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Remember when you were a kid?
If you are a Baby Boomer, you probably grew up in an era of 'new'
foods: frozen meals, sugar-laden snacks, and lots of preservatives.
Your mom urged you to "clean your plate" under the threat of sending
your food to hungry children in far away lands if you did not.
GenXers have had a different experience, and were forced to fend
for themselves as many of them grew up 'latch-key', in homes where
parents were at work, and they made their own decisions at mealtimes.
As supermarkets and brands try to meet the needs of both these
shopper groups, there is one certainty - the rules to create a
winning food experience for both are quickly evolving into a more
complex matrix: increased health issues combined with the desire for
more convenience and exotic flavors makes the task more challenging
than ever.
In this issue of F3, we explore generational differences, the
alarming "globesity". Beverages, both alcoholic and non-alcoholic,
seem to have yet another commonality - their lighter or diet versions
will lead their products into the future.
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ACNielsen's latest annual Consumer & Market Trends Report is now
available. For information and to order
click here.

Warehouse Clubs have established themselves as a major retail channel
that is here to stay. Find out everything you need to know about the
consumers who shop this channel in ACNielsen's latest study.
Click Here
for more details.

The FMI/Rodale Shopping for Health survey of consumers is available.
Click here for more details.
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May 16, 2005
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Putting Generation Y in Focus
The new face of change is staring at us, bringing with it a whole
line of challenges. Generation Y, the generation born starting in
1979, 1980 or 1981 (depending on who you listen to) is larger than
the baby boomer population and is showing signs of shopping patterns
that promise to be every bit as unsettling as those of their parents
and grandparents.
U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends, FMI's recently released
annual study of shopper behavior, caught a solid glimpse of this new
generation and some of the signs we may all need to start studying.
(Although we have collected statistics on Generation Y previously,
2005 marked the first year that our sample size of this group was
large enough to present a credible picture. In large part, the
sample improved because Gen Y is getting older and represents a
larger segment of shoppers than ever before.)
Gen Y is more diverse than any previous generation, with 25
percent non-white. Their tastes are equally diverse with Gen Y
showing far more interest in ethnic foods than any other group.
However, whether the foods are ethnic or traditional, Gen Y
doesn't seem interested in cooking them. Gen Y eats out more than
any other group in FMI's study, thanks in large part to having grown
up in households where eating out was much more prevalent. They are
interested in eating healthier, even though much of their eating out
is concentrated in quick-serve restaurants.
It's interesting to point out that Gen Y eats out much more than
the slightly older Generation X. However, Gen X is now in
child-bearing years, which may be altering shopping and eating habits
for those consumers. One stark difference between the two groups is
their use of gourmet coffee shops. More than 10 percent of Gen Yers
go to gourmet coffee shops three times a week or more. Only two
percent of Gen Xers go to gourmet coffee shops as often.
When it comes to health issues, Gen Y is looking for information
to guide them to better choices, but again these shoppers behave
differently. Unlike all other shoppers who see the supermarket as
the best place for such information, Gen Y looks to discount stores
first and supermarkets second. This is a clear sign that these
shoppers, who grew up in the era of channel blurring, don't associate
one channel or another with a specific specialty.
Getting information to Gen Y will be challenging too. Unlike
their parents and grandparents, Gen Y doesn't turn to newspapers or
magazines for shopping information. For them, the best communication
vehicles are the Internet and television. However, retailers tell
FMI that nearly two-thirds of their current ad budget is spent on
newspapers - a practice that may need to shift to meet these new
shoppers.
It's just one more way that Gen Y will challenge all of us to
examine current business models to find a path to the future.
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The Healthy Eating Dilemma
For years, consumers have had a love/hate relationship with
healthy eating-embracing the idea of a healthier lifestyle but often
passing up the salad bar for a Big Mac.
Sales trends show declines in various "good-for-you" products
during the fourth quarter holidays, when consumers seem to go on
something of a healthy eating hiatus. That's followed by a one-week
spike in sales New Year's week - evidence of both the power and
short-term nature of New Year's diet-related resolutions.
Meanwhile, manufacturers have never been more committed to
bringing healthy alternatives to market. In 2004, scores of products
geared to specific health benefits were introduced - over 3,000 in
the no/reduced fat category alone. Of the 11 good-for-you segments
analyzed by ACNielsen's LabelTrends service, the low-/no-sugar
and organic segments have shown strong, sustained growth. The former
registered an 11.3% sales gain in the four weeks ending March 19,
continuing a string of double-digit gains. Organics also remained
strong with an increase of 14.4% for the same four-week period. As
for the low-carb diet, sales of products touting reduced carbs have
been slowing since the summer of 2004.
People find that staying on diets is very challenging. The
good-for-you product segments enjoying sustained growth are those
that offer health benefits without requiring a whole new way of
eating.
Our research underscores a more pervasive issue; that only a
small percentage of people lead a healthy lifestyle. A study by
Michigan State University found only 3% of Americans have an exercise
and diet regimen that qualifies as healthy. Dr. Matthew Reeves, an
epidemiologist and lead researcher on the project noted that the
criteria were so basic that he would have expected at least 15% to
qualify for the healthy lifestyle index. Furthermore, the results
were not much better for upper income, college educated people than
anyone else.
How much more can the industry do to help? Marketers have rolled
out items that address virtually every health concern. Retailers have
responded with promotions, recipes, in-store nutritionists and
special sections. In the UK, Tesco is going even further, with plans
to introduce "signposts" on the front of its private label products
that quickly and easily help shoppers understand each product's key
nutritional information.
At a time when consumers and the food industry are trying to
navigate the USDA's new food pyramid and figure out what really
constitutes healthy eating, it's more important than ever for
manufacturers and retailers to help shoppers who want to eat
healthily cut through the clutter of confusing messages.
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Globesity: a situation where bigger is NOT better
Americans like things big, and our large portions and affinity for
consumption are contributing to our ever-expanding waistlines.
However, a little-discussed issue is that Americans are not the only
ones packing on the pounds. As reported in USA Today (11/03) many
European countries have serious weight issues as well. In fact, the
U.S. trails Italy, Spain, the UK, Denmark, France and Sweden in child
obesity.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
The difference between the US and the EU countries in terms of
adult obesity vs. child obesity is striking. According to the
International Obesity Task Force May 2004 report, one in 10 children
are overweight globally (155 million kids) and approximately 30-45
million children are classified as obese. The report also found that
in the US, the "overweight pre-teen" population rose twice as fast in
Hispanic and African-American populations as compared to the white
population during the 1990s.
Some US school systems, in their attempt to ward off a future
disaster, have mandated nutritional guidelines for foods sold in
their vending machines, and in some cases re-instated physical
fitness activities.
EU efforts to restrict advertising of "junk foods" to children
has been hotly debated since Sweden and the Canadian province of
Quebec prohibited such ads aimed at children 12 and under; it is
estimated that 40 percent of ads during children's television
programs are for food, the majority consisting of confectionery, fast
food, sugared breakfast cereals, savory snacks or soft drinks.
However, even with this regulation, neither area has decreased the
rate of child obesity as compared to the surrounding areas.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Surprisingly, the trend to diet among adults has slightly
decreased in the U.S. in recent months; according to the most recent
Homescan Panel Views Survey, just 51 percent reported the primary
shopper of the household is on a diet as of Oct/Nov 2004 as compared
to 55 percent the year before. Thirty-four percent of U.S. consumers
are indeed overweight, and another 32% are obese, according to the
Hartman Group, but only a small number of consumers actually consider
themselves to be either - which may point to the problem.
Still, diet trends continue to translate into significant gains
for businesses - in 2004, low fat and fat free products accounted for
over $33 billion in US sales, according to ACNielsen LabelTrends in
the Food, Drug and Mass outlets (excluding Wal-Mart).
"Better-for-you" grocery stores like Whole Foods and Wild Oats have
rapidly expanded, growing by 65% since 1999.
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Wal-Mart Expansion Impact
Progressive Grocer recently reported results from an FMI
survey citing that "retailers still see Wal-Mart as their biggest
threat to success over the next 10 years." Wal-Mart's success has
been remarkable, but what does the future hold for them as they look
to expand their Supercenter format into new markets? And, what can
we learn from their past successes and/or from the retail environment
where they have expansion opportunities? To address these questions,
we used our ACNielsen Homescan consumer panel to segment Wal-Mart
banner stores into four geographic areas based on Wal-Mart's overall
share-of-market within the 48 contiguous states. Shares were
calculated on an all-outlet dollar basis yielding four state
groupings with the following characteristics:
High share states: Wal-Mart all-outlet dollar share exceeds
32%
Medium share states: Wal-Mart share between 20% and 28%
Low share states: Wal-Mart share between 13% and 19%
Expansion states: Wal-Mart share < 13%
Within each area we wanted to understand:
What impact Wal-Mart's share position has on the
share-of-market for competitive retail channels?
How Wal-Mart consumer shopping behavior differs?
How other channel behavior differs?
Not surprisingly, Wal-Mart's share position has a significant
impact on the relative strength of other competitive retail channels.
Within the high share states, Supercenters are the dominant retail
channel, capturing 31% of the market. In the remaining three areas,
Grocery holds the number one position with shares of 31% in the
medium share states, 35% in the low share states, and 37% in the
expansion states. Also note that Mass Merchandisers and Club stores
have stronger share positions in the low share states and the
expansion states.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Household shopping behavior also differs dramatically across the
three areas. Shopping frequency is the behavior that is most
critical to drive Wal-Mart growth and therefore the area where
competitive retailers need to focus. As Wal-Mart adds Supercenters
in their under-developed states, shopper penetration will grow
because more households will have access to those stores. Given the
stronger concentration of stores in the low share and expansion
states (e.g., corporate grocery store counts for Albertsons, Kroger
and Safeway are about 1,600 in the state of California alone), it is
highly unlikely that Wal-Mart will come close to hitting the level of
shopping frequency achieved in their high share states. Other
factors, like ethnic diversity, real estate availability and traffic
congestion, may also impact Wal-Mart's ability to drive shopping
frequency.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Finally, Wal-Mart's success in driving shopping trips has come at
the expense of fewer trips to Grocery, Mass Merchandisers, Drug and
Club Stores. Conversely, Dollar Store shopping trips are the highest
in Wal-Mart's higher share states. Wal-Mart Supercenters do not
offer a convenient "in-and-out" shopping experience and Dollar Store
retailers are taking full advantage. There are likely opportunities
for retailers in other channels to recognize this fact and allow them
to implement merchandising activities that also leverage the
"convenience" factor to reverse and/or minimize trip decay as a
result of Wal-Mart Supercenter expansion.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
For further information or to arrange a comprehensive
presentation on consumer shopping patterns, please contact Todd Hale
at
thale@acnielsen.com or
859-905-4615.
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Soft Drinks Lose the Calories: Low-calorie offerings drive growth
In an effort to stem the tide of negative publicity related to
obesity issues and meet consumer desire, soft drink companies have
thrown the bulk of their marketing money behind the low-calorie
brands in their portfolios. But, it's important to note that even
prior to the widespread attention paid to the obesity issue,
consumers had been gravitating toward diet soda brands.
According to ACNielsen Strategic Planner, dollar sales for
regular full-calorie cola in the food/drug/mass merchandiser channels
(excluding Wal-Mart data) have been in decline for the past four
years. Diet cola, meanwhile, has grown - albeit minimally - in each
of the past four years. Even so, the regular cola segment remains 1.5
times as large as diet cola in total dollar volume ($4.2 billion vs.
$2.8 billion).
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
In order to truly appreciate the effect diets have been having on
the overall soft drink market, a glance backwards is necessary.
According to ACNielsen Strategic Planner data, the CSD category in
the 52-week period ending April 21, 2001, generated $13.4 billion in
sales in the combined food/mass/drug channels. Of that, 72 percent -
or $9.6 billion - came from sales of regular, full-calorie sodas.
Now, flash-forward to the present. In the 52-week period ending
April 16, 2005, the overall CSD category generated $14.1 billion in
sales (a five percent category growth) with diet sodas increasing
their market share, six points to 34 percent.
Last year, in an effort to grab users of both full-calorie and
diet soft drinks, the CSD giants, Coca-Cola and Pepsi, invented the
"mid-calorie" cola segment, which according to ACNielsen, represented
less than one percent of CSD sales in the combined food, drug and
mass merchandiser channels (excluding Wal-Mart data) during the
52-week period ending 4/16/05.
As we all know, Coke and Pepsi are being challenged on
two-fronts: the now-aging boomer population (that starts turning 65
in 2010) that created the huge and steady growth in this category,
but is now gravitating away from the carbonated colas and towards
alternatives: bottled water, juices and wine; and the growth of the
Hispanic population which prefers fruit flavors and sodas made with
sugar instead of high fructose corn syrup.
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Mexican Tortillas: From South of the Border to Mainstream America
Spanish foods are making their way into the mainstream of American
culture fueled by two trends: growth of Hispanic population and the
Anglo search for more flavorful and exotic foodstuffs. Indeed, the
popularity of wraps as a popular -- and healthy -- addition to the
daily diets of many Americans has no doubt had a positive effect on
overall tortilla sales.
According to ACNielsen Strategic Planner, Mexican tortillas have
grown into a $1 billion category, in the food/drug/mass merchandiser
channels (excluding Wal-Mart data) for the 52-week period ending
4/16/05. That represents a 9.7 percent increase over the previous
year.
Flour tortillas are nearly twice as popular as corn tortillas.
For the 52-week period ending 4/16/05, flour tortillas yielded $653.2
million in sales in the combined food/drug/mass channels (Wal-Mart
excluded) - an 11.1 percent gain over the previous year, while corn
tortillas generated $338.7 million in sales, up 5 percent from the
year before.
The trend toward healthy consumption has had an impact on this
category as well. According to ACNielsen LabelTrends(TM) data,
tortillas that featured whole grain on their labels grew 73.4 percent
over the previous year for the period ending 4/16/05. That followed
an explosive 110.8 percent gain for the 52-week period ending 4/17/04.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Organic tortillas, however, have not enjoyed the same success as
other "good-for-you" products. In the 52-week period ending 4/16/05,
organic tortillas saw an 11.9 percent drop in sales in the combined
food/drug/mass channels (excepting Wal-Mart). This may merely
represent a market correction, however, as the drop followed three
straight years of healthy gains (19.3 percent from '01 to '02; 20.5
percent from '02 to '03; and 24 percent from '03 to '04).
With a 52.2 percent household penetration rate, tortillas are now
found in the majority of American households. And consumers are
extremely loyal, with 74.4 percent of them coming back for more.
This category is popular among affluent households, as it indexes
higher as household income increases, topping out at an index of 130
among households earning $70,000 or more per year.
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Supermarkets Need To Focus On The Fresh Pizza Sales Opportunity
Yogi Berra once perfectly expressed the average person's ambivalence
about eating pizza in moderation when he said, "You better cut the
pizza in four pieces because I'm not hungry enough to eat six."
Today, the average American buys fresh pizza every 40 days - but the
numbers also suggest that supermarkets are generating a paltry
percentage of these sales.
ACNielsen's Homescan Fresh Foods Index for 2004 illustrates just
who the average fresh pizza buyer is and how much that person is
spending - and the numbers are revealing about this $975 million
business. (Fresh pizza is, for our purposes, defined as any non-UPC
coded pizza. It does not include store-bought packaged refrigerated
pizzas.)
Twenty-two percent of households buy fresh pizza, with the
average fresh pizza consumer spending $39.68 per year on the
category. This would be great news for supermarkets, if they only
were capturing more than about three percent of fresh pizza sales in
the US.
Almost 90 percent of all pizza purchases are purchased from pizza
parlors/restaurants or other specialty pizza retailers, according to
the Homescan Index. In fact, it should be sobering to supermarket
operators to discover that more of the money spent on fresh pizza
goes to warehouse club stores (4.2 percent) than to
supermarkets...especially since ACNielsen Homescan research shows
that shoppers only go to such clubs 11 times a year, while they go to
supermarkets 69 times a year.
In order to successfully expand on supermarket fresh pizza sales,
the Homescan numbers suggest exactly what types of households are in
the center of the target:
The biggest buyers of fresh pizza are households with income
between $20,000 and $29,999 a year...with the likelihood of buying
pizza declining just a little bit the more money they make. This
could suggest an opportunity, depending on a store's demographics,
for emphasizing gourmet pizzas that carry higher margins over more
mundane varieties to attract wealthier and more discriminating
households to the category.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Liquid Lightning: Light beer drives all growth in the category
Light beer has quite literally taken over the domestic premium beer
category. According to ACNielsen data, regular (i.e., "full calorie")
beer has seen a decline in dollar volume in each of the last two
years. That decline has been more than offset, however, by a steady
increase in sales of light beer.
Just as in the soft drink category, where consumers are flocking
towards the diet segment in an effort to forego unnecessary calories,
so too in beer, the light segment has taken off. According to
ACNielsen Strategic Planner data, the light segment grew by nearly a
billion dollars over the four-year period between 3/24/01 and 3/19/05
($3.3 billion to $4.2 billion) in the combined food, drug and mass
channels (excluding Wal-Mart data), an increase of 27.3 percent. The
trend is similar in convenience stores, where light beer grew 3.4
percent in dollar volume between 3/20/04 and 3/19/05 ($5.2 billion to
$5.4 billion) while regular beer declined 3.2 percent over the same
reporting period ($4.1 billion from $4.2 billion).
Today, all three major U.S. brewers feature light offerings as
their leading brands (Bud Light, Miller Lite and Coors Light). It
should come as no surprise, then, that 2004 represented a benchmark
year in the brewing history of the United States when sales of
domestic premium light beer surpassed their full-calorie counterpart.
According to ACNielsen data, light beers generated $4,001,665,807
dollars in the combined food, drug and mass channels (excluding
Wal-Mart) over the 52-week period ending 3/20/04, surpassing
full-calorie beers, which generated $3,933,333,683.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Within the light segment, a new sub-segment has emerged. Low-carb
beer saw exponential growth early in this decade - growth that has
since slowed somewhat, but is still booming. In the 52-week period
between 4/20/02 and 4/19/03, 12 beers identified by ACNielsen
LabelTrends as "carb-conscious" brands grew by a stunning 2924.1
percent. That growth has "moderated" to 274.8 percent in the 52-week
period between 4/19/03 and 4/17/04, and has "slowed" to 15.7 percent
over the most recent 52-week period ending 4/16/05.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
But keep things in perspective: Even with the growth in the
segment, low-carb brews make up only 3.5 percent of the overall beer
category.
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ACNielsen estimates that in 2004, over $13.9 billion was spent across
all retail channels in the packaged deli meats category, which
includes bacon, frankfurters, cocktail franks, canned ham, lunchmeat,
breakfast and dinner sausages. The following slides indicate the
percentage of households who buy each type of packaged deli meats,
each channel's share of category dollar sales, and a sampling of
higher indexing household types who buy products in the overall
packaged deli meats category.
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Facts, Figures and the Future is copyrighted and may not be
reproduced without prior permission. For more information about the
publication, please contact Phil Lempert at 323-860-3070 or via
e-mail at
PLempert@FactsFiguresFuture.com
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