Are We Ready for "Tele-Doc"?

Today, when we aren't feeling well, we call for a doctor's appointment (or worse - head to the local ER), see the nurse or physician, get tested, wait for the results, get treated through medication or surgery ... and wait to get well. It's a system that yearns for technology to improve its outcomes as well as to speed up the process: most telemedicine is instantaneous and in real-time compared to hours, or days later as in the past.

Seeing a physical doctor is a system that is flawed, too expensive, and frankly ... many would argue does not deliver high quality medical care.

We all want to be healthy. But if doctors can't give us daily check-ups, how do we know if our lifestyles and eating habits are keeping us healthy or not? Luckily, technology is making it easier for consumers to regularly monitor their own wellbeing. So even though we may read confusing studies on what foods we should eat (is a low-fat diet really better?), we now have the tools to find out if our diets and daily activities are helping us stay fit and healthy.

As consumers are becoming more proactive about their health and well-being, and taking more personal responsibility, there is little doubt that new technologies could eliminate a lot of guesswork and frustration and open up a huge opportunity for the traditional supermarket to become "the" health partner for many.

New technology is giving consumers greater control over their health and wellness. Supermarkets already have pharmacies that sell vitamins and DNA screening kits and offer blood pressure and cholesterol testing. Could this be the beginnings of a partnership that could deliver better health?

In the April 1924 edition of Radio News, there was a tongue-in-cheek article depicting the futuristic scenario where a radio user contacts a doctor through the use of, what else but a radio (which oddly looked just like a modern web friendly TV set - a full three years BEFORE the roll-out of television). Even earlier, Australians living in remote areas were using two-way radios to communicate with doctors. And before that, African villagers used smoke signals to warn others away from villages suffering diseases.

These days, techno-devices proliferate:

  • Smart toilets. In Japan there are toilets that collect urine samples and test for glucose, kidney disease and eventually cancer. Other toilets are now being developed that can notify your doctor whenever you have diarrhea
  • Self-diagnostic kits. Based on an individual's DNA and lifestyle profile, these applications are used to create personalized nutrition and health assessments. Some supermarket chains are selling these kits to forge better relationships with their customers. Lund Food Holdings, for instance, uses the results to create customized menus for their customers.
  • Telemedicine. Using telecommunications technology, doctors can monitor their patients in their homes. Medicare recently launched a study of 2,000 chronically-ill patients using a home-monitoring device called the Healthy Buddy. This appliance lets Medicare recipients respond remotely to their medical professionals' questions. In turn, with the touch of a button, the caregivers can offer healthcare solutions, identify common problems, and promote positive behavioral changes.
  • Global-positioning- system (GPS) watches. Apple Computer's cofounder Steve Wozniak's company, Wheels of Zeus, is working on GPS watches that will be able to monitor Alzheimer's patients and detect their heartbeat changes.
  • Patient-compliance devices. When modified with Bluetooth technology, Bang and Olufsen's devices can send data from a patient's blood pressure cuffs and pill boxes to a centralized care center. And Samsung plans to incorporate check-up devices in their 4G cell phone by 2009. With a data transmission speed of up to 100 megabits per second, the 4G phone is faster than the Internet and, when connected to a call center, will help supply a medical diagnosis based on transmitted health data from the mobile owner. A potential "portable doctor," the Samsung phone may eventually come equipped to check blood pressure, glucose levels, and much more.

    With such instantaneous and readily available access to our inner workings, we can only predict that the impending financial imploding of our Medicare and overall health system could be avoided.

    Dozens of studies have found that an annual physical exam does not prolong life, prevent disabilities or even detect disease. There is little doubt that with America's aging population coupled with a more techno-literate society which has less time (or patience) to sit in an overcrowded waiting room, these tools will allow consumers to take more responsibility and shift the center point of medicine away from the doctor's office.
  • Leveraging Technology to Understand Consumer Behavior: A "Perfect Storm" for the Industry
    Finding Key Sales Opportunities in the Natural Product Marketplace
    Holiday Online Retail Review
    Retailing on the edge
    White Tea Gaining Favor With U.S. Consumers
    Will a new shape + new mouth feel drive chewing gum sales?
    How are we doing?
    Consumers: Please, please me.
    U Michigan study: Grocers Publix, Supervalu do it best.

    In Diet Category, Consumers Equate "No Calorie" To "No Taste"
    Channel Watch


    XR23 will provide you with the latest information and analysis of technologies designed specifically for the retail environment. CLICK HERE for your FREE subscriptin.



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    U.S. Hispanics are emerging as the marketing opportunity of the 21st century. The fastest growing ethnic group in the United States, Latinos far outspend the average U.S. supermarket shopper. Learn more about U.S. Hispanic spending patterns, importance of products and services, coupon usage and influence of advertising. Click on the image above for more info.



    ACNielsen's new book on category management, published by John Wiley & Sons, is now available. To order, click on the image above. Or, for discounted orders of 10 or more, contact Jeff Gould at Wiley at jgould@wiley.com.



    FMI's Speaks is the annual state of the industry report for food retailers. Included are the latest trends in sales growth, general operations, supermarket company operating costs, employee turnover and advertising methods. Click on the image above for more info.



    This annual report provides you with a complete financial picture of the supermarket industry as well as the external business environment, including key ratios, balance sheet, income statement and statement of cash flow. The results are provided for the entire industry as well as by annual sales for more accurate benchmarking. Click on the image above for more info.



    This annual report presents five-year financial data on key pharmacy topics such as sales, margins, generic drugs and third-party plans. Click on the image above for more info.



    The FMI U.S. Grocery Store Shopper Trends 2005 is available. Click on the image above for more info.




    March 22, 2006


    An Overlooked Demographic

    Anyone following news of the recent $365 million lottery winners got a clear picture of just how much America's demographics are shifting. Although the winners came from the heart of the country, Lincoln, Nebraska, the winners hailed from a variety of countries and ethnicities.

    Demographic change continues to sweep the country, filtering into even the most traditional heartland areas.

    It should be easy then for most of us to identify the important emerging population groups. Hispanics, Asians and the growing number of shoppers adding natural and organic foods to their diet are clearly leading the list of those growing in number. And many of us could identify the new product and store trends geared towards making shopping a more pleasant experience for these groups.

    But throughout the country there is another group whose growing numbers bring a host of new realities to retailers and suppliers looking to meet their needs. And that also means new opportunities to build loyal customer relations.

    Today, there are about 100 million Americans aged 15 or older who are single or unmarried. To make that enormous number even more important, these Americans head up nearly 53 million households or nearly half of all American homes. In comparison, Hispanics - whose growing numbers are widely documented - make up a population one-third as large.

    Singles, or unmarrieds, can have an enormous impact on nearly every aspect of your company. The most obvious is the size of products that might have work wonderfully for the traditional family of four, which today is far less prevalent throughout the nation. Just as we no longer live in an Ozzie and Harriet society, neither should the products we sell serve only people in that demographic.

    Some of the statistics about this growing group of shoppers might startle you both in terms of their numbers and their reach across the country. And as with any demographic group, understanding the many types of shoppers that fall into this segment is essential to any hope of success.

    Consider the following:

  • Half the adult population in the state of New York is unmarried, the highest rate of any state. (Just so you know this isn't a purely American issue, the statistics are similar in the United Kingdom. In London alone, nearly 60% of the residents are single or unmarried, and similar statistics appear for many other major cities across the globe.)

  • 27% of adults in Gary, IN, Birmingham, AL, and the Florida cities of Clearwater, St. Petersburg and Hollywood are formerly married (widowed, separated or divorced), the highest rates of formerly married people in any cities of 100,000 residents or more. Clearly, this population shift is far from limited to major metropolitan areas like New York or Los Angeles. And this group includes people from all age groups, not just young adults.

  • More than half of all unmarrieds are women. Nearly two-thirds of unmarrieds have never been married. Nearly one-quarter of unmarrieds are divorced and 14% are widowed.

  • Nearly 30 million Americans live alone. These single person households account for slightly more than one-quarter of all households.

  • Some 12 million Americans are single parents, more than 80 percent of them are women.

    The numbers are large, which means the challenges and opportunities will be equally significant. Unlike an ethnic group, these shoppers won't come with special accents, languages or customs. But the opportunities are just as real for those who grab them.
  •  

    Leveraging Technology to Understand Consumer Behavior:
    A "Perfect Storm" for the Industry


    As some of you may know, this marks my second career at ACNielsen. And one question clients and employees frequently ask is: "What is one of the biggest changes you have noticed in our industry?"

    Perhaps not surprising, I think the biggest change here is the same one we are seeing everywhere: the enablement of technology. During the past five years, the terms "wi-fi", "blog", "time-shifting", "satellite radio" and "iPod" have become part of our lexicon. People are networked. News travels fast. Information does not stop. And data about most anything can be collected and reported.

    While the speed of life continues to increase - in business as in personal life - we are also entering a period of technological change. Many of the processes and systems that currently manage business today are being stretched in ways we could not have imagined, and while some of it has helped us keep pace, much of it is starting to impact our industry. Consider the following:

    Today, users of marketing and analytical information have become more technologically sophisticated than ever before. They have used available information and systems to dig deeper to find more answers. This has driven a need for more granularity in information. End users want unconstrained ad hoc access to information, with continually faster response times.

    Also, growing complexity in data query and analysis has driven a significant increase in demands on the side of the information provider. This impacts historical data as well as current information, since trends are critical to marketers.

    Third, there is an increased demand in how information needs to be delivered. Flexibility is key. Mobility is key. Clients need to get information whenever and wherever they may be. Bandwidth - the actual amount of time and space available for data to travel between points - is a major issue that often escapes the headlines, but it impacts the speed in which information is delivered.

    Together, these elements have combined to create a technological "Perfect Storm." And it is having a major impact on our industry today. With the flood of information available, it has become literally impossible to stay on top of everything. The complexity and volume of information combined with the speed and availability of technology together have outpaced the ability of end users to receive efficient, meaningful information - without excessive processes and manual effort to manage the information.

    Fortunately, the same elements that have helped bring on this storm of information overload can also help us weather and improve on the current state. At ACNielsen, we are in the midst of several major and significant technological changes that will keep us positioned as the industry leader in providing actionable information about consumers and the retail environment.

    Our history shows that this can be done. We were the first in the industry to deliver tracking information electronically over the Internet. We were first to deliver a working web-based portal for collaboration and information sharing. And we have begun to integrate information from our sister companies, such as Spectra, BASES and Market Decisions as well as integrating client information such as shipments and financial data.

    But the difficulty is in the details. For our clients to gain true insight, they don't need more information, they need the right amount of information at the right time, ready-made for decision-making. The granularity of the data is obviously critical - but it must be fit for action. (continued below)


    Leveraging Technology to Understand Consumer Behavior: A "Perfect Storm" for the Industry
    Real-time data is also critical. But just having the ability to access real-time data will not drive desired outcomes. Information must be collected, cleansed, prioritized and provided at the right time for manufacturers and retailers to drive an insight-based decision-making process.

    Our number-one priority is how we can help our clients solve their business issues and grow their top line. And during our eight decades of providing insightful information to our clients, we have the history to know that each client's issues are different. To weather this perfect storm of client needs, industry pressures and technological challenges, we will continue to offer clients the right-place, right-time measurement and analysis of marketplace dynamics, consumer attitudes and behavior.

    Over the next few months, you will be hearing more about some of these initiatives. I am excited about our future and I look forward to sharing it with you.

    John J. Lewis returned to ACNielsen in January from Knowledge Networks, where he was president and CEO. Knowledge Networks is a leader in the online marketing survey research space. From 1994 to 1999, Lewis served as EVP, Marketing for ACNielsen. He began his career in consumer packaged goods as one of the first employees of The NutraSweet Company.

    Finding Key Sales Opportunities in the Natural Product Marketplace
    Natural Product sales are up by 18 percent over 2004, continuing to outpace those of Conventional Products, which have increased by only two to three percent in overall supermarket sales. This is just more evidence of a long-term retail trend that shows no signs of slowing down.

    For many of you readers, the news that Natural Product sales are still booming is not new. However, drilling down into this growth statistic will show that there is much more to the story. By looking at sales performance at the channel, department and category level, you can determine exactly where the greatest sales and new product development opportunities lie. For example, Natural Product sales growth in Natural Supermarkets is just slightly outpacing the growth of these products' sales in the FDM channel, but their department and category performance differs considerably.

    Let's examine the Natural General Merchandise department, specifically Natural Household Cleaners & Supplies. This category is growing at 20 percent in the Natural channel and five percent in FDM channels, while the growth of Conventional Household Cleaners is stagnant at one percent. Sales of these eco-friendly products have been growing for quite a few years within the Natural channel, and serve as a good example of how the Natural industry has reached all product segments. Today these products account for 40 percent of Natural channel General Merchandise sales, where in FDM they only account for 20 percent. The category is clearly underdeveloped in FDM.


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    The Natural Body Care segment is growing at five times the rate of Conventional Body Care, and is only expected to increase in popularity. However while it is gaining distribution in all channels, Conventional Supermarkets have yet to devote shelf space that's comparable to grocery categories to Natural Body Care. This suggests a considerable sales opportunity for these retailers as well.


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    The sales potential for Natural Household Cleaners and Body Care in FDM is clear. Deeper analysis shows that several major product categories in the Grocery, Frozen, and Refrigerated departments are also ripe for growth through Natural Products.

    Consumer panel research has consistently found that Natural and Organic product consumers tend to increase their purchases year over year. If you're not monitoring Natural channel performance, it's likely you are missing out on trends that are driving sales growth across all retail channels. Those organizations that gain an early understanding of these trends have a greater chance of becoming brand leaders in emerging categories.


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    The Natural Product Opportunity Report
    SPINS, the leading information and service provider for the Natural Products Industry, has collaborated with ACNielsen to develop the Natural Product Opportunity Report - the first to demonstrate Natural Products' performance and share of retail at the category level. Sales and growth trends in the Conventional FDM channels are provided through a partnership with ACNielsen's Scantrack service. Development Indexes in the study demonstrate the biggest opportunity areas across categories, giving Natural manufacturers a view of the total retail picture, and Conventional manufacturers a sizing of Natural segments across categories.

    For more information about the Natural Product Opportunity Report, contact SPINS' Inside Sales at 415.957.4400.

    About SPINS
    San Francisco-based SPINS was founded over ten years ago as the first company to offer Natural Products sales data to the industry. Today, it is the premier provider of industry reporting and consulting services for this rapidly expanding sector. Since 1998, SPINS has partnered with ACNielsen to report on the sales of Natural Products in the Conventional retail channel. The SPINSscan Conventional service provides access to account-specific reporting on over 60 retail accounts, helping clients make targeted, and successful business decisions. Learn more at www.spins.com.

    Holiday Online Retail Review
    Despite initial fears of the impact of rising gas prices and heating costs on consumer holiday spending, holiday 2005 was a banner season for online retail. Smart marketing strategies paid off as apparel, books, toys and DVD's leapt off warehouse shelves. Online shopping peaked during the second week in December, with most shoppers reporting high levels of customer satisfaction. What were the main drivers of this growth, and more importantly, can this growth be sustained?

    During the 2005 holiday season, consumers spent $30.1 billion online (excluding travel), a 30 percent increase over the $23 billion spent in 2004. This healthy growth rate exceeded the 25 percent growth of the previous season, demonstrating that online retailers continue to attract new business. Online retailers relied heavily on promotions such as free shipping to entice potential buyers. Another significant driver of the strong increases in online sales was the popularity of gadgets such as the iPod and other mp3 players, low-priced PCs, and cell phones. As a result, the consumer electronics and computer hardware products categories were the big winners of the holiday season, reaching combined online sales of $9.6 billion, representing 32 percent of all online holiday sales, excluding travel. This represents an increase of 117 percent over 2004, where online sales in these combined categories reached $4.4 billion, making up only 19 percent of 2004's $23 billion.


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    Other top selling product categories during the holidays were apparel, books, toys & videogames, and DVD/video. Apparel, which is typically a big seller during the holiday season both online and offline, grew 42 percent over last year, capturing $5.3 billion in online sales, representing 18 percent of total online holiday sales. Books followed with almost $3 billion in online sales, increasing 66 percent from 2004.

    A typically strong holiday category, toys & videogames, experienced a nine percent decline from 2004 due to the lack of a must-have toy to drive demand, reaching only $2.3 billion in sales. DVD/video rounded out the top five product categories, with sales down 13 percent from the previous year, reaching $1.72 billion.


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    New this holiday season was the extended timeline of online purchases. In 2005, the online sales peak occurred during week seven (Dec. 10th through 16th), one week later than in previous years. Online sales were also strong during the week leading up to Dec 24th and 25th, highlighting consumer trust in on-time delivery. Online sales during these two final weeks reached $11.4 billion or 38 percent of total holiday sales. Some of this additional activity can be attributed to retailers' promotional activities such as free shipping upgrades and discounts to help push last minute online sales and keep shoppers out of the stores on Dec 24th, which fell on a Saturday. This extension of the online holiday season will have interesting implications for next year, particularly as retailers negotiate rates with shipping partners and seek to narrow the window between shipping deadlines and Dec 25th.


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    Overall satisfaction remained high during the holiday season as buyers encountered few problems with retailers' sites. In 2005, 64 percent of online shoppers were very or somewhat satisfied with their shopping experiences during the holidays, while only six percent were very or somewhat dissatisfied. While infrequent, the most common problems reported by online shoppers were product availability - 14 percent, excessive shipping charges - 14 percent, inability to locate product - 13 percent, and insufficient product information - nine percent.


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    Now that Internet use has reached a critical mass in the United States, some speculate that online retail will slow down. But if the 2005 holiday season is any indication, tenured Web users who are comfortable with the technology and trust online vendors will spend a growing portion of their shopping budget online. As more and more Web users become familiar with online shopping, their spending should only increase.

    The eSpending Report by Goldman Sachs, Nielsen//NetRatings and Harris Interactive is based on a weekly national survey of more than 1,000 adult consumers from among the Harris Interactive online panel of survey respondents who are randomly invited to participate in online surveys.

    Retailing on the edge
    While most U.S. Grocers continue to cut costs and reinvent themselves to compete with store count expansion and increased food and beverage focus from the likes of CVS, Target, Walgreens, Wal-Mart, Warehouse Clubs and Dollar Stores, etc., other Grocers are doing quite well by focusing on households who are "living on the edge" of mainstream shoppers. Two of the best examples of this are Aldi and Whole Foods.

    Aldi's offering is quite simple - limited assortment, no frills and low prices fueled by the fact that the majority of their assortment is Private Label and because they offer very little in the way of customer service. Aldi operates 5,000 stores in Europe, the U.S., and Australia. They operate 700 + stores in the U.S., and they have made claims that they will add 40 stores per year through 2010. On their web site you will see mention of two ways in which they save their shoppers money. First, they charge a 25 cent rental fee for shopping carts which is refunded once the cart is returned. Second, in lieu of passing on the cost of shopping bags in how they price the products on their store shelves, shoppers can bring their own bags or purchase plastic or paper bags on each shopping trip. When you have shoppers rank the importance of low prices versus wide assortment, low prices will be top of mind among top spending Aldi shoppers.

    Conversely, Whole Foods claims to be the "world's leading retailer of natural and organic foods with 181 stores in North America and the United Kingdom." Fresh meat, seafood, and produce are important ingredients in their offering. They also do an excellent job in the areas of fresh flowers, upscale wines, and prepared gourmet-foods. But make no mistake, health and well being is not the only way that they win consumers. Their assortment of desserts makes my mouth water just thinking about them, and the aromas from their prepared foods section has got to be a key factor in their success. Visit one of their stores in a trendy urban location and you will also see a shopper base that is atypical from those found in mainstream Grocery stores and one who is not bashful about paying a premium price.

    When we examine the demographics of shoppers in these two stores, the differences speak to the success that these two retailers are having as a result of their focus. While, Aldi's store sales are skewed to low and middle income households, they actually do reasonably well in driving sales among all income groups except those with the highest incomes. Whole Foods sales are very much skewed to people who can afford to shop their stores. Households with incomes of $70,000 or more account for just over half of their sales, indexing at a rate almost three times greater than expected (given the number of households with incomes in that range).


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    In terms of age of female head, Aldi appeals to both younger and older female household heads. Whole Foods has a younger shopper profile, but they also have a very strong skew to male-only households. Middle-aged singles and middle-aged couples are also important shoppers for Whole Foods.


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    Retailers like Byerly's, Lunds, Dorothy Lane Markets and Wegman's are other great examples of Grocers who have been living on the edge for a number of years. Safeway's roll-out of their high-end lifestyle Grocery stores is an excellent example of how mainstream Grocers can also operate on the edge in selective areas. And, the competitive frame for limited assortment/low price retailers is certainly not small. Save-A-Lot operates 1,100 + stores in the U.S.., Albertsons is in the field with their Super Saver format, and Big Lots also competes in this space. Whatever your space, it is important that you understand your shoppers and do the best that you can to deliver what is most important to them and their families.

    For further information or to arrange a comprehensive presentation on consumer shopping patterns, please contact Todd Hale at thale@acnielsen.com or 859-905-4615.

    White Tea Gaining Favor With U.S. Consumers
    Among the multitude of products making "good for you" claims that have flooded the marketplace, perhaps none are as accurate from a scientific perspective as white tea.

    While many food and beverage products banner themselves as "new age" offerings that fit nicely into today's health-conscious consumer's lifestyle, many of the packaged items contain only "trace" measures of the very ingredients they use to position themselves on the shelves or in the coolers. These include ginko biloba, taurine, ginseng, proline, and creatine, among many others. (Trace measures are so miniscule that even though the aforementioned ingredients do, in fact, have health-related attributes, the amount typically found added into the products is so small that their effects are not discernable.)

    But white tea is different. Just like the popular green tea (which has been noted for its antioxidant qualities, particularly among Asian cultures, dating back centuries), white tea is derived from the Camellia sinesis plant. However, unlike most other varieties (including traditional black tea and oolong tea), the leaves of white tea are harvested before they are fully opened. Indeed, the name "white tea" is derived from the fine white hair that covers the uppermost tender buds of the plant. For this reason, white tea is sometimes referred to as the "Rolls Royce" of the tea family.

    Like green tea, white tea undergoes very little processing. But while green tea has a noticeable grass-like flavor, and often requires sophisticated sweeteners to be acceptable to the American consumer's palate, white tea offers a natural light, sweet flavor. For best results, white tea, which contains less caffeine than most other varieties (15mg per serving as opposed to 40mg for black tea and 20mg for green tea), should be steeped just below the boiling point. White tea should be consumed in its natural state - that is, without adding sweetener or dairy products to the brew. Doing so has been likened to adding Coca-Cola to a single-malt whisky.

    But most importantly from a scientific perspective, studies have indicated that white tea offers even more cancer-fighting anti-oxidant agents than green tea. Tea consumers are apparently listening. According to ACNielsen data, while dollars generated by bagged tea in the combined food, drug and mass channels (excluding Wal-Mart data) have increased marginally over the past four years, dollar sales of white tea have jumped exponentially. The same trend holds true in supermarkets with $2 million or more in annual sales (excluding supercenters), where dollar sales of bagged white tea have increased by triple digits in three of the last four years.

    The increase in dollar sales of white tea vis-à-vis the entire category might easily be dismissed because white tea is more expensive than other varieties, were it not for consumption data, which mirrors dollar sales. According to ACNielsen, while equivalized unit (EQ) volume (using a 16-ounce basic unit) has declined in the overall bagged tea category in each of the last four years in the combined food, drug and mass channels (excluding Wal-Mart), EQ volume has increased by triple digits in three of the last four years. That same pattern holds true in supermarkets doing $2 million or more in annual sales (excluding supercenters). EQ volume is a far better indicator of actual consumption than dollar volume.












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    That, more than anything, should be opening the eyes of tea marketers and retailers alike. Makers of ready-to-drink (RTD) iced tea brands are taking note. Currently, Honest Tea, Revelution Tea, Inko's, Origins and Fuze are among the popular RTD teas that offer white tea varieties within their portfolios. RTD tea category pioneer Snapple is also active in the white tea segment.

    Will a new shape + new mouth feel drive chewing gum sales?
    In an effort to generate some new energy in the chewing gum category, Hershey Co. has introduced, with some aggressive marketing dollars, new adult gum in the shape of ice cubes.

    It is the first of several new versions of its IceBreakers product line with "instantly extra cold gum" that comes in sugar-free peppermint and spearmint flavors. The category itself shows mixed signals and certainly can use a little bit of juice.

    Bubble gum sales in 2005 were up just 3.8 percent over the year before to $138.7 million, but all of the growth in this category came from the full sugars varieties, which were up 11.2 percent to $111.8 million; sugar free bubble gum sales were down almost 19 percent to $26.8 million, which offset any growth elsewhere in the segment.

    The same sort of counter-balance exists in the chewing gum category. While overall chewing gum sales in 2005 were up five percent to $943.8 million, all of the growth comes from the 9.5 percent increase in sugar free chewing gum sales last year, to $730.6 million ... while regular chewing gum sales were down eight percent to $213.3 million.

    It's safe to assume that the oxymoron between categories is being driven by kids in bubble gum and adults, who are more concerned about tooth decay and calories (hence the increases in sugar-free), in regular chewing gum.

    Arnaud Gadaix, brand manager of Hershey's gum and mint brands, says that IceBreakers is targeted specifically at adults and young adults in the 18-34 age range and actually represents a kind of merging together of the gum and mint category. While there has been a lot of innovation in the mint category for this demographic, he said, "The sum category was pretty sluggish. There was stick gum and pellet gum, and that was about it. We saw this as a big opportunity to do something big, something new."

    Adults in this age group, Gadaix said, tend to use gum as a breath freshener, so the technological leap was to coat the cube-shaped gum with xyletol, a natural sweetener that makes the mouth feel very cold. "It's like a little frosting that gives the gum a crunch," he said.

    The bonus is that even though Hershey is not promoting this as a bubble gum, it actually allows people to grow bubbles - their hope is to appeal to teenagers as well.

    A multimillion-dollar ad campaign features Hilary and Haylie Duff, hoping for a major push with the younger set. However, it also is reaching back into television's past for its commercials, featuring 77-year-old sportscaster Keith Jackson as well as actor Joey Lawrence, best known from the decade-old TV series Blossom.

    How are we doing?
    Facts, Figures & the Future was born in October of 2002. After a near three and a half years of growth, we'd like to check in with our readers and find out how we are doing. Take a few miutes to take our quick poll, so we can see how F3 can benefit you the most. After all, we have you, our readers, to thank for a great three and a half years! We will be giving away a copy of ACNielsen's Consumer-Centric Category Management to ten random respondents! CLICK HERE to take our quick poll.

    Consumers: Please, please me.
    U Michigan study: Grocers Publix, Supervalu do it best.
    The nation's leading supermarket chains have a potentially big problem: they're not increasing their ability to satisfy customers, according to fourth-quarter 2005 data from the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI), issued by the University of Michigan. As the public rates them lower on being able to please - not only in 2005, but in five of the past eleven years - the door opens wider for alternative channels such as wholesale clubs, supercenters and specialty food retailers to purvey their daily staples.

    The good news for supermarkets, at least for now, is that the vast majority of operators in other trade classes that sell food are doing about the same: Supermarkets and specialty stores average a 74 percent customer satisfaction rating, discount and department stores 75 percent, and drug stores 76 percent. None are in a decided uptrend.

    How household consumers across the United States evaluate services from a variety of economic sectors, including supermarkets, is the basis of the fourth-quarter 2005, The Index, issued by the University of Michigan Ross School of Business in conjunction with the American Society for Quality and CFI Group, show that scores consistently correlate with sales growth and loyalty, and link directly to stock performance.

    "The ACSI's measure of satisfaction has historically led to repeat business and increased spending, and the new data [of the overall study] suggest that consumer spending will rebound," says Professor Claes Fornell, director of the University's National Quality Research Center.

    Among supermarkets, Publix at 81 percent and Supervalu at 77 percent stand out not only for their high ratings, but for their year-to-year consistencies. Whereas supermarkets overall are down from 76 percent in their baseline year of 1994, Publix remains virtually unmoved from its initial 82 percent score, and Supervalu is the same as its start of 77 percent.

    By contrast, Kroger has slid from a 78 percent baseline to 74 percent in the latest measured quarter; it dipped as low as 71 percent as recently as 2003, yet rebounded to 73 percent in 2004. Winn-Dixie went from 76 percent to 73 percent, having been as low as 71 percent in 1999 and 72 percent in 2004. Albertson's has vacillated the most of the major chains measured over the years; its 75 percent baseline performance rose to 77 percent one year later, and slid all the way to 69 percent in 2004 before rebounding to 71 percent in 2005. Safeway has also been erratic, beginning at 72 percent and rising to 76 percent as recently as 2002 before arriving at its current 71 percent rating.

    Notably, Wal-Mart had a high 80 percent customer satisfaction baseline in 1994 as a discount department store. However, when its separate measurement line as a supermarket debuted in 2004, it registered 70 percent, and it stayed there in 2005, trailing every other major supermarket chain measured. Meanwhile, its discount department store rating also slid to 72 percent. Clearly, size and price don't mean everything to the American consumer.

    A more impressive rival food seller is Costco, the wholesale club operator, at 79 percent, exactly where it began when its customer satisfaction level was first measured in 1999. By comparison, Sam's Club is at 76 percent.


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    In Diet Category, Consumers Equate "No Calorie" To "No Taste"
    There is no question that the food industry has responded to concerns about the nation's obesity crisis with an enormous number of product introductions and strategies designed to help consumers make intelligent, informed decisions. Over the next four months, Facts, Figures & The Future will look at a number of dietary categories, examining how shopper choices illustrate consumer priorities in areas such as carbohydrate count, glycemic index, fat content and, this month, calorie count.

    While media, governmental and cultural attention to the nation's expanding waistline would appear to be at an all-time high, sales figures collected by ACNielsen in the diet category suggest that Americans may be putting taste first and calorie count second.

    Indeed, when put side by side, it appears that "reduced calorie" is seeing far more growth than "no calorie" in a wide variety of product segments, implying that while consumers want to cut back on their caloric intake, they also want to make sure that what they are eating tastes good - so they are compromising with low calorie products.

    During the just completed calendar year, some of the strongest growth in the diet segment was seen in reduced calorie categories such as reduced calorie powdered drinks (+15.4 percent to $55.3 million in sales), reduced calorie refrigerated yogurt (+16.2 percent to $1 billion), reduced calorie shelf stable fruit drinks (+14.6 percent to $62 million), reduced calorie liquid tea (+58.2 percent to $38.4 million), reduced calorie non-refrigerated/non-shelf stable fruit drinks (+41.5 percent to $60.1 million), and reduced calorie canned fruit drinks (+34.4 percent to $2 million).












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    Not every reduced calorie category saw strong growth, however, but this seems to be on a product-by-product basis; in categories where calories are seen as adding taste, consumers seem to be willing to indulge themselves. Examples: reduced calorie margarine and spreads, which were up just 2.7 percent, and reduced calorie tortillas, which were down 16.4 percent in sales...almost certainly because they are generally about as tasty as a bicycle tire.

    And in some categories, where taste either doesn't matter or where the segment is well-entrenched, sales of no-calorie items remain strong - such as no-calorie liquid tea (+21.7 percent).

    The lesson to manufacturers seems to be clear. More often than not, taste will be the determining factor as consumers choose products that will help them lose weight, and these same shoppers are going to identify "no-calorie" products as lacking in taste.


    ACNielsen estimates that in 2005, over $2.2 billion was spent across all retail channels in the deodorant category which includes stick/solid, cologne type, aerosol, roll on, and remaining deodorants.

    The following slides indicate the percentage of households who buy each type of deodorant, a sampling of higher indexing household types who buy products in the overall deodorant category, and channel share of category dollar sales.



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    Facts, Figures and the Future is copyrighted and may not be reproduced without prior permission. For more information about the publication, please contact Phil Lempert at 323-860-3070 or via e-mail at PLempert@FactsFiguresFuture.com


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