Remember when you were a kid?

If you are a Baby Boomer, you probably grew up in an era of 'new' foods: frozen meals, sugar-laden snacks, and lots of preservatives. Your mom urged you to "clean your plate" under the threat of sending your food to hungry children in far away lands if you did not.

GenXers have had a different experience, and were forced to fend for themselves as many of them grew up 'latch-key', in homes where parents were at work, and they made their own decisions at mealtimes.

As supermarkets and brands try to meet the needs of both these shopper groups, there is one certainty - the rules to create a winning food experience for both are quickly evolving into a more complex matrix: increased health issues combined with the desire for more convenience and exotic flavors makes the task more challenging than ever.

In this issue of F3, we explore generational differences, the alarming "globesity". Beverages, both alcoholic and non-alcoholic, seem to have yet another commonality - their lighter or diet versions will lead their products into the future.

Globesity: a situation where bigger is NOT better
Wal-Mart Expansion Impact
Soft Drinks Lose the Calories: Low-calorie offerings drive growth
Mexican Tortillas: From South of the Border to Mainstream America
Supermarkets Need To Focus On The Fresh Pizza Sales Opportunity
Liquid Lightning: Light beer drives all growth in the category
Channel Watch


ACNielsen's latest annual Consumer & Market Trends Report is now available. For information and to order click here.

Warehouse Clubs have established themselves as a major retail channel that is here to stay. Find out everything you need to know about the consumers who shop this channel in ACNielsen's latest study. Click Here for more details.


The FMI/Rodale Shopping for Health survey of consumers is available.
Click here
for more details.



May 16, 2005


Putting Generation Y in Focus

The new face of change is staring at us, bringing with it a whole line of challenges. Generation Y, the generation born starting in 1979, 1980 or 1981 (depending on who you listen to) is larger than the baby boomer population and is showing signs of shopping patterns that promise to be every bit as unsettling as those of their parents and grandparents.

U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends, FMI's recently released annual study of shopper behavior, caught a solid glimpse of this new generation and some of the signs we may all need to start studying. (Although we have collected statistics on Generation Y previously, 2005 marked the first year that our sample size of this group was large enough to present a credible picture. In large part, the sample improved because Gen Y is getting older and represents a larger segment of shoppers than ever before.)

Gen Y is more diverse than any previous generation, with 25 percent non-white. Their tastes are equally diverse with Gen Y showing far more interest in ethnic foods than any other group.

However, whether the foods are ethnic or traditional, Gen Y doesn't seem interested in cooking them. Gen Y eats out more than any other group in FMI's study, thanks in large part to having grown up in households where eating out was much more prevalent. They are interested in eating healthier, even though much of their eating out is concentrated in quick-serve restaurants.

It's interesting to point out that Gen Y eats out much more than the slightly older Generation X. However, Gen X is now in child-bearing years, which may be altering shopping and eating habits for those consumers. One stark difference between the two groups is their use of gourmet coffee shops. More than 10 percent of Gen Yers go to gourmet coffee shops three times a week or more. Only two percent of Gen Xers go to gourmet coffee shops as often.

When it comes to health issues, Gen Y is looking for information to guide them to better choices, but again these shoppers behave differently. Unlike all other shoppers who see the supermarket as the best place for such information, Gen Y looks to discount stores first and supermarkets second. This is a clear sign that these shoppers, who grew up in the era of channel blurring, don't associate one channel or another with a specific specialty.

Getting information to Gen Y will be challenging too. Unlike their parents and grandparents, Gen Y doesn't turn to newspapers or magazines for shopping information. For them, the best communication vehicles are the Internet and television. However, retailers tell FMI that nearly two-thirds of their current ad budget is spent on newspapers - a practice that may need to shift to meet these new shoppers.

It's just one more way that Gen Y will challenge all of us to examine current business models to find a path to the future.

 

The Healthy Eating Dilemma

For years, consumers have had a love/hate relationship with healthy eating-embracing the idea of a healthier lifestyle but often passing up the salad bar for a Big Mac.

Sales trends show declines in various "good-for-you" products during the fourth quarter holidays, when consumers seem to go on something of a healthy eating hiatus. That's followed by a one-week spike in sales New Year's week - evidence of both the power and short-term nature of New Year's diet-related resolutions.

Meanwhile, manufacturers have never been more committed to bringing healthy alternatives to market. In 2004, scores of products geared to specific health benefits were introduced - over 3,000 in the no/reduced fat category alone. Of the 11 good-for-you segments analyzed by ACNielsen's LabelTrends service, the low-/no-sugar and organic segments have shown strong, sustained growth. The former registered an 11.3% sales gain in the four weeks ending March 19, continuing a string of double-digit gains. Organics also remained strong with an increase of 14.4% for the same four-week period. As for the low-carb diet, sales of products touting reduced carbs have been slowing since the summer of 2004.

People find that staying on diets is very challenging. The good-for-you product segments enjoying sustained growth are those that offer health benefits without requiring a whole new way of eating.

Our research underscores a more pervasive issue; that only a small percentage of people lead a healthy lifestyle. A study by Michigan State University found only 3% of Americans have an exercise and diet regimen that qualifies as healthy. Dr. Matthew Reeves, an epidemiologist and lead researcher on the project noted that the criteria were so basic that he would have expected at least 15% to qualify for the healthy lifestyle index. Furthermore, the results were not much better for upper income, college educated people than anyone else.

How much more can the industry do to help? Marketers have rolled out items that address virtually every health concern. Retailers have responded with promotions, recipes, in-store nutritionists and special sections. In the UK, Tesco is going even further, with plans to introduce "signposts" on the front of its private label products that quickly and easily help shoppers understand each product's key nutritional information.

At a time when consumers and the food industry are trying to navigate the USDA's new food pyramid and figure out what really constitutes healthy eating, it's more important than ever for manufacturers and retailers to help shoppers who want to eat healthily cut through the clutter of confusing messages.


Globesity: a situation where bigger is NOT better
Americans like things big, and our large portions and affinity for consumption are contributing to our ever-expanding waistlines. However, a little-discussed issue is that Americans are not the only ones packing on the pounds. As reported in USA Today (11/03) many European countries have serious weight issues as well. In fact, the U.S. trails Italy, Spain, the UK, Denmark, France and Sweden in child obesity.


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The difference between the US and the EU countries in terms of adult obesity vs. child obesity is striking. According to the International Obesity Task Force May 2004 report, one in 10 children are overweight globally (155 million kids) and approximately 30-45 million children are classified as obese. The report also found that in the US, the "overweight pre-teen" population rose twice as fast in Hispanic and African-American populations as compared to the white population during the 1990s.

Some US school systems, in their attempt to ward off a future disaster, have mandated nutritional guidelines for foods sold in their vending machines, and in some cases re-instated physical fitness activities.

EU efforts to restrict advertising of "junk foods" to children has been hotly debated since Sweden and the Canadian province of Quebec prohibited such ads aimed at children 12 and under; it is estimated that 40 percent of ads during children's television programs are for food, the majority consisting of confectionery, fast food, sugared breakfast cereals, savory snacks or soft drinks. However, even with this regulation, neither area has decreased the rate of child obesity as compared to the surrounding areas.


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Surprisingly, the trend to diet among adults has slightly decreased in the U.S. in recent months; according to the most recent Homescan Panel Views Survey, just 51 percent reported the primary shopper of the household is on a diet as of Oct/Nov 2004 as compared to 55 percent the year before. Thirty-four percent of U.S. consumers are indeed overweight, and another 32% are obese, according to the Hartman Group, but only a small number of consumers actually consider themselves to be either - which may point to the problem.

Still, diet trends continue to translate into significant gains for businesses - in 2004, low fat and fat free products accounted for over $33 billion in US sales, according to ACNielsen LabelTrends in the Food, Drug and Mass outlets (excluding Wal-Mart). "Better-for-you" grocery stores like Whole Foods and Wild Oats have rapidly expanded, growing by 65% since 1999.

Wal-Mart Expansion Impact
Progressive Grocer recently reported results from an FMI survey citing that "retailers still see Wal-Mart as their biggest threat to success over the next 10 years." Wal-Mart's success has been remarkable, but what does the future hold for them as they look to expand their Supercenter format into new markets? And, what can we learn from their past successes and/or from the retail environment where they have expansion opportunities? To address these questions, we used our ACNielsen Homescan consumer panel to segment Wal-Mart banner stores into four geographic areas based on Wal-Mart's overall share-of-market within the 48 contiguous states. Shares were calculated on an all-outlet dollar basis yielding four state groupings with the following characteristics:

  • High share states: Wal-Mart all-outlet dollar share exceeds 32%
  • Medium share states: Wal-Mart share between 20% and 28%
  • Low share states: Wal-Mart share between 13% and 19%
  • Expansion states: Wal-Mart share < 13%

    Within each area we wanted to understand:
  • What impact Wal-Mart's share position has on the share-of-market for competitive retail channels?
  • How Wal-Mart consumer shopping behavior differs?
  • How other channel behavior differs?

    Not surprisingly, Wal-Mart's share position has a significant impact on the relative strength of other competitive retail channels. Within the high share states, Supercenters are the dominant retail channel, capturing 31% of the market. In the remaining three areas, Grocery holds the number one position with shares of 31% in the medium share states, 35% in the low share states, and 37% in the expansion states. Also note that Mass Merchandisers and Club stores have stronger share positions in the low share states and the expansion states.


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    Household shopping behavior also differs dramatically across the three areas. Shopping frequency is the behavior that is most critical to drive Wal-Mart growth and therefore the area where competitive retailers need to focus. As Wal-Mart adds Supercenters in their under-developed states, shopper penetration will grow because more households will have access to those stores. Given the stronger concentration of stores in the low share and expansion states (e.g., corporate grocery store counts for Albertsons, Kroger and Safeway are about 1,600 in the state of California alone), it is highly unlikely that Wal-Mart will come close to hitting the level of shopping frequency achieved in their high share states. Other factors, like ethnic diversity, real estate availability and traffic congestion, may also impact Wal-Mart's ability to drive shopping frequency.


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    Finally, Wal-Mart's success in driving shopping trips has come at the expense of fewer trips to Grocery, Mass Merchandisers, Drug and Club Stores. Conversely, Dollar Store shopping trips are the highest in Wal-Mart's higher share states. Wal-Mart Supercenters do not offer a convenient "in-and-out" shopping experience and Dollar Store retailers are taking full advantage. There are likely opportunities for retailers in other channels to recognize this fact and allow them to implement merchandising activities that also leverage the "convenience" factor to reverse and/or minimize trip decay as a result of Wal-Mart Supercenter expansion.


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    For further information or to arrange a comprehensive presentation on consumer shopping patterns, please contact Todd Hale at thale@acnielsen.com or 859-905-4615.

  • Soft Drinks Lose the Calories: Low-calorie offerings drive growth
    In an effort to stem the tide of negative publicity related to obesity issues and meet consumer desire, soft drink companies have thrown the bulk of their marketing money behind the low-calorie brands in their portfolios. But, it's important to note that even prior to the widespread attention paid to the obesity issue, consumers had been gravitating toward diet soda brands.

    According to ACNielsen Strategic Planner, dollar sales for regular full-calorie cola in the food/drug/mass merchandiser channels (excluding Wal-Mart data) have been in decline for the past four years. Diet cola, meanwhile, has grown - albeit minimally - in each of the past four years. Even so, the regular cola segment remains 1.5 times as large as diet cola in total dollar volume ($4.2 billion vs. $2.8 billion).


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    In order to truly appreciate the effect diets have been having on the overall soft drink market, a glance backwards is necessary. According to ACNielsen Strategic Planner data, the CSD category in the 52-week period ending April 21, 2001, generated $13.4 billion in sales in the combined food/mass/drug channels. Of that, 72 percent - or $9.6 billion - came from sales of regular, full-calorie sodas.

    Now, flash-forward to the present. In the 52-week period ending April 16, 2005, the overall CSD category generated $14.1 billion in sales (a five percent category growth) with diet sodas increasing their market share, six points to 34 percent.

    Last year, in an effort to grab users of both full-calorie and diet soft drinks, the CSD giants, Coca-Cola and Pepsi, invented the "mid-calorie" cola segment, which according to ACNielsen, represented less than one percent of CSD sales in the combined food, drug and mass merchandiser channels (excluding Wal-Mart data) during the 52-week period ending 4/16/05.

    As we all know, Coke and Pepsi are being challenged on two-fronts: the now-aging boomer population (that starts turning 65 in 2010) that created the huge and steady growth in this category, but is now gravitating away from the carbonated colas and towards alternatives: bottled water, juices and wine; and the growth of the Hispanic population which prefers fruit flavors and sodas made with sugar instead of high fructose corn syrup.

    Mexican Tortillas: From South of the Border to Mainstream America
    Spanish foods are making their way into the mainstream of American culture fueled by two trends: growth of Hispanic population and the Anglo search for more flavorful and exotic foodstuffs. Indeed, the popularity of wraps as a popular -- and healthy -- addition to the daily diets of many Americans has no doubt had a positive effect on overall tortilla sales.

    According to ACNielsen Strategic Planner, Mexican tortillas have grown into a $1 billion category, in the food/drug/mass merchandiser channels (excluding Wal-Mart data) for the 52-week period ending 4/16/05. That represents a 9.7 percent increase over the previous year.

    Flour tortillas are nearly twice as popular as corn tortillas. For the 52-week period ending 4/16/05, flour tortillas yielded $653.2 million in sales in the combined food/drug/mass channels (Wal-Mart excluded) - an 11.1 percent gain over the previous year, while corn tortillas generated $338.7 million in sales, up 5 percent from the year before.

    The trend toward healthy consumption has had an impact on this category as well. According to ACNielsen LabelTrends(TM) data, tortillas that featured whole grain on their labels grew 73.4 percent over the previous year for the period ending 4/16/05. That followed an explosive 110.8 percent gain for the 52-week period ending 4/17/04.


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    Organic tortillas, however, have not enjoyed the same success as other "good-for-you" products. In the 52-week period ending 4/16/05, organic tortillas saw an 11.9 percent drop in sales in the combined food/drug/mass channels (excepting Wal-Mart). This may merely represent a market correction, however, as the drop followed three straight years of healthy gains (19.3 percent from '01 to '02; 20.5 percent from '02 to '03; and 24 percent from '03 to '04).

    With a 52.2 percent household penetration rate, tortillas are now found in the majority of American households. And consumers are extremely loyal, with 74.4 percent of them coming back for more.

    This category is popular among affluent households, as it indexes higher as household income increases, topping out at an index of 130 among households earning $70,000 or more per year.

    Supermarkets Need To Focus On The Fresh Pizza Sales Opportunity
    Yogi Berra once perfectly expressed the average person's ambivalence about eating pizza in moderation when he said, "You better cut the pizza in four pieces because I'm not hungry enough to eat six." Today, the average American buys fresh pizza every 40 days - but the numbers also suggest that supermarkets are generating a paltry percentage of these sales.

    ACNielsen's Homescan Fresh Foods Index for 2004 illustrates just who the average fresh pizza buyer is and how much that person is spending - and the numbers are revealing about this $975 million business. (Fresh pizza is, for our purposes, defined as any non-UPC coded pizza. It does not include store-bought packaged refrigerated pizzas.)

    Twenty-two percent of households buy fresh pizza, with the average fresh pizza consumer spending $39.68 per year on the category. This would be great news for supermarkets, if they only were capturing more than about three percent of fresh pizza sales in the US.

    Almost 90 percent of all pizza purchases are purchased from pizza parlors/restaurants or other specialty pizza retailers, according to the Homescan Index. In fact, it should be sobering to supermarket operators to discover that more of the money spent on fresh pizza goes to warehouse club stores (4.2 percent) than to supermarkets...especially since ACNielsen Homescan research shows that shoppers only go to such clubs 11 times a year, while they go to supermarkets 69 times a year.

    In order to successfully expand on supermarket fresh pizza sales, the Homescan numbers suggest exactly what types of households are in the center of the target:

    The biggest buyers of fresh pizza are households with income between $20,000 and $29,999 a year...with the likelihood of buying pizza declining just a little bit the more money they make. This could suggest an opportunity, depending on a store's demographics, for emphasizing gourmet pizzas that carry higher margins over more mundane varieties to attract wealthier and more discriminating households to the category.


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    Liquid Lightning: Light beer drives all growth in the category
    Light beer has quite literally taken over the domestic premium beer category. According to ACNielsen data, regular (i.e., "full calorie") beer has seen a decline in dollar volume in each of the last two years. That decline has been more than offset, however, by a steady increase in sales of light beer.

    Just as in the soft drink category, where consumers are flocking towards the diet segment in an effort to forego unnecessary calories, so too in beer, the light segment has taken off. According to ACNielsen Strategic Planner data, the light segment grew by nearly a billion dollars over the four-year period between 3/24/01 and 3/19/05 ($3.3 billion to $4.2 billion) in the combined food, drug and mass channels (excluding Wal-Mart data), an increase of 27.3 percent. The trend is similar in convenience stores, where light beer grew 3.4 percent in dollar volume between 3/20/04 and 3/19/05 ($5.2 billion to $5.4 billion) while regular beer declined 3.2 percent over the same reporting period ($4.1 billion from $4.2 billion).

    Today, all three major U.S. brewers feature light offerings as their leading brands (Bud Light, Miller Lite and Coors Light). It should come as no surprise, then, that 2004 represented a benchmark year in the brewing history of the United States when sales of domestic premium light beer surpassed their full-calorie counterpart. According to ACNielsen data, light beers generated $4,001,665,807 dollars in the combined food, drug and mass channels (excluding Wal-Mart) over the 52-week period ending 3/20/04, surpassing full-calorie beers, which generated $3,933,333,683.


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    Within the light segment, a new sub-segment has emerged. Low-carb beer saw exponential growth early in this decade - growth that has since slowed somewhat, but is still booming. In the 52-week period between 4/20/02 and 4/19/03, 12 beers identified by ACNielsen LabelTrends as "carb-conscious" brands grew by a stunning 2924.1 percent. That growth has "moderated" to 274.8 percent in the 52-week period between 4/19/03 and 4/17/04, and has "slowed" to 15.7 percent over the most recent 52-week period ending 4/16/05.


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    But keep things in perspective: Even with the growth in the segment, low-carb brews make up only 3.5 percent of the overall beer category.


    ACNielsen estimates that in 2004, over $13.9 billion was spent across all retail channels in the packaged deli meats category, which includes bacon, frankfurters, cocktail franks, canned ham, lunchmeat, breakfast and dinner sausages. The following slides indicate the percentage of households who buy each type of packaged deli meats, each channel's share of category dollar sales, and a sampling of higher indexing household types who buy products in the overall packaged deli meats category.



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    Facts, Figures and the Future is copyrighted and may not be reproduced without prior permission. For more information about the publication, please contact Phil Lempert at 323-860-3070 or via e-mail at PLempert@FactsFiguresFuture.com

     
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