dog food is barely better: Dry gained 2.3 percent in 2004 and 1.5 percent in 2005, following two annual declines of 3.0 percent and 3.3 percent; moist is in a four-year stumble of 5.2 percent, 9.9 percent, 5.4 percent and 7.1 percent; wet is also down every year since 2002, by 4.8 percent, 5.8 percent, 0.8 percent and 0.8 percent. By contrast, dog and cat treats rose 2.7 percent in 2002, slipped 1.5 percent in 2003, then climbed 2.3 percent and 2.4 percent in 2004 and 2005.

    Fat Content Claims Reap Mixed Results For Manufacturers
    In the diet category, manufacturers have approached the issue of fat with varying degrees of success. Depending on what kinds of claims they have made - low fat, fat-free, reduced fat, or absence of specific kinds of fat - for what kinds of products, these manufacturers have either been able to craft messages that resonate with the public or have very little effect. In many ways, this may reflect on how the category resonates with the public to begin with.

    A perfect example is the frozen novelty category, which has seen significant growth across the board in the diet segment - up more than three thousand percent in equivalized unit volume (EUV) to $661.1 million when manufacturers claimed the absence of no animal fat (including dairy fat); up 23.5 percent to $812 million on fat-free varieties; up 11 percent to $746.1 million in the "low fat" segment; and up 5.8 percent in the "reduced fat" segment. The relatively low increase in "reduced fat" frozen novelties may be a reflection of the seeming vagueness of that claim.

    There are a couple of other categories where the EUV of products making absence of animal fat claims shows some enormous gains - potato chips for example, where claims generated a 750 percent increase in annual sales to $154.4 million; fresh bread, where a 31.1 percent increase during the past calendar year brought the category to $389.8 million in sales; and tortilla chips, which saw a 17.5 percent increase to $23.7 million.

    Other categories in the "absence of animal fat" segment were sort of a mixed bag, with Mexican tortillas up just 2.3 percent to $4.5 million, and margarine and spreads up 3.2 percent to $124.8 million; a category like frozen pies, on the other hand, was down a bit by 4.6 percent to $56.9 million.

    It is interesting how the quality of the claim seems to make a difference. Take milk, for example. In the "reduced fat claim" segment, sales were off .01 percent to $9 billion, while the more specific "fat free" claim generated a 0.9 percent increase to $4.5 billion, and "low fat" had sales up 1.5 percent to $3.4 billion.

    In the long run, however, what really seems to matter to consumers is the quality of the product, not the quality of the claim.

    In the low fat segment, for example, yogurt EUV was up 5.8 percent to $891.7 million, while flavored milk was up 1.4 percent to $322.6 million; meanwhile, Mexican tortillas were down 11.6 percent to $736.1 million, lunch meat was down 8.4 percent to $220.7 million, and cereal was down 1.9 percent to $510.6 million. While consumers may be measuring levels of fat, they are not, apparently, interested in dieting aids, which saw their EUV for last year down 85.5 percent to $279.5 million.

    In the fat free segment, sales in hot categories seem a little stronger. Yogurt was up 19.5 percent to $659.7 million, canned soup was up 14 percent to $128.6 million, canned desserts were up 6.6 percent to $94.3 million, and non-chocolate candy was up 4.1 percent to $142.1 million.

    One of the strongest categories in the "reduced fat claims" category was bulk ice cream, up 21.8 percent in EUV last year to $443.1 million; salad dressings also saw a healthy increase, up 8.2 percent to $47.4 million in sales. Meanwhile, reduced fat mayonnaise was essentially even with last year at $73.6 million, and reduced fat frankfurters were down 3.6 percent.

    This report is the second in a four-month series of stories looking at activity in a number of dietary categories, including calorie count, carbohydrate count, glycemic index, and, this month, fat content.

    FAMIMA and the Changing Convenience Store
    Convenience stores have never been hip. Carrying the image of roadside locations packed with high calorie snacks, overcooked hot dogs and stale peanuts, the typical convenience store, by definition, is a one-stop shop for the bare necessities and a quick sugar fix. But the concept of convenience is changing, and as customers seek out more customized, interactive, and pleasing shopping experiences, standard stores will have to offer more than just super sized slushies to differentiate themselves from the pack.

    One company meeting the convenience store challenge is newcomer FAMIMA. A subsidiary of FamilyMart Co., Ltd. (one of Asia's leading convenience stores chains with net sales of about $8.7 billion), FAMIMA opened its first American store in July of 2005 in Los Angeles, California. Dedicated to providing on-the-go customers with a premium shopping experience, FAMIMA is filling a niche for customers that are seeking both convenience and higher quality products from the same location.

    Aiming to integrate the best parts of the convenience store, the premium grocery store and the quick service restaurant, FAMIMA President and CEO Shiro Inoue says FAMIMA combines stores like Starbucks and Whole Foods with the typical convenience store, offering the kinds of quality products and services customers desire.

    It's that goal of fulfilling customer needs that is helping FAMIMA become more than just a small fish in a Big Gulp world. Instead of a showcase of shriveled up donuts and nachos, FAMIMA supplies fresh baked goods, gourmet salads, deli sandwiches, soups and sushi - and that's just the beginning.

    Priced for what FAMIMA calls the "savvy" consumer, the store also offers a clean, streamlined look, uncluttered shelves, and imported European and Asian items - including a wide selection of both local and international newspapers and magazines. Additionally, shoppers are encouraged (via incentives like free wireless internet and digital photo kiosks) to linger a bit at the counter as they sip their latte and read the latest headlines. And the ultimate premium? Unrivaled customer service and hospitality.

    FAMIMA's clientele is diverse (from Americans to Asians, mothers to executives), focuses on higher income patrons than most convenience stores and appeals strongly to women. There are currently four stores in the Los Angeles area, and there are plans to open several more by the end of this year. Expansion into other California cities and some east coast locations could happen as early as 2007. Inoue says that the success of FAMIMA is just part of the natural evolution of the industry.

    FAMIMA hopes to transform the convenience store into a place that is fresh and clean, with premium goods and services - a place you want to go to, and return to.












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    CORRECTION
    In our last issue, we included a report on the growth in the Pre-cut Fresh Salad Mix category. The information was partially incorrect. While dollar sales and unit volume were correctly stated in the newsletter story titled "Bagged salads have a breakout year," the year-over-year percentage growth was stated incorrectly.

    The category did show a strong increase in the sale of pre-cut fresh salads in the last year. Sales and unit volume increased more than twice as much as overall Food and Beverages, growing 5.4 percent in sales dollars in 2005. Remaining food and beverage categories as a whole only grew at about 2.4 percent. We regret the error.


  • The following slides use indices to compare retail channel performance vs. year ago on three metrics:
    - Dollar sales, number of shoppers, and shopping frequency
  • An index of 100 means there has been no change.
  • Among the key findings...
    - Average dollar spent in Warehouse Clubs outperform all other channels, with Convenience/Gas in second place and Dollar Stores in last place, as of week ending 2/25/06.
    - Warehouse Clubs are outperforming all channels with significant growth in the number of shoppers as Convenience/Gas and Dollar Stores have the sharpest decreases since the holiday season.
    - Convenience/Gas stores show recent increases in the average number of shopping trips per household.


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