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Are We Ready for "Tele-Doc"?
Today, when we aren't feeling well, we call for a doctor's
appointment (or worse - head to the local ER), see the nurse or
physician, get tested, wait for the results, get treated through
medication or surgery ... and wait to get well. It's a system that
yearns for technology to improve its outcomes as well as to speed up
the process: most telemedicine is instantaneous and in real-time
compared to hours, or days later as in the past.
Seeing a physical doctor is a system that is flawed, too
expensive, and frankly ... many would argue does not deliver high
quality medical care.
We all want to be healthy. But if doctors can't give us daily
check-ups, how do we know if our lifestyles and eating habits are
keeping us healthy or not? Luckily, technology is making it easier
for consumers to regularly monitor their own wellbeing. So even
though we may read confusing studies on what foods we should eat (is
a low-fat diet really better?), we now have the tools to find out if
our diets and daily activities are helping us stay fit and healthy.
As consumers are becoming more proactive about their health and
well-being, and taking more personal responsibility, there is little
doubt that new technologies could eliminate a lot of guesswork and
frustration and open up a huge opportunity for the traditional
supermarket to become "the" health partner for many.
New technology is giving consumers greater control over their
health and wellness. Supermarkets already have pharmacies that sell
vitamins and DNA screening kits and offer blood pressure and
cholesterol testing. Could this be the beginnings of a partnership
that could deliver better health?
In the April 1924 edition of Radio News, there was a
tongue-in-cheek article depicting the futuristic scenario where a
radio user contacts a doctor through the use of, what else but a
radio (which oddly looked just like a modern web friendly TV set - a
full three years BEFORE the roll-out of television). Even earlier,
Australians living in remote areas were using two-way radios to
communicate with doctors. And before that, African villagers used
smoke signals to warn others away from villages suffering diseases.
These days, techno-devices proliferate:
Smart toilets. In Japan there are toilets that
collect urine samples and test for glucose, kidney disease and
eventually cancer. Other toilets are now being developed that can
notify your doctor whenever you have diarrhea
Self-diagnostic kits. Based on an individual's DNA
and lifestyle profile, these applications are used to create
personalized nutrition and health assessments. Some supermarket
chains are selling these kits to forge better relationships with
their customers. Lund Food Holdings, for instance, uses the results
to create customized menus for their customers.
Telemedicine. Using telecommunications technology,
doctors can monitor their patients in their homes. Medicare recently
launched a study of 2,000 chronically-ill patients using a
home-monitoring device called the Healthy Buddy. This appliance lets
Medicare recipients respond remotely to their medical professionals'
questions. In turn, with the touch of a button, the caregivers can
offer healthcare solutions, identify common problems, and promote
positive behavioral changes.
Global-positioning- system (GPS) watches. Apple
Computer's cofounder Steve Wozniak's company, Wheels of Zeus, is
working on GPS watches that will be able to monitor Alzheimer's
patients and detect their heartbeat changes.
Patient-compliance devices. When modified with
Bluetooth technology, Bang and Olufsen's devices can send data from a
patient's blood pressure cuffs and pill boxes to a centralized care
center. And Samsung plans to incorporate check-up devices in their 4G
cell phone by 2009. With a data transmission speed of up to 100
megabits per second, the 4G phone is faster than the Internet and,
when connected to a call center, will help supply a medical diagnosis
based on transmitted health data from the mobile owner. A potential
"portable doctor," the Samsung phone may eventually come equipped to
check blood pressure, glucose levels, and much more.
With such instantaneous and readily available access to our inner
workings, we can only predict that the impending financial imploding
of our Medicare and overall health system could be avoided.
Dozens of studies have found that an annual physical exam does
not prolong life, prevent disabilities or even detect disease. There
is little doubt that with America's aging population coupled with a
more techno-literate society which has less time (or patience) to sit
in an overcrowded waiting room, these tools will allow consumers to
take more responsibility and shift the center point of medicine away
from the doctor's office.
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U.S. Hispanics are emerging as the marketing opportunity of the 21st
century. The fastest growing ethnic group in the United States,
Latinos far outspend the average U.S. supermarket shopper. Learn more
about U.S. Hispanic spending patterns, importance of products and
services, coupon usage and influence of advertising. Click on the
image above for more info.

ACNielsen's new book on category management, published by John Wiley
& Sons, is now available. To order, click on the image above. Or,
for discounted orders of 10 or more, contact Jeff Gould at Wiley at
jgould@wiley.com.

FMI's Speaks is the annual state of the industry report for food
retailers. Included are the latest trends in sales growth, general
operations, supermarket company operating costs, employee turnover
and advertising methods. Click on the image above for more
info.

This annual report provides you with a complete financial picture of
the supermarket industry as well as the external business
environment, including key ratios, balance sheet, income statement
and statement of cash flow. The results are provided for the entire
industry as well as by annual sales for more accurate benchmarking.
Click on the image above for more info.

This annual report presents five-year financial data on key pharmacy
topics such as sales, margins, generic drugs and third-party plans.
Click on the image above for more info.

The FMI U.S. Grocery Store Shopper Trends 2005 is available. Click on
the image above for more info.
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March 22, 2006
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An Overlooked Demographic
Anyone following news of the recent $365 million lottery winners
got a clear picture of just how much America's demographics are
shifting. Although the winners came from the heart of the country,
Lincoln, Nebraska, the winners hailed from a variety of countries and
ethnicities.
Demographic change continues to sweep the country, filtering into
even the most traditional heartland areas.
It should be easy then for most of us to identify the important
emerging population groups. Hispanics, Asians and the growing number
of shoppers adding natural and organic foods to their diet are
clearly leading the list of those growing in number. And many of us
could identify the new product and store trends geared towards making
shopping a more pleasant experience for these groups.
But throughout the country there is another group whose growing
numbers bring a host of new realities to retailers and suppliers
looking to meet their needs. And that also means new opportunities to
build loyal customer relations.
Today, there are about 100 million Americans aged 15 or older who
are single or unmarried. To make that enormous number even more
important, these Americans head up nearly 53 million households or
nearly half of all American homes. In comparison, Hispanics - whose
growing numbers are widely documented - make up a population
one-third as large.
Singles, or unmarrieds, can have an enormous impact on nearly
every aspect of your company. The most obvious is the size of
products that might have work wonderfully for the traditional family
of four, which today is far less prevalent throughout the nation.
Just as we no longer live in an Ozzie and Harriet society,
neither should the products we sell serve only people in that
demographic.
Some of the statistics about this growing group of shoppers might
startle you both in terms of their numbers and their reach across the
country. And as with any demographic group, understanding the many
types of shoppers that fall into this segment is essential to any
hope of success.
Consider the following:
Half the adult population in the state of New York is
unmarried, the highest rate of any state. (Just so you know this
isn't a purely American issue, the statistics are similar in the
United Kingdom. In London alone, nearly 60% of the residents are
single or unmarried, and similar statistics appear for many other
major cities across the globe.)
27% of adults in Gary, IN, Birmingham, AL, and the Florida
cities of Clearwater, St. Petersburg and Hollywood are formerly
married (widowed, separated or divorced), the highest rates of
formerly married people in any cities of 100,000 residents or more.
Clearly, this population shift is far from limited to major
metropolitan areas like New York or Los Angeles. And this group
includes people from all age groups, not just young adults.
More than half of all unmarrieds are women. Nearly two-thirds
of unmarrieds have never been married. Nearly one-quarter of
unmarrieds are divorced and 14% are widowed.
Nearly 30 million Americans live alone. These single person
households account for slightly more than one-quarter of all
households.
Some 12 million Americans are single parents, more than 80
percent of them are women.
The numbers are large, which means the challenges and
opportunities will be equally significant. Unlike an ethnic group,
these shoppers won't come with special accents, languages or customs.
But the opportunities are just as real for those who grab them.
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Leveraging Technology to Understand Consumer Behavior:
A "Perfect Storm" for the Industry
As some of you may know, this marks my second career at
ACNielsen. And one question clients and employees frequently ask is:
"What is one of the biggest changes you have noticed in our
industry?"
Perhaps not surprising, I think the biggest change here is the
same one we are seeing everywhere: the enablement of technology.
During the past five years, the terms "wi-fi", "blog",
"time-shifting", "satellite radio" and "iPod" have become part of our
lexicon. People are networked. News travels fast. Information does
not stop. And data about most anything can be collected and reported.
While the speed of life continues to increase - in business as in
personal life - we are also entering a period of technological
change. Many of the processes and systems that currently manage
business today are being stretched in ways we could not have
imagined, and while some of it has helped us keep pace, much of it is
starting to impact our industry. Consider the following:
Today, users of marketing and analytical information have become
more technologically sophisticated than ever before. They have used
available information and systems to dig deeper to find more answers.
This has driven a need for more granularity in information. End users
want unconstrained ad hoc access to information, with continually
faster response times.
Also, growing complexity in data query and analysis has driven a
significant increase in demands on the side of the information
provider. This impacts historical data as well as current
information, since trends are critical to marketers.
Third, there is an increased demand in how information needs to
be delivered. Flexibility is key. Mobility is key. Clients need to
get information whenever and wherever they may be. Bandwidth - the
actual amount of time and space available for data to travel between
points - is a major issue that often escapes the headlines, but it
impacts the speed in which information is delivered.
Together, these elements have combined to create a technological
"Perfect Storm." And it is having a major impact on our industry
today. With the flood of information available, it has become
literally impossible to stay on top of everything. The complexity and
volume of information combined with the speed and availability of
technology together have outpaced the ability of end users to receive
efficient, meaningful information - without excessive processes and
manual effort to manage the information.
Fortunately, the same elements that have helped bring on this
storm of information overload can also help us weather and improve on
the current state. At ACNielsen, we are in the midst of several major
and significant technological changes that will keep us positioned as
the industry leader in providing actionable information about
consumers and the retail environment.
Our history shows that this can be done. We were the first in the
industry to deliver tracking information electronically over the
Internet. We were first to deliver a working web-based portal for
collaboration and information sharing. And we have begun to integrate
information from our sister companies, such as Spectra, BASES and
Market Decisions as well as integrating client information such as
shipments and financial data.
But the difficulty is in the details. For our clients to gain
true insight, they don't need more information, they need the
right amount of information at the right time,
ready-made for decision-making. The granularity of the data is
obviously critical - but it must be fit for action. (continued
below)
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Leveraging Technology to Understand Consumer Behavior: A "Perfect Storm" for the Industry
Real-time data is also critical. But just having the ability to
access real-time data will not drive desired outcomes. Information
must be collected, cleansed, prioritized and provided at the right
time for manufacturers and retailers to drive an insight-based
decision-making process.
Our number-one priority is how we can help our clients solve
their business issues and grow their top line. And during our eight
decades of providing insightful information to our clients, we have
the history to know that each client's issues are different. To
weather this perfect storm of client needs, industry pressures and
technological challenges, we will continue to offer clients the
right-place, right-time measurement and analysis of
marketplace dynamics, consumer attitudes and behavior.
Over the next few months, you will be hearing more about some of
these initiatives. I am excited about our future and I look forward
to sharing it with you.
John J. Lewis returned to ACNielsen in January from Knowledge Networks, where he was president and CEO. Knowledge Networks is a leader in the online marketing survey research space. From 1994 to 1999, Lewis served as EVP, Marketing for ACNielsen. He began his career in consumer packaged goods as one of the first employees of The NutraSweet Company.
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Finding Key Sales Opportunities in the Natural Product Marketplace
Natural Product sales are up by 18 percent over 2004, continuing to
outpace those of Conventional Products, which have increased by only
two to three percent in overall supermarket sales. This is just more
evidence of a long-term retail trend that shows no signs of slowing
down.
For many of you readers, the news that Natural Product sales are
still booming is not new. However, drilling down into this growth
statistic will show that there is much more to the story. By looking
at sales performance at the channel, department and category level,
you can determine exactly where the greatest sales and new product
development opportunities lie. For example, Natural Product sales
growth in Natural Supermarkets is just slightly outpacing the growth
of these products' sales in the FDM channel, but their department and
category performance differs considerably.
Let's examine the Natural General Merchandise department,
specifically Natural Household Cleaners & Supplies. This category is
growing at 20 percent in the Natural channel and five percent in FDM
channels, while the growth of Conventional Household Cleaners is
stagnant at one percent. Sales of these eco-friendly products have
been growing for quite a few years within the Natural channel, and
serve as a good example of how the Natural industry has reached all
product segments. Today these products account for 40 percent of
Natural channel General Merchandise sales, where in FDM they only
account for 20 percent. The category is clearly underdeveloped in
FDM.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
The Natural Body Care segment is growing at five times the rate
of Conventional Body Care, and is only expected to increase in
popularity. However while it is gaining distribution in all channels,
Conventional Supermarkets have yet to devote shelf space that's
comparable to grocery categories to Natural Body Care. This suggests
a considerable sales opportunity for these retailers as well.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
The sales potential for Natural Household Cleaners and Body Care
in FDM is clear. Deeper analysis shows that several major product
categories in the Grocery, Frozen, and Refrigerated departments are
also ripe for growth through Natural Products.
Consumer panel research has consistently found that Natural and
Organic product consumers tend to increase their purchases year over
year. If you're not monitoring Natural channel performance, it's
likely you are missing out on trends that are driving sales growth
across all retail channels. Those organizations that gain an early
understanding of these trends have a greater chance of becoming brand
leaders in emerging categories.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
The Natural Product Opportunity Report
SPINS, the leading information and service provider for the
Natural Products Industry, has collaborated with ACNielsen to develop
the Natural Product Opportunity Report - the first to demonstrate
Natural Products' performance and share of retail at the category
level. Sales and growth trends in the Conventional FDM channels are
provided through a partnership with ACNielsen's Scantrack service.
Development Indexes in the study demonstrate the biggest opportunity
areas across categories, giving Natural manufacturers a view of the
total retail picture, and Conventional manufacturers a sizing of
Natural segments across categories.
For more information about the
Natural Product Opportunity Report, contact
SPINS' Inside Sales at
415.957.4400.
About SPINS
San Francisco-based SPINS was founded over ten years ago as the
first company to offer Natural Products sales data to the industry.
Today, it is the premier provider of industry reporting and
consulting services for this rapidly expanding sector. Since 1998,
SPINS has partnered with ACNielsen to report on the sales of Natural
Products in the Conventional retail channel. The
SPINSscan Conventional service provides access to
account-specific reporting on over 60 retail accounts, helping
clients make targeted, and successful business decisions. Learn more
at
www.spins.com.
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Holiday Online Retail Review
Despite initial fears of the impact of rising gas prices and heating
costs on consumer holiday spending, holiday 2005 was a banner season
for online retail. Smart marketing strategies paid off as apparel,
books, toys and DVD's leapt off warehouse shelves. Online shopping
peaked during the second week in December, with most shoppers
reporting high levels of customer satisfaction. What were the main
drivers of this growth, and more importantly, can this growth be
sustained?
During the 2005 holiday season, consumers spent $30.1 billion
online (excluding travel), a 30 percent increase over the $23 billion
spent in 2004. This healthy growth rate exceeded the 25 percent
growth of the previous season, demonstrating that online retailers
continue to attract new business. Online retailers relied heavily on
promotions such as free shipping to entice potential buyers. Another
significant driver of the strong increases in online sales was the
popularity of gadgets such as the iPod and other mp3 players,
low-priced PCs, and cell phones. As a result, the consumer
electronics and computer hardware products categories were the big
winners of the holiday season, reaching combined online sales of $9.6
billion, representing 32 percent of all online holiday sales,
excluding travel. This represents an increase of 117 percent over
2004, where online sales in these combined categories reached $4.4
billion, making up only 19 percent of 2004's $23 billion.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Other top selling product categories during the holidays were
apparel, books, toys & videogames, and DVD/video. Apparel, which is
typically a big seller during the holiday season both online and
offline, grew 42 percent over last year, capturing $5.3 billion in
online sales, representing 18 percent of total online holiday sales.
Books followed with almost $3 billion in online sales, increasing 66
percent from 2004.
A typically strong holiday category, toys & videogames,
experienced a nine percent decline from 2004 due to the lack of a
must-have toy to drive demand, reaching only $2.3 billion in sales.
DVD/video rounded out the top five product categories, with sales
down 13 percent from the previous year, reaching $1.72 billion.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
New this holiday season was the extended timeline of online
purchases. In 2005, the online sales peak occurred during week seven
(Dec. 10th through 16th), one week later than in previous years.
Online sales were also strong during the week leading up to Dec 24th
and 25th, highlighting consumer trust in on-time delivery. Online
sales during these two final weeks reached $11.4 billion or 38
percent of total holiday sales. Some of this additional activity can
be attributed to retailers' promotional activities such as free
shipping upgrades and discounts to help push last minute online sales
and keep shoppers out of the stores on Dec 24th, which fell on a
Saturday. This extension of the online holiday season will have
interesting implications for next year, particularly as retailers
negotiate rates with shipping partners and seek to narrow the window
between shipping deadlines and Dec 25th.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Overall satisfaction remained high during the holiday season as
buyers encountered few problems with retailers' sites. In 2005, 64
percent of online shoppers were very or somewhat satisfied with their
shopping experiences during the holidays, while only six percent were
very or somewhat dissatisfied. While infrequent, the most common
problems reported by online shoppers were product availability - 14
percent, excessive shipping charges - 14 percent, inability to locate
product - 13 percent, and insufficient product information - nine
percent.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Now that Internet use has reached a critical mass in the United
States, some speculate that online retail will slow down. But if the
2005 holiday season is any indication, tenured Web users who are
comfortable with the technology and trust online vendors will spend a
growing portion of their shopping budget online. As more and more Web
users become familiar with online shopping, their spending should
only increase.
The eSpending Report by Goldman Sachs, Nielsen//NetRatings and Harris Interactive is based on a weekly national survey of more than 1,000 adult consumers from among the Harris Interactive online panel of survey respondents who are randomly invited to participate in online surveys.
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Retailing on the edge
While most U.S. Grocers continue to cut costs and reinvent themselves
to compete with store count expansion and increased food and beverage
focus from the likes of CVS, Target, Walgreens, Wal-Mart, Warehouse
Clubs and Dollar Stores, etc., other Grocers are doing quite well by
focusing on households who are "living on the edge" of mainstream
shoppers. Two of the best examples of this are Aldi and Whole Foods.
Aldi's offering is quite simple - limited assortment, no frills
and low prices fueled by the fact that the majority of their
assortment is Private Label and because they offer very little in the
way of customer service. Aldi operates 5,000 stores in Europe, the
U.S., and Australia. They operate 700 + stores in the U.S., and they
have made claims that they will add 40 stores per year through 2010.
On their web site you will see mention of two ways in which they save
their shoppers money. First, they charge a 25 cent rental fee for
shopping carts which is refunded once the cart is returned. Second,
in lieu of passing on the cost of shopping bags in how they price the
products on their store shelves, shoppers can bring their own bags or
purchase plastic or paper bags on each shopping trip. When you have
shoppers rank the importance of low prices versus wide assortment,
low prices will be top of mind among top spending Aldi shoppers.
Conversely, Whole Foods claims to be the "world's leading
retailer of natural and organic foods with 181 stores in North
America and the United Kingdom." Fresh meat, seafood, and produce are
important ingredients in their offering. They also do an excellent
job in the areas of fresh flowers, upscale wines, and prepared
gourmet-foods. But make no mistake, health and well being is not the
only way that they win consumers. Their assortment of desserts makes
my mouth water just thinking about them, and the aromas from their
prepared foods section has got to be a key factor in their success.
Visit one of their stores in a trendy urban location and you will
also see a shopper base that is atypical from those found in
mainstream Grocery stores and one who is not bashful about paying a
premium price.
When we examine the demographics of shoppers in these two stores,
the differences speak to the success that these two retailers are
having as a result of their focus. While, Aldi's store sales are
skewed to low and middle income households, they actually do
reasonably well in driving sales among all income groups except those
with the highest incomes. Whole Foods sales are very much skewed to
people who can afford to shop their stores. Households with incomes
of $70,000 or more account for just over half of their sales,
indexing at a rate almost three times greater than expected (given
the number of households with incomes in that range).
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
In terms of age of female head, Aldi appeals to both younger and
older female household heads. Whole Foods has a younger shopper
profile, but they also have a very strong skew to male-only
households. Middle-aged singles and middle-aged couples are also
important shoppers for Whole Foods.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Retailers like Byerly's, Lunds, Dorothy Lane Markets and Wegman's
are other great examples of Grocers who have been living on the edge
for a number of years. Safeway's roll-out of their high-end lifestyle
Grocery stores is an excellent example of how mainstream Grocers can
also operate on the edge in selective areas. And, the competitive
frame for limited assortment/low price retailers is certainly not
small. Save-A-Lot operates 1,100 + stores in the U.S.., Albertsons is
in the field with their Super Saver format, and Big Lots also
competes in this space. Whatever your space, it is important that you
understand your shoppers and do the best that you can to deliver what
is most important to them and their families.
For further information or to arrange a comprehensive
presentation on consumer shopping patterns, please contact Todd Hale
at thale@acnielsen.com or
859-905-4615.
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White Tea Gaining Favor With U.S. Consumers
Among the multitude of products making "good for you" claims that
have flooded the marketplace, perhaps none are as accurate from a
scientific perspective as white tea.
While many food and beverage products banner themselves as "new
age" offerings that fit nicely into today's health-conscious
consumer's lifestyle, many of the packaged items contain only "trace"
measures of the very ingredients they use to position themselves on
the shelves or in the coolers. These include ginko biloba, taurine,
ginseng, proline, and creatine, among many others. (Trace measures
are so miniscule that even though the aforementioned ingredients do,
in fact, have health-related attributes, the amount typically found
added into the products is so small that their effects are not
discernable.)
But white tea is different. Just like the popular green tea
(which has been noted for its antioxidant qualities, particularly
among Asian cultures, dating back centuries), white tea is derived
from the Camellia sinesis plant. However, unlike most other
varieties (including traditional black tea and oolong tea), the
leaves of white tea are harvested before they are fully opened.
Indeed, the name "white tea" is derived from the fine white hair that
covers the uppermost tender buds of the plant. For this reason, white
tea is sometimes referred to as the "Rolls Royce" of the tea family.
Like green tea, white tea undergoes very little processing. But
while green tea has a noticeable grass-like flavor, and often
requires sophisticated sweeteners to be acceptable to the American
consumer's palate, white tea offers a natural light, sweet flavor.
For best results, white tea, which contains less caffeine than most
other varieties (15mg per serving as opposed to 40mg for black tea
and 20mg for green tea), should be steeped just below the boiling
point. White tea should be consumed in its natural state - that is,
without adding sweetener or dairy products to the brew. Doing so has
been likened to adding Coca-Cola to a single-malt whisky.
But most importantly from a scientific perspective, studies have
indicated that white tea offers even more cancer-fighting
anti-oxidant agents than green tea. Tea consumers are apparently
listening. According to ACNielsen data, while dollars generated by
bagged tea in the combined food, drug and mass channels (excluding
Wal-Mart data) have increased marginally over the past four years,
dollar sales of white tea have jumped exponentially. The same trend
holds true in supermarkets with $2 million or more in annual sales
(excluding supercenters), where dollar sales of bagged white tea have
increased by triple digits in three of the last four years.
The increase in dollar sales of white tea vis-à-vis the entire
category might easily be dismissed because white tea is more
expensive than other varieties, were it not for consumption data,
which mirrors dollar sales. According to ACNielsen, while equivalized
unit (EQ) volume (using a 16-ounce basic unit) has declined in the
overall bagged tea category in each of the last four years in the
combined food, drug and mass channels (excluding Wal-Mart), EQ volume
has increased by triple digits in three of the last four years. That
same pattern holds true in supermarkets doing $2 million or more in
annual sales (excluding supercenters). EQ volume is a far better
indicator of actual consumption than dollar volume.
Click on thumbnails to enlarge
Use this link if you've received the text version
for graph one (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Mar06Tea1.gif) and this
link for graph two (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Mar06Tea2.gif)
That, more than anything, should be opening the eyes of tea
marketers and retailers alike. Makers of ready-to-drink (RTD) iced
tea brands are taking note. Currently, Honest Tea, Revelution Tea,
Inko's, Origins and Fuze are among the popular RTD teas that offer
white tea varieties within their portfolios. RTD tea category pioneer
Snapple is also active in the white tea segment.
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Will a new shape + new mouth feel drive chewing gum sales?
In an effort to generate some new energy in the chewing gum category,
Hershey Co. has introduced, with some aggressive marketing dollars,
new adult gum in the shape of ice cubes.
It is the first of several new versions of its IceBreakers
product line with "instantly extra cold gum" that comes in sugar-free
peppermint and spearmint flavors. The category itself shows mixed
signals and certainly can use a little bit of juice.
Bubble gum sales in 2005 were up just 3.8 percent over the year
before to $138.7 million, but all of the growth in this category came
from the full sugars varieties, which were up 11.2 percent to $111.8
million; sugar free bubble gum sales were down almost 19 percent to
$26.8 million, which offset any growth elsewhere in the segment.
The same sort of counter-balance exists in the chewing gum
category. While overall chewing gum sales in 2005 were up five
percent to $943.8 million, all of the growth comes from the 9.5
percent increase in sugar free chewing gum sales last year, to $730.6
million ... while regular chewing gum sales were down eight percent
to $213.3 million.
It's safe to assume that the oxymoron between categories is being
driven by kids in bubble gum and adults, who are more concerned about
tooth decay and calories (hence the increases in sugar-free), in
regular chewing gum.
Arnaud Gadaix, brand manager of Hershey's gum and mint brands,
says that IceBreakers is targeted specifically at adults and young
adults in the 18-34 age range and actually represents a kind of
merging together of the gum and mint category. While there has been a
lot of innovation in the mint category for this demographic, he said,
"The sum category was pretty sluggish. There was stick gum and pellet
gum, and that was about it. We saw this as a big opportunity to do
something big, something new."
Adults in this age group, Gadaix said, tend to use gum as a
breath freshener, so the technological leap was to coat the
cube-shaped gum with xyletol, a natural sweetener that makes the
mouth feel very cold. "It's like a little frosting that gives the gum
a crunch," he said.
The bonus is that even though Hershey is not promoting this as a
bubble gum, it actually allows people to grow bubbles - their hope is
to appeal to teenagers as well.
A multimillion-dollar ad campaign features Hilary and Haylie
Duff, hoping for a major push with the younger set. However, it also
is reaching back into television's past for its commercials,
featuring 77-year-old sportscaster Keith Jackson as well as actor
Joey Lawrence, best known from the decade-old TV series
Blossom.
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How are we doing?
Facts, Figures & the Future was born in October of 2002.
After a near three and a half years of growth, we'd like to check in
with our readers and find out how we are doing. Take a few miutes to
take our quick poll, so we can see how F3 can benefit you the most.
After all, we have you, our readers, to thank for a great three and a
half years! We will be giving away a copy of ACNielsen's
Consumer-Centric Category Management
to ten random respondents!
CLICK HERE
to take our quick poll.
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Consumers: Please, please me. U Michigan study: Grocers Publix, Supervalu do it best.
The nation's leading supermarket chains have a potentially big
problem: they're not increasing their ability to satisfy customers,
according to fourth-quarter 2005 data from the American Customer
Satisfaction Index (ACSI), issued by the University of Michigan. As
the public rates them lower on being able to please - not only in
2005, but in five of the past eleven years - the door opens wider for
alternative channels such as wholesale clubs, supercenters and
specialty food retailers to purvey their daily staples.
The good news for supermarkets, at least for now, is that the
vast majority of operators in other trade classes that sell food are
doing about the same: Supermarkets and specialty stores average a 74
percent customer satisfaction rating, discount and department stores
75 percent, and drug stores 76 percent. None are in a decided uptrend.
How household consumers across the United States evaluate
services from a variety of economic sectors, including supermarkets,
is the basis of the fourth-quarter 2005, The Index, issued by the
University of Michigan Ross School of Business in conjunction with
the American Society for Quality and CFI Group, show that scores
consistently correlate with sales growth and loyalty, and link
directly to stock performance.
"The ACSI's measure of satisfaction has historically led to
repeat business and increased spending, and the new data [of the
overall study] suggest that consumer spending will rebound," says
Professor Claes Fornell, director of the University's National
Quality Research Center.
Among supermarkets, Publix at 81 percent and Supervalu at 77
percent stand out not only for their high ratings, but for their
year-to-year consistencies. Whereas supermarkets overall are down
from 76 percent in their baseline year of 1994, Publix remains
virtually unmoved from its initial 82 percent score, and Supervalu is
the same as its start of 77 percent.
By contrast, Kroger has slid from a 78 percent baseline to 74
percent in the latest measured quarter; it dipped as low as 71
percent as recently as 2003, yet rebounded to 73 percent in 2004.
Winn-Dixie went from 76 percent to 73 percent, having been as low as
71 percent in 1999 and 72 percent in 2004. Albertson's has vacillated
the most of the major chains measured over the years; its 75 percent
baseline performance rose to 77 percent one year later, and slid all
the way to 69 percent in 2004 before rebounding to 71 percent in
2005. Safeway has also been erratic, beginning at 72 percent and
rising to 76 percent as recently as 2002 before arriving at its
current 71 percent rating.
Notably, Wal-Mart had a high 80 percent customer satisfaction
baseline in 1994 as a discount department store. However, when its
separate measurement line as a supermarket debuted in 2004, it
registered 70 percent, and it stayed there in 2005, trailing every
other major supermarket chain measured. Meanwhile, its discount
department store rating also slid to 72 percent. Clearly, size and
price don't mean everything to the American consumer.
A more impressive rival food seller is Costco, the wholesale club
operator, at 79 percent, exactly where it began when its customer
satisfaction level was first measured in 1999. By comparison, Sam's
Club is at 76 percent.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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In Diet Category, Consumers Equate "No Calorie" To "No Taste"
There is no question that the food industry has responded to concerns
about the nation's obesity crisis with an enormous number of product
introductions and strategies designed to help consumers make
intelligent, informed decisions. Over the next four months,
Facts, Figures & The Future will look at a number of dietary
categories, examining how shopper choices illustrate consumer
priorities in areas such as carbohydrate count, glycemic index, fat
content and, this month, calorie count.
While media, governmental and cultural attention to the nation's
expanding waistline would appear to be at an all-time high, sales
figures collected by ACNielsen in the diet category suggest that
Americans may be putting taste first and calorie count second.
Indeed, when put side by side, it appears that "reduced calorie"
is seeing far more growth than "no calorie" in a wide variety of
product segments, implying that while consumers want to cut back on
their caloric intake, they also want to make sure that what they are
eating tastes good - so they are compromising with low calorie
products.
During the just completed calendar year, some of the strongest
growth in the diet segment was seen in reduced calorie categories
such as reduced calorie powdered drinks (+15.4 percent to $55.3
million in sales), reduced calorie refrigerated yogurt (+16.2 percent
to $1 billion), reduced calorie shelf stable fruit drinks (+14.6
percent to $62 million), reduced calorie liquid tea (+58.2 percent to
$38.4 million), reduced calorie non-refrigerated/non-shelf stable
fruit drinks (+41.5 percent to $60.1 million), and reduced calorie
canned fruit drinks (+34.4 percent to $2 million).
Click on thumbnails to enlarge
Use this link if you've received the text version
for graph one (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Mar06Diet1.gif) and this
link for graph two (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Mar06Diet2.gif)
Not every reduced calorie category saw strong growth, however,
but this seems to be on a product-by-product basis; in categories
where calories are seen as adding taste, consumers seem to be willing
to indulge themselves. Examples: reduced calorie margarine and
spreads, which were up just 2.7 percent, and reduced calorie
tortillas, which were down 16.4 percent in sales...almost certainly
because they are generally about as tasty as a bicycle tire.
And in some categories, where taste either doesn't matter or
where the segment is well-entrenched, sales of no-calorie items
remain strong - such as no-calorie liquid tea (+21.7 percent).
The lesson to manufacturers seems to be clear. More often than
not, taste will be the determining factor as consumers choose
products that will help them lose weight, and these same shoppers are
going to identify "no-calorie" products as lacking in taste.
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ACNielsen estimates that in 2005, over $2.2 billion was spent across
all retail channels in the deodorant category which includes
stick/solid, cologne type, aerosol, roll on, and remaining
deodorants.
The following slides indicate the percentage of households who
buy each type of deodorant, a sampling of higher indexing household
types who buy products in the overall deodorant category, and channel
share of category dollar sales.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Facts, Figures and the Future is copyrighted and may not be
reproduced without prior permission. For more information about the
publication, please contact Phil Lempert at 323-860-3070 or via
e-mail at
PLempert@FactsFiguresFuture.com
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