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The ring of 2005 holds much promise...and a different tune for grocers.

The New Year is just a couple short weeks away, and with this annual event comes predictions, individual appraisals of the previous twelve months and the requisite...New Year's resolutions!

My recommendation in planning for 2005 is to "cut through it all" and say that 2005 looks like it'll be a year of strength in the grocery business.

Supermarkets are refocused and putting more effort behind center store, understanding consumer desires and in-store technologies. The scare of RFID has passed and is quickly becoming a reality both in the backroom and within the next 12 months in the front of store. Even the government seems to be on board as we await their announcement of the new Recommended Daily Allowances, which, if they (along with the support of the CPG companies and supermarkets) promote properly, could actually make a dent in the "war" on fat and help reduce obesity, diabetes and heart disease.

The "nutritional correction" that we predicted over a year ago, has become reality - and CPG companies are to be commended. Consumers are embracing the reduction in sugars, fats, carbs and sodium along with the elimination of trans fats, and quite possibly, based on the sales increases for these products, have reinforced the fact that Americans really will buy these products.

My promise to you is that in 2005 Facts, Figures & the Future will continue to be committed to bring you the latest and most insightful findings about consumer trends. Our F3 community is nearly 11,000 of the smartest and most consumer-focused professionals - our thanks go out to Michael Sansolo at the Food Marketing Institute and the team at ACNielsen who through their insights and support make F3 a unique and valuable resource.

Here's to a happy and healthy holiday season ...and to a fabulous 2005!

Knowing Where Your Most Valuable Shoppers Shop Can Uncover Opportunities
Advertising & Marketing Trends: Place*Views
LabelTrends: The Demise of Trans Fats
How SOY Product Maturity Is Changing Its Growth Pattern
FLU AND COLD SEASON 2005: OTC Remedies and the Vaccine Shortage
Yogurt Sales: A Whole Lotta Shakin' (and Drinkin') Going On
PACKAGING TRENDS: They're In The Can
Sales Opportunities: The Purchase Cycle
2005 Food Trends...Better Nutrition and Better Flavor
COUNTRY-TO-COUNTRY: A Look at the Fastest Growing Categories in the Indian Grocery Channel
Channel Watch


ACNielsen's latest annual Consumer & Market Trends Report is now available. For information and to order click here.

Warehouse Clubs have established themselves as a major retail channel that is here to stay. Find out everything you need to know about the consumers who shop this channel in ACNielsen's latest study. Click Here for more details.


The FMI/Rodale Shopping for Health survey of consumers is available.
Click here
for more details.
ACNielsen's latest Private Label Trends Report is now available. For information, click here.



December 13, 2004


What's in store...?

Is the face of supermarket retailing changing?

Certainly, when it comes to size, change seems to be in the air and in stores across the country. FMI's annual study of store development trends (Facts About Store Development) found a number of interesting trends that might provide a clear picture of how retailers are trying to match stores to different types of shoppers and shopping trips.

At the top of the list is the sharply increasing number of small targeted stores that opened in the past year. Although these specialty operators make up only two percent of the current store population, nearly 15 percent of the new stores opened in the past year fell into this category. These small stores are focused on three main merchandising areas: gourmet, natural foods and Hispanic shoppers.

The impact of all these new smaller stores was profound on the statistical averages FMI tracks, specifically for store size, which fell to 34,000 square feet. This was the first time in a decade that average store size dipped below 40,000 square feet, but it's not a sign that large stores are going away. Rather, it demonstrates the target marketing that is happening across the country with retailers attempting to find the right store size for different shoppers and different shopping occasions.

An interesting aspect of small stores is the speed with which they can arrive on the scene and begin to alter a market area. On average, it takes 32 weeks to build and open an average new store; but the smaller stores join the marketplace in a remarkable 12 weeks.

What's being put inside all stores today - and what's on the drawing board for the future - paints a clear picture of what works best for today's shoppers. Delis and fresh seafood departments were part of every new store opened in the past year; while ethnic foods departments, floral, take-out food, pharmacies and low-carb sections are planned for 90 percent.

The emphasis on value shopping and speed-of-checkout is also clear. Dollar-item aisles were included in 20 percent of new stores (as compared to just six percent one year earlier). Likewise, the number of new stores featuring self-scanning checkouts jumped to nearly one-third in the new report, up from 17.5 percent a year earlier.

Retailers expect to remodel 10 percent of their stores in 2005, and no doubt, we'll continue to see stores evolve as they probe for winning strategies.

Needless to say, the era of change isn't over.

 

A New Perspective on Retail Performance

The ability to monitor business performance has been an essential part of the CPG marketer's toolbox since Arthur C. Nielsen created the concept of market share more than 80 years ago. While the original process may seem crude by today's standards - physically counting products on store shelves - it provided important new insights.

Since then, measures of share - market, wallet, stomach and more - have become an integral part of the business lexicon, and the measurement process has become much more sophisticated. However, despite these advances, retailers have lacked a reliable means to monitor total-store market share.

Intense competition between supermarkets, drug stores, discounters, dollar stores and others have caused monumental shifts in the retail landscape, making performance measurement even more challenging. In the dollar store channel, the fastest-growing channel in the U.S., stores are opening at a rate of six per day! And in the mass merchandiser channel, over half of the eight new stores that open every week are supercenters, showing a shift from the traditional discount format to one that includes a grocery component.

As channels continue to blur, it is more important than ever to have reliable, trendable and timely competitive performance benchmarks. Moreover, information must be increasingly flexible to account for each retailer's unique trade area definition, yet also able to conform to industry standard geographic definitions (DMA, MSA, and Scantrack Major Markets)

To address those needs, ACNielsen has now launched Retail ACView. Developed in conjunction with TDLinx, a division of ACNielsen, the web-delivered service provides key quarterly metrics such as: ACV market share trends, channel share trends, store count changes, market entrants and seasonal share variability. With this tool, retailers are able to analyze market share and store count trends in their own custom geographies and across channel definitions.

As the competitive retail landscape continues to evolve, so does the marketer's toolbox. While success ultimately depends on how well retailers connect with their shoppers, Retail ACView is a critical new component in helping them understand their competition and make informed business decisions.


Knowing Where Your Most Valuable Shoppers Shop Can Uncover Opportunities
Last month we discussed opportunities for Grocery retailers to reduce the decline of Grocery channel shopping trips by focusing on Dry Grocery Department assortment. While expanded variety has been a strength for mainstream Hi/Lo Grocery retailers, we questioned whether all of the assortment is worth the added expense. Reduced assortment could lead to reduced costs and enable Grocery retailers to be more competitively priced versus value-based retailers. Additionally, reduced assortment could allow Grocery retailers to free up space for assortment that their shoppers want and that other retailers can't easily replicate or deliver as well. This month we want to illustrate how Grocery retailers can uncover sales opportunities by better understanding the other retailers and channels where their most valuable shoppers shop.

In a joint FMI/ACNielsen study, we identified the heaviest spenders within Mass Supercenters and within a wide selection of Hi/Lo, EDLP and Specialty Grocery retailers. The heaviest spenders represented the highest one-third of shoppers based on annual spending rates in each of these formats. When we examine other channel shopping trips made by heavy segment shoppers, we see different competitive frames across the formats. Heavy shoppers in the three Grocery retail segments make more trips than do heavy Supercenter shoppers, while heavy Supercenter shoppers offset Grocery trips with a lot of trips to the Mass channel and to Supercenters. There is high interaction with the Drug channel for all three Grocery formats, which suggests continued opportunity for expanded Prescription (Rx) Drug offerings. The growing importance of aging consumers and their increasing demand for Rx Drugs can enable additional trip capture and shopping basket expansion for Grocery retailers. More and more retailers are either adding Rx departments to their service mix, extending their Rx department hours, offering on-site inoculations, and/or adding drive-up/walk-up windows to make Rx trips more convenient.

The Club channel is important for heavy Specialty Grocery shoppers. How about maximizing the capture of center-store or perimeter department purchases that consumers don't want to buy in large quantities within the Club channel, or consider periodic "club pack" offerings? Heavy EDLP shoppers make relatively more trips to Mass, Supercenter and Dollar Store retailers - a potential opportunity for expanded seasonal item focus.


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When we examine shopping trips to alternative channels, we see that Heavy Grocery shoppers make more trips to alternative retail channels. Grocery retailers can turn this into an opportunity by adding store-within-a-store concepts around home/auto repair; home entertainment via book, movie and music assortment; home/business office supplies; specialty wines, etc. Another option would be to engage in joint promotions/programs with Specialty Retailers to keep those trips from going to Mass retailers. For example, offer discount coupons to your most valuable shoppers on specific offerings within Specialty Retailers and take a share of the revenue. Or, how about reaching out to your top-tier five or ten percent of your shoppers, gathering their holiday shopping lists and then arranging bulk buys on selected merchandise through Specialty Retailers or through your own buying departments? In other words, extend the value that you bring to your most important shoppers!


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Please note that the above results are part of a joint ACNielsen/FMI study on Shopping for Food in 2004. Stay tuned for more announcements regarding the availability of the complete study.

For further information or to arrange a comprehensive presentation on consumer shopping patterns, please contact Todd Hale at thale@acnielsen.com or 859-905-4615.


Advertising & Marketing Trends: Place*Views
In an era when commercials can be clicked off in a micro-second by the hand that rocks the remote control, advertisers need to expand their marketing mix to include product placement with gusto, moxie, and often, cash.

Integration/sponsorship deals, which product placements are sometimes called, generate hundreds of millions of dollars for film, television, book, and music producers because advertisers like Ford, Coca-Cola, AT&T Wireless and others are very happy to shell out more than $26 million EACH for the right to place their products in strategic ways on television and in films. According to Nielsen Media Research, the total dollars spent on product placements in 2003 topped $360 million.


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Placing products prominently in films is hardly new. John Huston allowed Gordon's Gin to place its famous bottles in the hands of the teetotaler character Katharine Hepburn played in "The African Queen" before she tossed them overboard.

For years, product placement in film and television has been a subtle way to gain exposure for everything from household products to alcohol and cigarettes, to airlines, and anything else a clever marketing person could get on the set. For a while, it was a gentle win-win situation -- movie and television producers picked up a little extra cash, and marketers got a few seconds of exposure for their client at considerably less money than traditional advertising.

Twenty years ago, product placement was done sometimes by chance, other times by the proverbial "who you know" law of connection. Nowadays, placement agencies and corporations dedicated solely to this new advertising venue scout out opportunities fulltime for both product placement and for "product integration," the use of a product as part of the plot line, such as Revlon cosmetics on the daytime soap opera, "All My Children." Some shows include both approaches and are sometimes even combined with thirty-second spots throughout the shows.

Product placement in video games has been likened to giving "credibility and realism" to the game, or is it, as some critics aver, "just another ad"? These critics believe that excessive product placement is as blatant as traditional commercial advertisements, and they want the Federal Trade Commission to regulate its use in all media and determine how much is enough. The FTC is reviewing the topic, and legislation is pending.

Product placement is also hot in music these days, although it's not new to the popular song. Who hasn't heard "Buy me some peanuts and Cracker Jack" in the 1908 novelty tune, "Take Me Out to the Ball Game"? It seems rather innocent compared to the blatant images of Adidas in music videos, on CD sleeves or in the songs themselves.

Clearly, the use of product placements will grow as more viewers take advantage of commercial-zapping technologies.

Measurement of product placements began with the start of the 2003-2004 broadcast season, when Nielsen Media Research started tracking the promotional practice on prime time television. Analysts watch tapes of shows, note each time they see a commercial product, and the amount of time the image appears. Beginning in February 2004, Nielsen Media Research launched Place*Views, the first service to gauge placement viewership.

For more information about the new Place*Views service from Nielsen Media Research, please contact Kerry Kielar at 646.654.8357 or Kerry.Kielar@nielsenmedia.com

LabelTrends: The Demise of Trans Fats
Over the past year, many food brands have been reformulated to eliminate trans fats for two basic reasons: research has shown that eating trans fats increases the risk for heart disease, and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced in July of 2003 that food labels must include the amount of trans fat in foods by January 1, 2006.

Trans fats are used in foods, instead of oils, because they can reduce costs, extend a product's storage life, and improve the food's flavor and texture. Trans fat is formed when liquid vegetable oil is turned into a solid, most commonly in the manufacture of margarine or shortening. The process is to "bubble" hydrogen gas through vegetable oil, which actually changes the chemical structure of the fat, turning some of it into trans fats.

With the government's labeling regulation and a deluge of negative press, shoppers have become acutely aware of this ingredient listing and, in a recent SupermarketGuru.com Consumer Poll, 93 percent of respondents said that they would "be making an effort to avoid trans fats in (their) future food purchases."

ACNielsen's LabelTrends tracks those products that have a "no trans fat" claim on their package's primary panel, and while many food companies are reformulating their recipes without adding an on-pack declaration, we can already see a substantial sales increase for those brands who have elected to do so. To date, "no trans fat" offerings are found in 133 of the 635 total food and non-alcoholic beverage product categories ACNielsen tracks.


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Sales of such products through the combined Grocery/Drug/Mass Merchandise (excluding Wal-Mart) channel totaled $6.4 billion dollars for the 52 weeks ending 10/02/04, representing 2.9 percent of all food and non-alcoholic beverage sales. The segment grew 12 percent vs. one year ago, compared to total food and non-alcoholic beverage sales growth of 1.5 percent.

Foods that typically contain high amounts of trans fats and will most likely be going through a "nutritional correction" before the January 1, 2006 label mandate include:

  • Most Margarines and Shortenings

  • Processed foods

  • Deep-fried fast food, like French fries

  • Foods that list "partially hydrogenated oils" in the ingredients, e.g., crackers, cake mixes, snack cakes, snack foods, chips, doughnuts, pie crusts, biscuits, breakfast cereals, frozen waffles, microwave popcorn, packaged cookies, and other baked and fried items.










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    We can also anticipate, based on food marketing history, that many brands that never contained trans fats will tout that fact on their labels and in their advertising. As the new Recommended Daily Allowances are issued in early 2005, expect to see an even greater influence on label reading for all nutrients, with a major negative impact on all foods that contain frans fats, i.e., "partially hydrogenated oil" or "shortening." Nutritionists and the media will alert consumers to look for those in the ingredient statements.

  • How SOY Product Maturity Is Changing Its Growth Pattern
    Sales of soy foods are growing moderately. However, within the broader category, there are several promising growth stories. Unit sales for the overall segment were flat for the 52 weeks ending 10/30/04, with a five percent increase in terms of dollars, according to ACNielsen LabelTrends(TM), which tracks products with soy mentioned on the package (apart from the ingredient list) in the combined Food/ Drug/Mass channel (excluding Wal-Mart).










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    Over the last five years, soy food dollar sales have grown 46 percent to become a $1.6 billion market. During that period, though, as markets for several major categories of soy foods have begun to mature, overall growth for soy food has been leveling off. Among the largest categories in the soy foods area, dollar sales of baby food and ready-to-serve prepared foods declined slightly, while soymilk sales grew moderately. Unit sales in these categories were flat or down. Sales of soy baby food have plunged 37 percent over the last five years, due to the introduction of competing products such as lactose-free, non-soy formula.

    Excluding the five categories of baby food, milk, ready-to-serve prepared foods, snacks, and cereal, which, combined, account for nearly 80 percent of dollar sales and nearly 70 percent of the unit sales in the soy segment, soy foods' unit growth last year was a much livelier eight percent.

    Where is the growth? The soy pasta and soy soups categories have been among the most dynamic in recent months. Dry soy pasta unit sales shot up by 234 percent in the 52 weeks ending 10/30/04, after a 49 percent rise for the year earlier. That category accounted for $5.3 million in sales last year, largely from spaghetti and macaroni products. Soy food industry observers report that upcoming USDA nutrition standards will recommend higher levels of whole grains in Americans' diet.

    Soups were almost as hot as pasta in the recent 52-week period, with a unit sales jump 760 percent. Dry soup mixes and bases accounted for virtually all of the $2.3 million in soy soup sales.

    Soy candy is a small category that spiked impressively in the last year, up 2,995 percent in terms of dollars, for a dollar total of $1.8 million.

    A steadier grower is soy yogurt, with unit sales increases of 28 percent in the year ending 11/01/03 and 24 percent through 10/30/04. Dollar sales of soy yogurt were $13 million for that period, with a product from one of the major national yogurt brands leading the way.

    Soy cereal has taken off over the last five years, growing from a $10 million market to $113 million. The biggest growth spurts occurred in '01 and '02, as a major brand introduced a soy-based dry breakfast cereal, but unit sales growth in the 52 weeks ending 10/30/04 were still up a healthy 30 percent. With consistent growth over several years, and now accounting for over seven percent of the soy foods market, the cereal category seems to be catching on with mainstream consumers. Recent dramatic changes in the cereal business, such as decreasing sugar levels and increased whole grains in popular brands, suggest further opportunities for soy in this area.

    FLU AND COLD SEASON 2005: OTC Remedies and the Vaccine Shortage
    With shortages of the influenza vaccine in the U.S. making headlines, retailers are wondering what impact the most highly publicized vaccine shortage in recent history will have on sales of over-the-counter cough and cold remedies.

    A week-by-week comparison of ACNielsen sales data with flu statistics from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) shows that sales of OTC cough and cold remedies (now topping $3.5 billion a year according to ACNielsen Strategic Planner) rise and fall roughly in synch with the onset and decline of the flu season. In each of the past three years, weekly sales of cough and cold remedies peaked at levels between $120 and $170 million from December to March, declined gradually in the spring, and bottomed out at around $60 million between June and August. Early September through late November typically sees a gradual rise to sales of $80 to $120 million per week.


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    CDC flu statistics show a similar, if somewhat less predictable seasonality. The 2001-02 and 2002-03 flu seasons each saw positive tests for flu viruses begin to increase markedly in early to mid December and peak in early to mid February.

    The key variables are when will each year's flu season begin and how severe will it be? Last year, it began earlier than the previous two years, with a sharp uptick in late October, building to a peak in the month of December. OTC cough and cold remedies for the period, however, followed roughly the same weekly patterns as the previous two seasons. Perhaps retailers simply weren't ready for such an early start to the flu season.

    Last year's flu season was also more severe than in previous years. At the height of the 2003-04 season, the CDC reports that positive tests for the flu virus reached over 35 percent (compared with peaks of 24.7 percent in 02-03 and 25.7 percent in 01-02). Similarly, OTC cough and cold remedy sales reached a peak of $175 million in December of '03, with above average sales continuing for six consecutive weeks.

    While the CDC can't predict the length or severity of any year's epidemic, its website reports that flu activity through mid November has been low. The key question this year is how will the flu vaccine shortage affect consumer purchasing of OTC remedies?

    Looking forward, the OTC Cough & Cold Remedies Category will be experiencing a shift with the recent introduction of two popular cough and cold remedies in the 'film strip' format. While one scenario might suggest that this product line will add incremental sales based on consumers purchasing these more effective (since they contain Dextromethorphan) and ultra-convenient remedies, to have at their ready in purses and briefcases; another suggests a shift away from cough drops and lozenges or even syrups (most likely) and gel caps to this more convenient form of medicine.

    Overall, though, there is a flattening trend in total dollar sales of OTC cough and cold remedies. In looking at the latest 12 week period (ending 11/27/04) vs. the prior two years in Combined Outlets) the average number of Cold Remedy UPCs has declined slightly from 137 to 130. The entire Cough/Cold/Allergy/Sinus category however, has grown from 236 items to 252 (an increase of seven percent) over the past two years. The driver has been the new Loratadine Allergy items including Claritin and Alavert.

    It's important to note that Cold Remedy dollar sales have actually declined over the past 12 weeks vs. last year suggesting that consumers are not stocking-up on these products in light of the flu vaccine frenzy. If there is a severe flu season, which at this point seems unlikely, then there is a possibility of higher suffering given the fewer vaccines, which would translate to an upturn in sales.

    Yogurt Sales: A Whole Lotta Shakin' (and Drinkin') Going On
    Sales growth in the $2.8 billion yogurt industry slumped somewhat in the past year as the low-carb craze took its toll, especially early in the year. But even low-carb couldn't dampen the surge in the Refrigerated Yogurt Shakes and Drinks segment.

    According to ACNielsen Strategic Planner, unit sales for the Total Yogurt category in the U.S for the 52 weeks ending 10/2/04 were up only 1.5 percent over the previous year, after several years of six to eight percent increases. Unit sales for Refrigerated Yogurt were flat for the year. However, the Refrigerated Yogurt Shakes & Drinks segment, with 46 percent unit sales growth, was buoyant enough to put the Total Yogurt figures in the positive for the period.

    Dollar sales growth for Total Yogurt paints a brighter picture than unit sales do, with an increase of 5.2 percent for the 52 weeks ending 10/02/04, due to higher prices in the Shakes & Drinks category as well as a trend toward multiplicity in packaging for more expensive units.

    Still, even Shakes & Drinks couldn't match their explosive 92 percent sales growth of the year earlier period, though this is likely due to lack of sufficient shelf space to keep up with rate of growth. Many retailers are seeking to expand their space for yogurt drinks. With dollar sales of $375 million, Shakes & Drinks now represent 13 percent of total yogurt sales (up from nine percent a year ago).

    Other trends within the yogurt universe indicate that health and diet conscious consumers are driving sales.


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    Total unit sales growth for fat-free yogurt (Refrigerated Yogurt and Refrigerated Shakes & Drinks combined), were not as skinny as the total market and now represent 27 percent of yogurt sales dollars. While organic yogurt products amounted to only five percent of the Total Yogurt category, that share has been steadily increasing, doubling from four years ago.

    Many new Carb-Conscious yogurt products were introduced in the past year, resulting in astronomical sales growth in that segment (33 thousand percent!), though the sales base is low and the trend's sustainability remains to be seen.

    A recovery for yogurt from the low-carb assault is discernable in the quarterly numbers. Total Yogurt sales took their biggest hit in the 13 weeks ending 3/27/04, with a decline of four percent and recovered to slightly positive growth in the following two quarters, perhaps in line with a tapering off of the low-carb trend. Refrigerated Yogurt Shakes & Drinks, meanwhile, grew 84 percent, 45 percent, and 18 percent respectively in those three quarters.

    A new generation of yogurt products known as "probiotics," whose claims for gastrointestinal and immune system benefits appear to be on even firmer scientific ground than every-day yogurt, will likely have a substantial impact on the yogurt category in 2005. Probiotics, a term coined by the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization, are defined as "live microorganisms which, when administered in adequate amounts, confer health benefits on the host." While some contend that all yogurts with live and active cultures could be considered probiotic, the normal yogurt strains don't survive in high numbers in the intestines. The American market for probiotic yogurt products is still in its infancy. Organic dairy Stonyfield, the third largest yogurt maker, with six percent of the market, adds four probiotic cultures to all of its yogurt, as do most other natural food yogurt manufacturers. Dannon, meanwhile, has introduced "DanActive," which contains L. casei cultures and is currently being tested in selected markets.

    PACKAGING TRENDS: They're In The Can
    With consumers looking for ever more convenience, the new revolution in metal can manufacturing now enables consumers to buy microwaveable cans, cans that are 'self-heating', and even cans that promise not to impact the flavor or texture of the food packed in the can. Although the technology has been around for decades, and as recently as 2002 Nestle introduced some coffee products with self-heating cans, there is still a need for production improvements and lower package cost. The three-piece 'self-heating' cans have a bulky, heat-generating chamber in the can's interior, thus reducing the capacity of the cans. As the technology improves expect a new paradigm for "to go" coffees, soups and an extension of the technology to more hearty products like chili and stews.

    Until that technology evolves, the canning industry is moving towards the use of peelable lids and polymer steel construction to help brands differentiate themselves and offer consumer benefits. The new opening tab, EZO, (for "easy to open") now accounts for nearly one-third of the U.S. market, and estimates for 2008 are that EZO cans will be used for two-thirds of the canned foods market - a big help for aging baby boomers, many of whom will experience some form of arthritis. Polymer coated steel cans give enhanced protection to products like fish without compromising the flavor or texture in any way.

    However, can manufacturers aren't just thinking of the senior market, but also children and the disabled. To help these segments of the market and to extend the life of the products in the cans, new technology called Top Dot(TM) has come up with a low cost plastic dimple or "dot" placed in the middle of the top of the can. When peeled back, the lid lifts off easily because of the vacuum release. Less expensive than glass or plastic packaging, the new dot top is both easy to open and close, and its resealable lid assures product freshness for a second or third helping.


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    As we look at the leading Canned Foods categories it is easy to see that what was once the food package of choice, needs updating if it is to reverse the declines exhibited above. Home kitchens have become more stylish and upscale, and it appears that the can opener has practically disappeared. As new technologies such as self-heating and easy-open cans become more pervasive, we may see new life breathed into many of the canned foods categories.

    Sales Opportunities: The Purchase Cycle
    Every retailer and CPG brand manager understands that it's easier to sell more to existing customers than to find new customers.

    That's why the "purchase cycle," the average days between purchases among repeat buyers, is such an important number. Using ACNielsen Homescan Consumer*Facts, which tracks 1,058 categories, a review of categories with the highest purchase frequency shows that they are often the most price sensitive.


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    Since customers are shopping these categories most often, in-store marketing tools such as a simple shelf-talker, demo or frequent shopper card discount may easily convert (or steal) a customer from one brand to another.

    Merchandising related products within categories can also increase both sales and consumption. For example, displaying pet accessories near pet foods, placing banana "trees" in the breakfast cereal aisle and adding shelf extenders loaded with salsa and other dips to the potato chip shelves are all effective frequency and impulse sales builders. But more outside-the-box thinking is needed here. How about merchandising cookies in the cooler next to milk?


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    Categories with longer than average purchase cycles present a different marketing challenge. While no marketer would suggest that a woman use twice as much blush or that both men and women double their purchasing of pre-shave lotions; there are opportunities for many other low-frequency categories.

    Some leading brands of food products effectively use on-pack recipes, most notably Campbell Soup, to increase consumption. Categories such as horseradish have an opportunity to increase consumption as well by offering recipes and tying into the increasing trend of hot and spicier foods. Non-foods, such as wax paper and paper lunch bags, can also increase their sales by suggesting additional uses and through secondary displays. Most shoppers already acknowledge ripening fruit at home in a brown paper bag, but how many produce departments display packages of paper bags?

    Integrated merchandising is an effective tool to boost sales when the cross-merchandising makes sense and clearly shows a benefit for the customer. Driving usage of some categories, such as Dishwasher Rinsing Aids, is constrained by the appliances in which they are used. Others, such as Oven Cleaners, have the opportunity to expand usage via marketing, promoting benefits such as "better tasting foods," for example, instead of just "easy to use."

    2005 Food Trends...Better Nutrition and Better Flavor
    Each fall, the SupermarketGuru.com Consumer Panel Survey measures current eating habits against those that the panel expects to consume in the coming year. This year's survey found that the "Nutritional Value" and "Price" of the main ingredient for dinner were tied as the most important factor in selecting a food product, indicating to us that with the release of the new Recommended Daily Allowances (and the substantial marketing efforts that are expected to drive shoppers to read the Nutritional Facts labels) the major food trend in 2005 will be all about healthy eating. Those retailers and brands which enjoy a value positioning, and combine that with products that have a strong nutritional benefit, are clearly in a strong position.










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    Italian food continues to top our list of the cuisines consumed most often by our panel, as it did in our 2003 survey, with Mexican losing ground and moving to the number three position, being displaced by "Low Fat," which ranked fourth in 2003. Low Carb has also decreased dramatically: in the 2003 survey, 41 percent planned on consuming more Low Carb foods in the coming year, while the current survey reports just 32 percent intend to do so, mirroring the waning new product introductions and sales decreases in the category.

    COUNTRY-TO-COUNTRY: A Look at the Fastest Growing Categories in the Indian Grocery Channel
    American supermarkets are stuffed with 40,000+ SKUs, including foods from around the globe. A walk through food stores in other parts of the world offers a very different experience, but for how long? As US, EU and Latin American brands continue their globalization we can expect to see a shift in the type of foods consumed.

    For the 52 weeks ending July 31, 2004 we see that Shelf Stable Meal Starters leads the top ten growth categories in the US, no doubt underscoring the American desire for convenience, followed by nuts (a quick on-the-run protein source) and bottled water (a result of the bottled water price wars).










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    In India, growth categories include Breakfast Cereals, Eclairs and Ketchup/Sauces underscoring the globalization of foods. As this country continues its meteoric growth as the outsourcing capital for the back room functions for many US businesses, we can expect to see a greater impact from US brands as more American managers make India their home. Expect to see a strong impact from more convenient and Western packaging technologies on all categories as well.



    ACNielsen estimates that in 2003, over $2.4 billion was spent across all retail channels in the Shortening/Oil category, which includes salad & cooking oil, cooking sprays, olive oil, shortening, and lard. The following slides indicate the percentage of households who buy each type of shortening/oil, as well as a sampling of higher indexing household types who buy products in the overall shortening/oils category, and channel share of category dollar sales.



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