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The ring of 2005 holds much promise...and a different tune for
grocers.
The New Year is just a couple short weeks away, and with this
annual event comes predictions, individual appraisals of the previous
twelve months and the requisite...New Year's resolutions!
My recommendation in planning for 2005 is to "cut through it all"
and say that 2005 looks like it'll be a year of strength in the
grocery business.
Supermarkets are refocused and putting more effort behind center
store, understanding consumer desires and in-store technologies. The
scare of RFID has passed and is quickly becoming a reality both in
the backroom and within the next 12 months in the front of store.
Even the government seems to be on board as we await their
announcement of the new Recommended Daily Allowances, which, if they
(along with the support of the CPG companies and supermarkets)
promote properly, could actually make a dent in the "war" on fat and
help reduce obesity, diabetes and heart disease.
The "nutritional correction" that we predicted over a year ago,
has become reality - and CPG companies are to be commended. Consumers
are embracing the reduction in sugars, fats, carbs and sodium along
with the elimination of trans fats, and quite possibly, based on the
sales increases for these products, have reinforced the fact that
Americans really will buy these products.
My promise to you is that in 2005
Facts, Figures & the Future will continue to be committed to
bring you the latest and most insightful findings about consumer
trends. Our F3 community is nearly 11,000 of the smartest and most
consumer-focused professionals - our thanks go out to Michael Sansolo
at the Food Marketing Institute and the team at ACNielsen who through
their insights and support make F3 a unique and valuable resource.
Here's to a happy and healthy holiday season ...and to a fabulous
2005!
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ACNielsen's latest annual Consumer & Market Trends Report is now
available. For information and to order
click here.

Warehouse Clubs have established themselves as a major retail channel
that is here to stay. Find out everything you need to know about the
consumers who shop this channel in ACNielsen's latest study.
Click Here
for more details.

The FMI/Rodale Shopping for Health survey of consumers is available.
Click here for more details.

ACNielsen's latest Private Label Trends Report is now available. For
information,
click here.
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December 13, 2004
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What's in store...?
Is the face of supermarket retailing changing?
Certainly, when it comes to size, change seems to be in the air
and in stores across the country. FMI's annual study of store
development trends (Facts About Store Development) found a
number of interesting trends that might provide a clear picture of
how retailers are trying to match stores to different types of
shoppers and shopping trips.
At the top of the list is the sharply increasing number of small
targeted stores that opened in the past year. Although these
specialty operators make up only two percent of the current store
population, nearly 15 percent of the new stores opened in the past
year fell into this category. These small stores are focused on
three main merchandising areas: gourmet, natural foods and Hispanic
shoppers.
The impact of all these new smaller stores was profound on the
statistical averages FMI tracks, specifically for store size, which
fell to 34,000 square feet. This was the first time in a decade that
average store size dipped below 40,000 square feet, but it's not a
sign that large stores are going away. Rather, it demonstrates the
target marketing that is happening across the country with retailers
attempting to find the right store size for different shoppers and
different shopping occasions.
An interesting aspect of small stores is the speed with which
they can arrive on the scene and begin to alter a market area. On
average, it takes 32 weeks to build and open an average new store;
but the smaller stores join the marketplace in a remarkable 12 weeks.
What's being put inside all stores today - and what's on the
drawing board for the future - paints a clear picture of what works
best for today's shoppers. Delis and fresh seafood departments were
part of every new store opened in the past year; while ethnic foods
departments, floral, take-out food, pharmacies and low-carb sections
are planned for 90 percent.
The emphasis on value shopping and speed-of-checkout is also
clear. Dollar-item aisles were included in 20 percent of new stores
(as compared to just six percent one year earlier). Likewise, the
number of new stores featuring self-scanning checkouts jumped to
nearly one-third in the new report, up from 17.5 percent a year
earlier.
Retailers expect to remodel 10 percent of their stores in 2005,
and no doubt, we'll continue to see stores evolve as they probe for
winning strategies.
Needless to say, the era of change isn't over.
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A New Perspective on Retail Performance
The ability to monitor business performance has been an essential
part of the CPG marketer's toolbox since Arthur C. Nielsen created
the concept of market share more than 80 years ago. While the
original process may seem crude by today's standards - physically
counting products on store shelves - it provided important new
insights.
Since then, measures of share - market, wallet, stomach and more
- have become an integral part of the business lexicon, and the
measurement process has become much more sophisticated. However,
despite these advances, retailers have lacked a reliable means to
monitor total-store market share.
Intense competition between supermarkets, drug stores,
discounters, dollar stores and others have caused monumental shifts
in the retail landscape, making performance measurement even more
challenging. In the dollar store channel, the fastest-growing
channel in the U.S., stores are opening at a rate of six per day!
And in the mass merchandiser channel, over half of the eight new
stores that open every week are supercenters, showing a shift from
the traditional discount format to one that includes a grocery
component.
As channels continue to blur, it is more important than ever to
have reliable, trendable and timely competitive performance
benchmarks. Moreover, information must be increasingly flexible to
account for each retailer's unique trade area definition, yet also
able to conform to industry standard geographic definitions (DMA,
MSA, and Scantrack Major Markets)
To address those needs, ACNielsen has now launched Retail
ACView. Developed in conjunction with TDLinx, a division of
ACNielsen, the web-delivered service provides key quarterly metrics
such as: ACV market share trends, channel share trends, store count
changes, market entrants and seasonal share variability. With this
tool, retailers are able to analyze market share and store count
trends in their own custom geographies and across channel definitions.
As the competitive retail landscape continues to evolve, so does
the marketer's toolbox. While success ultimately depends on how well
retailers connect with their shoppers, Retail ACView is a
critical new component in helping them understand their competition
and make informed business decisions.
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Knowing Where Your Most Valuable Shoppers Shop Can Uncover Opportunities
Last month we discussed opportunities for Grocery retailers to reduce
the decline of Grocery channel shopping trips by focusing on Dry
Grocery Department assortment. While expanded variety has been a
strength for mainstream Hi/Lo Grocery retailers, we questioned
whether all of the assortment is worth the added expense. Reduced
assortment could lead to reduced costs and enable Grocery retailers
to be more competitively priced versus value-based retailers.
Additionally, reduced assortment could allow Grocery retailers to
free up space for assortment that their shoppers want and that other
retailers can't easily replicate or deliver as well. This month we
want to illustrate how Grocery retailers can uncover sales
opportunities by better understanding the other retailers and
channels where their most valuable shoppers shop.
In a joint FMI/ACNielsen study, we identified the heaviest
spenders within Mass Supercenters and within a wide selection of
Hi/Lo, EDLP and Specialty Grocery retailers. The heaviest spenders
represented the highest one-third of shoppers based on annual
spending rates in each of these formats. When we examine other
channel shopping trips made by heavy segment shoppers, we see
different competitive frames across the formats. Heavy shoppers in
the three Grocery retail segments make more trips than do heavy
Supercenter shoppers, while heavy Supercenter shoppers offset Grocery
trips with a lot of trips to the Mass channel and to Supercenters.
There is high interaction with the Drug channel for all three Grocery
formats, which suggests continued opportunity for expanded
Prescription (Rx) Drug offerings. The growing importance of aging
consumers and their increasing demand for Rx Drugs can enable
additional trip capture and shopping basket expansion for Grocery
retailers. More and more retailers are either adding Rx departments
to their service mix, extending their Rx department hours, offering
on-site inoculations, and/or adding drive-up/walk-up windows to make
Rx trips more convenient.
The Club channel is important for heavy Specialty Grocery
shoppers. How about maximizing the capture of center-store or
perimeter department purchases that consumers don't want to buy in
large quantities within the Club channel, or consider periodic "club
pack" offerings? Heavy EDLP shoppers make relatively more trips to
Mass, Supercenter and Dollar Store retailers - a potential
opportunity for expanded seasonal item focus.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
When we examine shopping trips to alternative channels, we see
that Heavy Grocery shoppers make more trips to alternative retail
channels. Grocery retailers can turn this into an opportunity by
adding store-within-a-store concepts around home/auto repair; home
entertainment via book, movie and music assortment; home/business
office supplies; specialty wines, etc. Another option would be to
engage in joint promotions/programs with Specialty Retailers to keep
those trips from going to Mass retailers. For example, offer
discount coupons to your most valuable shoppers on specific offerings
within Specialty Retailers and take a share of the revenue. Or, how
about reaching out to your top-tier five or ten percent of your
shoppers, gathering their holiday shopping lists and then arranging
bulk buys on selected merchandise through Specialty Retailers or
through your own buying departments? In other words, extend the value
that you bring to your most important shoppers!
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Please note that the above results are part of a joint
ACNielsen/FMI study on Shopping for Food in 2004. Stay tuned for more
announcements regarding the availability of the complete study.
For further information or to arrange a comprehensive
presentation on consumer shopping patterns, please contact Todd Hale
at thale@acnielsen.com or
859-905-4615.
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Advertising & Marketing Trends: Place*Views
In an era when commercials can be clicked off in a micro-second by
the hand that rocks the remote control, advertisers need to expand
their marketing mix to include product placement with gusto, moxie,
and often, cash.
Integration/sponsorship deals, which product placements are
sometimes called, generate hundreds of millions of dollars for film,
television, book, and music producers because advertisers like Ford,
Coca-Cola, AT&T Wireless and others are very happy to shell out more
than $26 million EACH for the right to place their products in
strategic ways on television and in films. According to Nielsen Media
Research, the total dollars spent on product placements in 2003
topped $360 million.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Placing products prominently in films is hardly new. John Huston
allowed Gordon's Gin to place its famous bottles in the hands of the
teetotaler character Katharine Hepburn played in "The African Queen"
before she tossed them overboard.
For years, product placement in film and television has been a
subtle way to gain exposure for everything from household products to
alcohol and cigarettes, to airlines, and anything else a clever
marketing person could get on the set. For a while, it was a gentle
win-win situation -- movie and television producers picked up a
little extra cash, and marketers got a few seconds of exposure for
their client at considerably less money than traditional advertising.
Twenty years ago, product placement was done sometimes by chance,
other times by the proverbial "who you know" law of connection.
Nowadays, placement agencies and corporations dedicated solely to
this new advertising venue scout out opportunities fulltime for both
product placement and for "product integration," the use of a product
as part of the plot line, such as Revlon cosmetics on the daytime
soap opera, "All My Children." Some shows include both approaches and
are sometimes even combined with thirty-second spots throughout the
shows.
Product placement in video games has been likened to giving
"credibility and realism" to the game, or is it, as some critics
aver, "just another ad"? These critics believe that excessive product
placement is as blatant as traditional commercial advertisements, and
they want the Federal Trade Commission to regulate its use in all
media and determine how much is enough. The FTC is reviewing the
topic, and legislation is pending.
Product placement is also hot in music these days, although it's
not new to the popular song. Who hasn't heard "Buy me some peanuts
and Cracker Jack" in the 1908 novelty tune, "Take Me Out to the Ball
Game"? It seems rather innocent compared to the blatant images of
Adidas in music videos, on CD sleeves or in the songs themselves.
Clearly, the use of product placements will grow as more viewers
take advantage of commercial-zapping technologies.
Measurement of product placements began with the start of the
2003-2004 broadcast season, when Nielsen Media Research started
tracking the promotional practice on prime time television. Analysts
watch tapes of shows, note each time they see a commercial product,
and the amount of time the image appears. Beginning in February 2004,
Nielsen Media Research launched Place*Views, the first service to
gauge placement viewership.
For more information about the new Place*Views service from
Nielsen Media Research, please contact Kerry Kielar at 646.654.8357
or
Kerry.Kielar@nielsenmedia.com
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LabelTrends: The Demise of Trans Fats
Over the past year, many food brands have been reformulated to
eliminate trans fats for two basic reasons: research has shown that
eating trans fats increases the risk for heart disease, and the US
Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced in July of 2003 that
food labels must include the amount of trans fat in foods by January
1, 2006.
Trans fats are used in foods, instead of oils, because they can
reduce costs, extend a product's storage life, and improve the food's
flavor and texture. Trans fat is formed when liquid vegetable oil is
turned into a solid, most commonly in the manufacture of margarine or
shortening. The process is to "bubble" hydrogen gas through vegetable
oil, which actually changes the chemical structure of the fat,
turning some of it into trans fats.
With the government's labeling regulation and a deluge of
negative press, shoppers have become acutely aware of this ingredient
listing and, in a recent SupermarketGuru.com Consumer Poll, 93
percent of respondents said that they would "be making an effort to
avoid trans fats in (their) future food purchases."
ACNielsen's LabelTrends tracks those products that have a "no
trans fat" claim on their package's primary panel, and while many
food companies are reformulating their recipes without adding an
on-pack declaration, we can already see a substantial sales increase
for those brands who have elected to do so. To date, "no trans fat"
offerings are found in 133 of the 635 total food and non-alcoholic
beverage product categories ACNielsen tracks.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Sales of such products through the combined Grocery/Drug/Mass
Merchandise (excluding Wal-Mart) channel totaled $6.4 billion dollars
for the 52 weeks ending 10/02/04, representing 2.9 percent of all
food and non-alcoholic beverage sales. The segment grew 12 percent
vs. one year ago, compared to total food and non-alcoholic beverage
sales growth of 1.5 percent.
Foods that typically contain high amounts of trans fats and will
most likely be going through a "nutritional correction" before the
January 1, 2006 label mandate include:
Most Margarines and Shortenings
Processed foods
Deep-fried fast food, like French fries
Foods that list "partially hydrogenated oils" in the
ingredients, e.g., crackers, cake mixes, snack cakes, snack foods,
chips, doughnuts, pie crusts, biscuits, breakfast cereals, frozen
waffles, microwave popcorn, packaged cookies, and other baked and
fried items.
Click on thumbnails to enlarge
Use this link if you've received the text version
for graph one (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Dec04TF2.jpg) and this
link for graph two (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Dec04TF3.jpg)
We can also anticipate, based on food marketing history, that
many brands that never contained trans fats will tout that fact on
their labels and in their advertising. As the new Recommended Daily
Allowances are issued in early 2005, expect to see an even greater
influence on label reading for all nutrients, with a major negative
impact on all foods that contain frans fats, i.e., "partially
hydrogenated oil" or "shortening." Nutritionists and the media will
alert consumers to look for those in the ingredient statements.
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How SOY Product Maturity Is Changing Its Growth Pattern
Sales of soy foods are growing moderately. However, within the
broader category, there are several promising growth stories. Unit
sales for the overall segment were flat for the 52 weeks ending
10/30/04, with a five percent increase in terms of dollars, according
to ACNielsen LabelTrends(TM), which tracks products with soy
mentioned on the package (apart from the ingredient list) in the
combined Food/ Drug/Mass channel (excluding Wal-Mart).
Click on thumbnails to enlarge
Use this link if you've received the text version
for graph one (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Dec04Soy1.jpg) and this
link for graph two (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Dec04Soy2.jpg)
Over the last five years, soy food dollar sales have grown 46
percent to become a $1.6 billion market. During that period, though,
as markets for several major categories of soy foods have begun to
mature, overall growth for soy food has been leveling off. Among the
largest categories in the soy foods area, dollar sales of baby food
and ready-to-serve prepared foods declined slightly, while soymilk
sales grew moderately. Unit sales in these categories were flat or
down. Sales of soy baby food have plunged 37 percent over the last
five years, due to the introduction of competing products such as
lactose-free, non-soy formula.
Excluding the five categories of baby food, milk, ready-to-serve
prepared foods, snacks, and cereal, which, combined, account for
nearly 80 percent of dollar sales and nearly 70 percent of the unit
sales in the soy segment, soy foods' unit growth last year was a much
livelier eight percent.
Where is the growth? The soy pasta and soy soups categories have
been among the most dynamic in recent months. Dry soy pasta unit
sales shot up by 234 percent in the 52 weeks ending 10/30/04, after a
49 percent rise for the year earlier. That category accounted for
$5.3 million in sales last year, largely from spaghetti and macaroni
products. Soy food industry observers report that upcoming USDA
nutrition standards will recommend higher levels of whole grains in
Americans' diet.
Soups were almost as hot as pasta in the recent 52-week period,
with a unit sales jump 760 percent. Dry soup mixes and bases
accounted for virtually all of the $2.3 million in soy soup sales.
Soy candy is a small category that spiked impressively in the
last year, up 2,995 percent in terms of dollars, for a dollar total
of $1.8 million.
A steadier grower is soy yogurt, with unit sales increases of 28
percent in the year ending 11/01/03 and 24 percent through 10/30/04.
Dollar sales of soy yogurt were $13 million for that period, with a
product from one of the major national yogurt brands leading the way.
Soy cereal has taken off over the last five years, growing from a
$10 million market to $113 million. The biggest growth spurts
occurred in '01 and '02, as a major brand introduced a soy-based dry
breakfast cereal, but unit sales growth in the 52 weeks ending
10/30/04 were still up a healthy 30 percent. With consistent growth
over several years, and now accounting for over seven percent of the
soy foods market, the cereal category seems to be catching on with
mainstream consumers. Recent dramatic changes in the cereal
business, such as decreasing sugar levels and increased whole grains
in popular brands, suggest further opportunities for soy in this
area.
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FLU AND COLD SEASON 2005: OTC Remedies and the Vaccine Shortage
With shortages of the influenza vaccine in the U.S. making headlines,
retailers are wondering what impact the most highly publicized
vaccine shortage in recent history will have on sales of
over-the-counter cough and cold remedies.
A week-by-week comparison of ACNielsen sales data with flu
statistics from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) shows that
sales of OTC cough and cold remedies (now topping $3.5 billion a year
according to ACNielsen Strategic Planner) rise and fall roughly in
synch with the onset and decline of the flu season. In each of the
past three years, weekly sales of cough and cold remedies peaked at
levels between $120 and $170 million from December to March, declined
gradually in the spring, and bottomed out at around $60 million
between June and August. Early September through late November
typically sees a gradual rise to sales of $80 to $120 million per
week.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
CDC flu statistics show a similar, if somewhat less predictable
seasonality. The 2001-02 and 2002-03 flu seasons each saw positive
tests for flu viruses begin to increase markedly in early to mid
December and peak in early to mid February.
The key variables are when will each year's flu season begin and
how severe will it be? Last year, it began earlier than the previous
two years, with a sharp uptick in late October, building to a peak in
the month of December. OTC cough and cold remedies for the period,
however, followed roughly the same weekly patterns as the previous
two seasons. Perhaps retailers simply weren't ready for such an
early start to the flu season.
Last year's flu season was also more severe than in previous
years. At the height of the 2003-04 season, the CDC reports that
positive tests for the flu virus reached over 35 percent (compared
with peaks of 24.7 percent in 02-03 and 25.7 percent in 01-02).
Similarly, OTC cough and cold remedy sales reached a peak of $175
million in December of '03, with above average sales continuing for
six consecutive weeks.
While the CDC can't predict the length or severity of any year's
epidemic, its website reports that flu activity through mid November
has been low. The key question this year is how will the flu vaccine
shortage affect consumer purchasing of OTC remedies?
Looking forward, the OTC Cough & Cold Remedies Category will be
experiencing a shift with the recent introduction of two popular
cough and cold remedies in the 'film strip' format. While one
scenario might suggest that this product line will add incremental
sales based on consumers purchasing these more effective (since they
contain Dextromethorphan) and ultra-convenient remedies, to have at
their ready in purses and briefcases; another suggests a shift away
from cough drops and lozenges or even syrups (most likely) and gel
caps to this more convenient form of medicine.
Overall, though, there is a flattening trend in total dollar
sales of OTC cough and cold remedies. In looking at the latest 12
week period (ending 11/27/04) vs. the prior two years in Combined
Outlets) the average number of Cold Remedy UPCs has declined slightly
from 137 to 130. The entire Cough/Cold/Allergy/Sinus category
however, has grown from 236 items to 252 (an increase of seven
percent) over the past two years. The driver has been the new
Loratadine Allergy items including Claritin and Alavert.
It's important to note that Cold Remedy dollar sales have
actually declined over the past 12 weeks vs. last year suggesting
that consumers are not stocking-up on these products in light of the
flu vaccine frenzy. If there is a severe flu season, which at this
point seems unlikely, then there is a possibility of higher suffering
given the fewer vaccines, which would translate to an upturn in
sales.
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Yogurt Sales: A Whole Lotta Shakin' (and Drinkin') Going On
Sales growth in the $2.8 billion yogurt industry slumped somewhat in
the past year as the low-carb craze took its toll, especially early
in the year. But even low-carb couldn't dampen the surge in the
Refrigerated Yogurt Shakes and Drinks segment.
According to ACNielsen Strategic Planner, unit sales for the
Total Yogurt category in the U.S for the 52 weeks ending 10/2/04 were
up only 1.5 percent over the previous year, after several years of
six to eight percent increases. Unit sales for Refrigerated Yogurt
were flat for the year. However, the Refrigerated Yogurt Shakes &
Drinks segment, with 46 percent unit sales growth, was buoyant enough
to put the Total Yogurt figures in the positive for the period.
Dollar sales growth for Total Yogurt paints a brighter picture
than unit sales do, with an increase of 5.2 percent for the 52 weeks
ending 10/02/04, due to higher prices in the Shakes & Drinks category
as well as a trend toward multiplicity in packaging for more
expensive units.
Still, even Shakes & Drinks couldn't match their explosive 92
percent sales growth of the year earlier period, though this is
likely due to lack of sufficient shelf space to keep up with rate of
growth. Many retailers are seeking to expand their space for yogurt
drinks. With dollar sales of $375 million, Shakes & Drinks now
represent 13 percent of total yogurt sales (up from nine percent a
year ago).
Other trends within the yogurt universe indicate that health and
diet conscious consumers are driving sales.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Total unit sales growth for fat-free yogurt (Refrigerated Yogurt
and Refrigerated Shakes & Drinks combined), were not as skinny as the
total market and now represent 27 percent of yogurt sales dollars.
While organic yogurt products amounted to only five percent of the
Total Yogurt category, that share has been steadily increasing,
doubling from four years ago.
Many new Carb-Conscious yogurt products were introduced in the
past year, resulting in astronomical sales growth in that segment (33
thousand percent!), though the sales base is low and the trend's
sustainability remains to be seen.
A recovery for yogurt from the low-carb assault is discernable in
the quarterly numbers. Total Yogurt sales took their biggest hit in
the 13 weeks ending 3/27/04, with a decline of four percent and
recovered to slightly positive growth in the following two quarters,
perhaps in line with a tapering off of the low-carb trend.
Refrigerated Yogurt Shakes & Drinks, meanwhile, grew 84 percent, 45
percent, and 18 percent respectively in those three quarters.
A new generation of yogurt products known as "probiotics," whose
claims for gastrointestinal and immune system benefits appear to be
on even firmer scientific ground than every-day yogurt, will likely
have a substantial impact on the yogurt category in 2005. Probiotics,
a term coined by the United Nations' Food and Agriculture
Organization, are defined as "live microorganisms which, when
administered in adequate amounts, confer health benefits on the
host." While some contend that all yogurts with live and active
cultures could be considered probiotic, the normal yogurt strains
don't survive in high numbers in the intestines. The American market
for probiotic yogurt products is still in its infancy. Organic dairy
Stonyfield, the third largest yogurt maker, with six percent of the
market, adds four probiotic cultures to all of its yogurt, as do most
other natural food yogurt manufacturers. Dannon, meanwhile, has
introduced "DanActive," which contains L. casei cultures and is
currently being tested in selected markets.
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PACKAGING TRENDS: They're In The Can
With consumers looking for ever more convenience, the new revolution
in metal can manufacturing now enables consumers to buy microwaveable
cans, cans that are 'self-heating', and even cans that promise not to
impact the flavor or texture of the food packed in the can. Although
the technology has been around for decades, and as recently as 2002
Nestle introduced some coffee products with self-heating cans, there
is still a need for production improvements and lower package cost.
The three-piece 'self-heating' cans have a bulky, heat-generating
chamber in the can's interior, thus reducing the capacity of the
cans. As the technology improves expect a new paradigm for "to go"
coffees, soups and an extension of the technology to more hearty
products like chili and stews.
Until that technology evolves, the canning industry is moving
towards the use of peelable lids and polymer steel construction to
help brands differentiate themselves and offer consumer benefits.
The new opening tab, EZO, (for "easy to open") now accounts for
nearly one-third of the U.S. market, and estimates for 2008 are that
EZO cans will be used for two-thirds of the canned foods market - a
big help for aging baby boomers, many of whom will experience some
form of arthritis. Polymer coated steel cans give enhanced protection
to products like fish without compromising the flavor or texture in
any way.
However, can manufacturers aren't just thinking of the senior
market, but also children and the disabled. To help these segments
of the market and to extend the life of the products in the cans, new
technology called Top Dot(TM) has come up with a low cost plastic
dimple or "dot" placed in the middle of the top of the can. When
peeled back, the lid lifts off easily because of the vacuum release.
Less expensive than glass or plastic packaging, the new dot top is
both easy to open and close, and its resealable lid assures product
freshness for a second or third helping.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
As we look at the leading Canned Foods categories it is easy to
see that what was once the food package of choice, needs updating if
it is to reverse the declines exhibited above. Home kitchens have
become more stylish and upscale, and it appears that the can opener
has practically disappeared. As new technologies such as self-heating
and easy-open cans become more pervasive, we may see new life
breathed into many of the canned foods categories.
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Sales Opportunities: The Purchase Cycle
Every retailer and CPG brand manager understands that it's easier to
sell more to existing customers than to find new customers.
That's why the "purchase cycle," the average days between
purchases among repeat buyers, is such an important number. Using
ACNielsen Homescan Consumer*Facts, which tracks 1,058 categories, a
review of categories with the highest purchase frequency shows that
they are often the most price sensitive.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Since customers are shopping these categories most often,
in-store marketing tools such as a simple shelf-talker, demo or
frequent shopper card discount may easily convert (or steal) a
customer from one brand to another.
Merchandising related products within categories can also
increase both sales and consumption. For example, displaying pet
accessories near pet foods, placing banana "trees" in the breakfast
cereal aisle and adding shelf extenders loaded with salsa and other
dips to the potato chip shelves are all effective frequency and
impulse sales builders. But more outside-the-box thinking is needed
here. How about merchandising cookies in the cooler next to milk?
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Categories with longer than average purchase cycles present a
different marketing challenge. While no marketer would suggest that a
woman use twice as much blush or that both men and women double their
purchasing of pre-shave lotions; there are opportunities for many
other low-frequency categories.
Some leading brands of food products effectively use on-pack
recipes, most notably Campbell Soup, to increase consumption.
Categories such as horseradish have an opportunity to increase
consumption as well by offering recipes and tying into the increasing
trend of hot and spicier foods. Non-foods, such as wax paper and
paper lunch bags, can also increase their sales by suggesting
additional uses and through secondary displays. Most shoppers already
acknowledge ripening fruit at home in a brown paper bag, but how many
produce departments display packages of paper bags?
Integrated merchandising is an effective tool to boost sales when
the cross-merchandising makes sense and clearly shows a benefit for
the customer. Driving usage of some categories, such as Dishwasher
Rinsing Aids, is constrained by the appliances in which they are
used. Others, such as Oven Cleaners, have the opportunity to expand
usage via marketing, promoting benefits such as "better tasting
foods," for example, instead of just "easy to use."
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2005 Food Trends...Better Nutrition and Better Flavor
Each fall, the SupermarketGuru.com Consumer Panel Survey measures
current eating habits against those that the panel expects to consume
in the coming year. This year's survey found that the "Nutritional
Value" and "Price" of the main ingredient for dinner were tied as the
most important factor in selecting a food product, indicating to us
that with the release of the new Recommended Daily Allowances (and
the substantial marketing efforts that are expected to drive shoppers
to read the Nutritional Facts labels) the major food trend in 2005
will be all about healthy eating. Those retailers and brands which
enjoy a value positioning, and combine that with products that have a
strong nutritional benefit, are clearly in a strong position.
Click on thumbnails to enlarge
Use this link if you've received the text version
for graph one (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Dec04SG1.jpg) and this
link for graph two (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Dec04SG2.jpg)
Italian food continues to top our list of the cuisines consumed
most often by our panel, as it did in our 2003 survey, with Mexican
losing ground and moving to the number three position, being
displaced by "Low Fat," which ranked fourth in 2003. Low Carb has
also decreased dramatically: in the 2003 survey, 41 percent planned
on consuming more Low Carb foods in the coming year, while the
current survey reports just 32 percent intend to do so, mirroring the
waning new product introductions and sales decreases in the category.
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COUNTRY-TO-COUNTRY: A Look at the Fastest Growing Categories in the Indian Grocery Channel
American supermarkets are stuffed with 40,000+ SKUs, including foods
from around the globe. A walk through food stores in other parts of
the world offers a very different experience, but for how long? As
US, EU and Latin American brands continue their globalization we can
expect to see a shift in the type of foods consumed.
For the 52 weeks ending July 31, 2004 we see that Shelf Stable
Meal Starters leads the top ten growth categories in the US, no doubt
underscoring the American desire for convenience, followed by nuts (a
quick on-the-run protein source) and bottled water (a result of the
bottled water price wars).
Click on thumbnails to enlarge
Use this link if you've received the text version
for graph one (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/
Dec04C2C1.jpg) and this link for graph two (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/
Dec04C2C2.jpg)
In India, growth categories include Breakfast Cereals, Eclairs
and Ketchup/Sauces underscoring the globalization of foods. As this
country continues its meteoric growth as the outsourcing capital for
the back room functions for many US businesses, we can expect to see
a greater impact from US brands as more American managers make India
their home. Expect to see a strong impact from more convenient and
Western packaging technologies on all categories as well.
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ACNielsen estimates that in 2003, over $2.4 billion was spent across
all retail channels in the Shortening/Oil category, which includes
salad & cooking oil, cooking sprays, olive oil, shortening, and lard.
The following slides indicate the percentage of households who buy
each type of shortening/oil, as well as a sampling of higher indexing
household types who buy products in the overall shortening/oils
category, and channel share of category dollar sales.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Facts, Figures and the Future is copyrighted and may not be
reproduced without prior permission. For more information about the
publication, please contact Phil Lempert at 323-860-3070 or via
e-mail at
PLempert@FactsFiguresFuture.com
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