BLOGS ARE IMPORTANT

Word-of-mouth has long been considered one of a supermarket's most valued assets. The butcher who takes the time to explain how to prepare a certain cut of meat perfectly and the baker who always has a warm cookie ready for the after school treat, have been effective ways to get customers to tell their friends just how great service a particular supermarket offers.

Over the past 50 years, we've seen an enormous evolution of consumer power. What started out as backyard discussions over clotheslines where our mothers would discuss their opinions about retailers and products, evolved into 24 hour toll-free consumer hotlines, full-time consumer affairs staffs, letters to the editor and at times, even protests and boycotts.

Consumers want to be heard. They want to actively communicate their thoughts and preferences, as well as expose dishonest practices, false claims and bad service.

Twenty years ago food shopping was different. Most consumers were satisfied if their store offered a wide selection of products, had weekly specials and the floors were clean.

Since then we have changed the way we work, how we play, how we get our entertainment...and how we shop. Much of that change has to do with computerization and the Internet. A vast majority of shoppers today are using the Internet to research product claims before they buy.

The consumer is now in control - think "command center." Our cell phones and Blackberry devices have us wired in real-time to be able to find the latest information on just about any product. The DoCoMo phone in Japan is enabling shoppers to compare real-time pricing between stores, discuss product features with each other and scan the product, which is then charged on their phone bill.

The challenge is to use the technology and relationships with shoppers to build your brand.

Enter the "blog."

Blogs are now commonplace, and with high speed Web access available on 40 million lines, and to over a third of people on the Internet, retailers and brands are using blogs to create buzz (the new terminology for word-of-mouth) and measure just how new store formats and promotions are being accepted by their customers.

A blog is created about every 2.2 seconds. In simple terms, a blog is a web site, where people (and smart retailers and CPG brands) write on an ongoing basis. The latest postings show up at the top, so your web visitors can read what's new first. Then they can add their own comments directly on the blog, or email you.

Since blogging first came on the scene, blogs have reshaped the web, impacted politics (think Matt Drudge), shaken up journalism (think Matt Drudge), and enabled at last count about 35 million people to have their voices heard.

When consumers notice that their voice is being heard, they respond with a stronger tie to the retailer (or brand) and become more involved. They blog more, shop more, buy more...and spread the word more.

Blogs offer a unique opportunity to reach out to shoppers and build relationships and sales by doing the exact same thing that the corner store shopkeeper did 100 years ago - listening to what the shopper has to say.

Ice Cream: A Category in Flux
Ready-To-Eat Cereals Slim Down
The Complexities Of Wine Marketing
Dark Chocolate's Health Story is Good for Sales
Hurricane Season 2005: Redux
Beyond Category Management to Trip Management (Part 2)
Americans Lead Global List For Being Cash-Poor
Is the Future Supermarket Gender Designed?
Channel Watch


The 14th Annual Trade Promotion Practices and Emerging Issues Study is now available from ACNielsen. To purchase a copy, click here.
ACNielsen's latest annual Consumer & Market Trends Report is now available. For information and to order click here.

The FMI U.S. Grocery Store Shopper Trends 2005 is available. Click here for more details.
ACNielsen's latest Private Label Trends Report is now available. For information, click here.

The FMI/Rodale Shopping for Health survey of consumers is available.
Click here
for more details.



July 11, 2005


Boom: The Key Demographic

It starts happening early next year and once again the demographic profile of the United States will change like never before.

The event is the first of the Baby Boom generation turning 60, marking yet another landmark in aging of the generation that has left an indelible mark and level of change on every part of American life since the end of WWII.

Boomers have been a never ending source of change from the days they first swelled the population to the days of protest and "do your own thing," which probably was the first sign of the world of niche marketing to come. Given the diversity of needs and tastes of Boomers, it's hard to draw a single picture of this generation of 76 million adults. The size and spending power of the Boom generation make them a priority for any marketer.

At 28 percent of the population, Boomers make up the largest population of working adults in the nation and have the highest incomes, which means their overall spending power is unmatched. According to FMI's U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends 2005, Boomers are easily the biggest spenders on food per household, even though Generation X households are more likely to be larger in size due to a greater presence of children.

Currently, 26 percent of Boomers have children in their household (compared to 50 percent of Gen X), yet Boomers spend $98.40 on average in supermarkets each week - Gen X households spend $1 less. Similarly, Boomers spend more ($75.10) in their primary store than any other shopper group. Boomers are loyal to supermarkets overall and are less likely than other shoppers to regularly frequent a supercenter.

Of course, not all Boomers share any single lifestyle. There are Boomers who are empty nesters and grandparents, while others (sometimes of the same age) are new or current parents, so targeted marketing is essential.

When it comes to selecting a supermarket, Boomers look for high quality perishables, a clean store and accurate shelf tags. Boomers are more likely than most to stock up on bargains and deviate from their shopping list. They solve their own problems, seeking information and educational resources when trying to attack problems like improving their nutritional habits.

Some 75% believe their diets could be healthier, a much more critical assessment than nearly all other shopper groups. Despite this, a smaller percentage of Boomers are on diets to lose weight than are the younger shoppers from Generations X or Y. (Aging does have its price however. Far more Boomers are on diets for medical reasons than the younger groups.)

Trends offers a wealth of statistics on Boomers and other demographic groups that in today's diverse and competitive marketplace are nothing short of essential.

Click here for more information on Trends.

 

Putting the Consumer Into Category Management

Category management is a time-tested driver of sales and profits. But now's the time to implement a more consumer-centric approach that identifies and targets underserved consumer groups and drives incremental profits for retailers and their CPG partners.

Recent research by ACNielsen indicates that traditional category management tools, though still important, are being used less often. One reason may be the limitations of the "classic" eight-step product-centric process, which enables retailers to better manage sales, but falls short in its ability to target and track the actions of specific consumer segments. The result is that we still don't understand why some categories and some stores consistently under perform.

This knowledge gap is ending. A plethora of new data has unveiled the diversity of consumer preferences. And a new consumer-centric category management process developed by Spectra Marketing, a sister company of ACNielsen, is dramatically enhancing the return on investment for new category strategies.

The new process is far more efficient than the original category management process because it's designed to eliminate rework. Users also have the ability to truly tailor marketing and merchandising to individual consumer segments and replace the traditional "one-size-fits-all" approach.

What sets the Spectra approach apart is Consumer Demand-Based Clustering. Utilizing Spectra's proprietary consumer segmentation approach, Demand Clustering identifies and locates unique consumer segments and then groups stores based on a category's or brand's future sales potential among those consumer segments. It then identifies and weights the demographic attributes - income, education and lifestyles - that most drive purchasing behavior for each.

Simply put, rather than just finding out how well a product or brand is performing, this process reveals how well they should perform in particular stores. Then, retailers and manufacturers can develop a marketing plan for a cluster of stores with similar consumer demand landscapes rather than an ineffective chain-wide plan or cost-prohibitive individual plans for individual stores.

Whether this strategy results in a reallocation of space in different categories or revamping media strategies to reach specific consumer groups, it is clear that a consumer-centric approach delivers a better value proposition to consumers and a stronger bottom line for retailers and manufacturers. It is a process that leads to a new familiarity with local consumers, and the discovery of the overlooked and underserved who would very much like to buy more!

For more information about Spectra's Consumer-Centric Category Management process, contact steve_kent@spectramarketing.com.


Ice Cream: A Category in Flux
The trend towards healthier eating by American consumers is having an effect on virtually all products - even in the traditionally self-indulgent categories. Case in point: ice cream.

Overall, ice cream sales have been declining for the past couple of years. According to ACNielsen Strategic Planner data, category volume has dropped from a high of 4.68 billion pounds during the 52-week period ending May 17, 2003 to 4.37 billion pounds in the 52-week period ending May 14, 2005. (ACNielsen Strategic Planner monitors sales in the food, drug and mass channels, excluding Wal-Mart.)

Those figures represent a 6.7% decline in ice cream volume over the past two years.

Still, ice cream is a tremendously popular treat. It can be found in more U.S. households than toothpaste (86% to 85%), according to the ACNielsen Homescan consumer panel data. Wise manufacturers, intent on hanging on to all of those category-buying households, are finding new ways to make ice cream healthier while maintaining its satisfying taste. Clearly, some are succeeding.

According to ACNielsen LabelTrends(TM), consumption of ice cream identified as "low fat" on their labels increased by 8.9% in the 52-week period ending May 14, 2005, from 450.4 million pounds to 490.6 million. Similar increases could be found with products labeled "sugar free" (+10.7%) and "reduced calorie" (+15.3%). Of all the "healthier alternative" segments in the ice cream category, the hottest in terms of percentage growth was "less sugar," which enjoyed more than a sevenfold increase, from 374,679 to over 3 million pounds.


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One of the most interesting developments over the past year was the "slow churning" innovation brought to market by Dreyer's. According to ACNielsen data provided by Dreyer's, unit sales of its light ice cream increased by 68% in 2004 due to the availability of the slow-churned brands. This increased Dreyer's market share of the premium light ice cream category from one-third to one-half of all units sold.

The proprietary process, called "slow churning," provides the taste of full-fat ice cream in a light product. This taste and texture comes from kneading fat molecules at a colder temperature. The slow churn stretches and distributes the molecules widely so the ice cream tastes like it contains more butterfat. There are no artificial sweeteners or fat substitutes involved in the process, and the resulting product has half the fat and a third of the calories.

However, there's a limit in how far manufacturers can go in reducing unhealthy ingredients while still maintaining the flavor consumers crave. ACNielsen LabelTrends(TM) reports that "fat free" ice cream volume fell from 79.7 million pounds for the 52 weeks ending May 19, 2001, to 46.3 million for the 52 weeks ending May 14, 2005 - a hefty 41.9% decline.

Ready-To-Eat Cereals Slim Down
Reduced-sugar versions of several major brands of ready-to-eat (RTE) breakfast cereal marketed to kids are selling briskly at a time when more parents are worried about childhood obesity. Kellogg's Frosted Flakes, for example, now has one-third less sugar. General Mills reduced sugar by 75% in Cocoa Puffs and Trix by adding Splenda sweetener. Other suddenly-svelte brands include Post's Fruity Pebbles and Kellogg's Froot Loops.

Have makers of RTE cereal made the most important meal of the day healthier? While there is some debate over that notion, there's no question about the effect on sales of these products launched in 2004. According to ACNielsen Label Trends, dollar sales of RTE cereal with "less sugar" claims in the food/drug/mass merchandiser channels (excluding Wal-Mart) shot up a resounding 62 percent to $138 million for the 52-week period ending April 16, 2005. These figures contrast sharply with the overall RTE cereal category which declined 1.6 percent, compared to the previous 52-week period.


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Meanwhile, these reduced-sugar cereals apparently weren't immune to the sales roller coaster many "good-for-you" products ride in the fourth and first quarters of a year. There was a 12.4 percent sales decline for reduced-sugar cereals in the fourth quarter of 2004 compared to the previous quarter, followed by a healthy 46 percent bounce in the first quarter of 2005. This ebb and flow in sales is part of a similar pattern experienced by other "good-for-you" products including all RTE cereals.

Speculation is that consumers lose their focus on healthful eating during holiday time, then toughen up in the first quarter with New Year's resolutions to eat better (and presumably buy better for their children).

Reduced-sugar cereals come at a good time. Evidence is mounting over the connection between consuming sugars (refined carbohydrates) and such ills as obesity, diabetes and even cancer. An estimated 16% of children and adolescents ages 6-19 are overweight, according to a 2002 report from CDC, which says that 151,000 people under 18 years of age have diabetes. Sugar, high fructose corn syrup and corn syrup are leading ingredients in the most popular breakfast cereals pitched to kids.

Ironically, reduced-sugar cereals have also generated their share of skepticism among some health professionals. The new brands may have less sugar than the originals, but the calories and the amount of refined carbohydrates are virtually the same. Retailers display the new brands on the shelf next to the full-sugar varieties, and the price is the same. Expect label-reading shoppers to spend even more time comparing.

The Complexities Of Wine Marketing
Are American consumers looking for cheap wines? Or are they developing more sophisticated palates that can appreciate pricier and more complex wines?

Sales data suggests that the latter may be true. ACNielsen has released information showing that the best selling wines in the US are the ones selling for more than $11, with this segment seeing an 11 percent increase in dollar sales in the 52 weeks ending 5/7/05 in the combined food/drug/liquor store channel. Wines costing between $7 and $11 are up 6 percent in sales, while under $7 wines are up just 4 percent.

The study also suggests that Americans are drinking more imported wines, especially from South Africa, New Zealand, and Australia; imports tend to cost more.

This change can be attributed to better marketing efforts by wine producers, who have found that by making their products more accessible to consumers they can generate greater sales; it also reflects a greater health consciousness on the part of the public, since moderate wine consumption has been identified by many medical experts (and well publicized) as part of a healthful diet.

Americans may simply be trading up - and the wine producers now harvesting the benefits may be able to thank the companies that specialized in the low-priced wines that became all the rage over the past few years. Chief among these companies was the Charles Shaw Winery and its Bronco Wine Co., which created the enormously successful "Two-Buck Chuck," which sells for $1.99 at Trader Joe's in California ($2.99 elsewhere) and fostered numerous copycat versions.

There is an irony to this, since mainstream wine interests in California went to court to prevent Bronco from using the word "Napa" on wine bottles that did not contain grapes grown in the Napa Valley; the latest offering from the folks that brought us "Two-Buck Chuck" is now called Napa Creek, and will sell for $3.99 a bottle.

Dark Chocolate's Health Story is Good for Sales
More consumers are learning about the health benefits of eating dark chocolate. Retailers and manufacturers are turning that awareness into increased sales.

According to ACNielsen Strategic Planner, dollar sales for dark chocolate in the food/drug/mass merchandiser channels (excluding Wal-Mart) have risen steadily for the last two years. In the 52-week period ending May 14, 2005, the $294 million in sales of dark chocolate represented a 12.1 percent increase. In the 52-week period before that, sales of $262 million increased 7.7 percent (the data excludes dietetic chocolate).

Sales of dark chocolate today are only a small part of the overall chocolate business, but may well be its future. For the 52-week period ending May 14, 2005, the entire chocolate category posted sales of $4.5 billion (a 1.2 percent increase). The biggest subcategory is milk chocolate with $3.6 billion.


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Several studies appearing in such scientific publications as Nature and the Journal of the American Medical Association have outlined the health benefits of dark chocolate -- not milk chocolate, white chocolate, or dark chocolate eaten with milk. Every antioxidant food has an ORAC, or "Oxygen Radical Absorbance Capacity," that rates the food's ability to negate free radicals that can damage the heart. Dark chocolate has an ORAC of 13,120 - almost twice as much as milk chocolate. Meanwhile, the ORACs of many fruits and vegetables pale in comparison: blueberries (2,400), brussel sprouts (998), red grapes (739), and eggplant (390). Although when consumers go beyond ORAC and compare the entire nutritional facts, a 1 oz. piece of dark chocolate has 9 grams of fat and 149 calories as compared to just 0.1 grams of fat and 17 calories in 1 oz. of blueberries.

The increase in sales of dark chocolate likely comes from purchases by well-informed consumers who want to be as healthy as they can, and will likely increase as baby boomers age.

Brands are listing the percent of cocoa content of their chocolates, and Mars has developed a proprietary process called Cocoapro, which preserves polyphenols, one of chocolate's beneficial chemicals.

Expect the industry to be even more proactive in marketing. Manufacturers can advertise the link between eating dark chocolate and better health, and flag health benefits on packages. Meanwhile, retailers may well find that in-store samplings of dark chocolate may move sales upward at the same time as making many shoppers happy.

Hurricane Season 2005: Redux
In August and September 2004, four hurricanes hit the southeast US with Florida being the hardest-hit state. As we approach hurricane season again (at least five are predicted), it's time for retailers to prepare their stores and assortments for a worst-case scenario - and hope that doesn't happen.

A close look at the impact of one hurricane provides clues about what products to focus on. Hurricane Charley hit southwest Florida on Friday, August 13th, 2004. ACNielsen's Tampa market, situated north of where Charley struck, provides a look at the impact on supermarket sales before and after the storm.

ACNielsen statistics cover the two-week period before and after the storm with the previous four weeks. The spike in post-storm sales was larger than the week before the storm. In Tampa, sales rose 10% for the week ending August 14 vs. a 26% increase for the week ending August 21.

Not surprisingly, battery/flashlights showed the strongest sales spike by far. That was followed by ice, candles/incense, and charcoal/logs/accessories. Rounding out the strongest categories were bottled water, film/cameras, canned seafood, and ready-to-serve prepared foods.


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The sales data showed that consumers didn't buy these necessities before the storm. Retailers in areas impacted by hurricanes should encourage shoppers to stock up before this year's hurricane season begins. Retailers can work with their vendor partners to create emergency kits for sale in supermarkets.

Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan also damaged Florida crops and led to price hikes in the second half of 2004. The produce affected included tomatoes (Florida produces more than 90% of the fresh tomatoes consumed in the US between October and May), grapefruit, peppers, blueberries, cucumbers, and yellow squash. Surprisingly, the hurricanes didn't affect the price of fresh oranges since the majority of oranges grown for fresh consumption come from California and the Southwest. While orange groves were struck in the southwestern part of Florida, the damage didn't lead to hikes in the price of orange juice. There were major inventories of both domestic and imported frozen and chilled orange juice that offset the decline in production.

Beyond Category Management to Trip Management (Part 2)
In last month's issue of F3 we talked about work that we are doing to understand how US consumers shop, comparing small versus large trips and analyzing the role that categories, lifestyles, shopper attitudes, and time pressures can play in driving those trips. We pointed out that consumer shopping trip patterns can vary greatly by retail channel and retailer. This month, we want to share some of our learning around how we have been able to mine Homescan Consumer Panel shopping trips to define specific trip clusters based on the size and composition of trips.

We developed a model to identify consumer need states in the form of naturally occurring trip clusters across four trip types (immediate, fill-in, routine and stock-up) based on the composition of categories in shopping baskets. The model examined over 7 million annual shopping trips and we classified trip clusters that ranged from your basic "milk run" to party trips and healthcare trips. Our premise is that understanding the relationship between "trip type" need states and choice of retailer can help manufacturers and retailers collaborate in the areas of:

  • Assortment mix
  • Category accessibility and adjacencies
  • Store format and layout
  • Promotion planning and promotion partners (e.g., which categories should be in circulars and which categories should be promoted together?)

    Before we examine some of the trip clusters that we identified, let's take a quick look at the importance that convenience plays in today's world. For the vast majority of shopping trips, consumers are too busy to spend much time shopping as 70% of all-outlet trips are small or immediate need trips. Grocery stores compete for these trips with Dollar Stores, Drugstores and C-stores, but larger formats (Club Stores and Supercenters) compete for these trips too.


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    Within immediate trips, we classified eleven trip clusters or need states. Classifications were made based on the dominance of a particular category or group of categories within these small shopping trips. As noted in the next slide, categories beyond food and beverage drive immediate trips. Non-UPC coded product purchases (e.g., random weight produce, meat & seafood, prescription drugs, etc.) represent almost half of the small trips. Health & beauty care trips, milk run trips and bread run trips represented the next largest trip clusters. This capability will then allow us to examine how well retailers are capturing these shopping trips and understand where they may be losing trips to competitive retailers.


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    Finally, this capability enables us to understand the categories that are likely to be included on specific need state trips. In the case of the basic milk run, other dairy products and breakfast foods are more likely to be purchased.


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    Knowing these facts, what can retailers do to drive even stronger sales of complementary categories? For example, should retailers look to do periodic or permanent displays of cereal brands within the dairy section? How about adding signage in the dairy aisle listing this week's featured cereal or frozen breakfast brands? If Grocery retailers find that they are losing milk run trips to more convenient retail formats (i.e., Drug and Convenience/Gas), should they consider moving a refrigerator case closer to the front of their stores?

    For further information or to arrange a comprehensive presentation on consumer shopping patterns, please contact Todd Hale at thale@acnielsen.com or 859-905-4615.

  • Americans Lead Global List For Being Cash-Poor
    The United States has the highest percentage of citizens in the world who are strapped for cash, with 28 percent of Americans surveyed saying that they have no spare cash after they've paid their basic living expenses.

    While the percentage of Americans claiming to have no spare cash remained the same as it was last fall, there are some noteworthy changes. Thirty-seven percent of Americans surveyed said that they use spare cash to pay off debts, credit cards and loans - up 4 percent from last fall. And, there were decreases in the percentage of respondents who said they use spare cash for clothing, out-of-home entertainment, and new technology.

    ACNielsen chief marketing and client service officer Tom Markert said, "On a daily basis, Americans are exposed to two competing messages: 'A strong economy is dependent on strong consumer spending;' and 'Your consumer debt levels are too high.' Historically, the first message has driven consumer behavior more than the second one. Lately, it seems, the second message is starting to get some traction."

    The survey, conducted by ACNielsen in 38 markets around the world, also found that almost one-third of Americans list the economy as their biggest concern over the next six months, compared to job security (15 percent), health (15 percent), terrorism (9 percent) and war (7 percent).

    Of other countries around the world, Portugal has 24 percent of its citizens with no spare cash, followed by Brazil (23 percent), Chile (21 percent), Korea (19 percent), Canada (19 percent), the Netherlands (19 percent), Denmark (18 percent), Sweden (17 percent), and Greece (17 percent). In far better shape are the citizens of Thailand, Russian and Indonesia, where just 5 percent of citizens have no spare cash, followed by China, India, Ireland, Mexico and Spain (at 7 percent each) and the Philippines and Taiwan (8 percent each).












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    Back in the US, of those who have extra money, just 7 percent save for their retirement, another 7 percent invest in stocks or mutual funds, and 23 percent put money into savings accounts - placing the US near the bottom of the global list in all these categories.

    Is the Future Supermarket Gender Designed?
    The challenge of appealing to one gender or the other is leading some retailers to create new store formats that, they hope, will attract new customers and generate new sales. And, while the action is outside of traditional CPG retailers, grocery store operators should take note.

    Both Sony and Nike are opening new formats that are expressly targeting women. Designed to look like boutiques rather than stores that appeal to hard-core techies and athletes, the lighting schemes, color palettes and dér packages are softer than might be expected from such places.

    Some Sony Style stores even have a concierge desk at the front door to help guide and advise shoppers, and the aisles are wide enough to accommodate baby carriages. Sony plans to open 15 Sony Style stores this year and 50 to 60 in total.

    Nike Women stores offer clothes and accessories for yoga, dancing and everyday wear, as well as the company's athletic gear for running, tennis and working out. The company began opening the units in California, where it opened six stores, and now is working its way east with stores in Chicago, Palm Springs, Fla., Atlanta, and White Plains, NY.

    The approach is not unique to Nike and Sony. Electronics retailer Best Buy recently opened a store called Studio D in Naperville, Illinois that is targeted to the woman consumer - it offers a wide variety of classes and lessons, and even a small spa designed to relax customers intimidated by the high tech equipment.

    The whole approach is to demystify the experience, and so far the retailers are reporting positive results. However, they will have to be careful about how far they push the "marketing to women" initiative; some women may actually be offended, feeling that they are being condescended to.

    There's also another possibility, though. It would be interesting if stores that traditionally appeal to women - say, supermarkets - actually began developing specific formats designed to appeal to men. In the case for grocery stores, a front end concierge might be just the thing, along with cooking lessons, beer nights, and ample sampling while Monday Night Football plays on big-screen televisions.


    The following slides use indices to compare retail channel performance vs. year ago on three metrics:

  • Dollar sales, number of shoppers, and shopping frequency

    An index of 100 means there has been no change

    Among the key findings...
  • Dollar stores continue to perform better versus other channels in the number of shoppers they're attracting
  • The Grocery channel continues to get out-performed by other channels in terms of growing sales
  • Drug Stores and Convenience/Gas show recent increases in shopping frequency


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    Facts, Figures and the Future is copyrighted and may not be reproduced without prior permission. For more information about the publication, please contact Phil Lempert at 323-860-3070 or via e-mail at PLempert@FactsFiguresFuture.com

     
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