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The family that eats together...
One of the most important announcements that came out of Chicago
last week was the FMI's support of "Family Day".
This event, celebrated each year on the fourth Monday in
September, will be heavily promoted in supermarkets throughout the
nation, and is the brainchild of the National Center on Addiction and
Substance Abuse, headed up by Joe Califano Jr., the former U.S.
Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare.
The objective of Family Day - A Day to Eat Dinner with Your
Children - is rather simple and reinforces what most of us already
know; the family that eats together on a regular basis has better
communication and parental engagement. But the extent of the mealtime
influence wasn't fully understood until 1998 when the Center analyzed
the results of their annual survey of children aged 12-17 and found
that in those families that ate together on a regular basis, there
was almost a fifty percent lower risk of tobacco, alcohol and drug
abuse problems.
Over the past twenty years, other research supports the fact that
teens who eat dinner with their parents do better in school and have
healthier eating habits as well.
We can only hope that the support that our nation's supermarkets
will be giving this year's Family Day will push it into becoming
"Family Year". For more information about the program visit
www.CASAFamilyDay.org.
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The FMI U.S. Grocery Store Shopper Trends 2005 is available. Click on
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This annual report provides you with a complete financial picture of
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U.S. Hispanics are emerging as the marketing opportunity of the 21st
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Latinos far outspend the average U.S. supermarket shopper. Learn more
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May 16, 2006
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Getting to Know Today's Shopper
Assembling a single picture of today's supermarket shopper is a
near impossibility.
Growing diversity in background, shopping needs, outlook and
feelings make the picture of today's shopper more muddled than ever,
giving the industry a powerful challenge of understanding how to
provide the best possible shopping experience to a large enough group.
U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends 2006, FMI's annual study of
shopper behavior provides a unique perspective into this complicated
world of shoppers that can help retailers and suppliers of all types
and sizes better create strategies for success. The key is to use
local market knowledge in concert with these national trends to build
the best picture of local shoppers and the needs they may have.
Some of the key findings to consider in this year's report are:
While shoppers don't understand channel blurring, they are
clearly reacting to the new retail landscape. The percentage of
shoppers citing traditional supermarkets as their primary food
destination continues to decline, while increasing numbers cite
supercenters as their store of choice.
Interestingly, while most shoppers are relatively satisfied with
their primary store, the improvements they would most like tend to be
the top attributes of another type of format. For instance,
supermarket shoppers would like to see lower prices overall, while
supercenter shoppers want better quality perishable products. And no
matter which format they shop, consumers have certain expectations of
a store that must be met. They value cleanliness, competitive prices
and a good shopping environment, including helpful staff.
The power of perishables is clear and the advantage is
clearly in favor of traditional supermarkets, which easily retain
most of their shoppers' dollars for all products. In contrast, a
large percentage of supercenter shoppers use a second store for meat
and produce in particular.
However, one concern for those winning the fill-in trips is that
shoppers report much greater satisfaction with their main shopping
trip of the week than they do with the trips they make in between.
Convenience, especially at the checkout, is essential for improving
the fill-in shopping trip experience.
Shopper satisfaction rises significantly among those who also
enjoy cooking. One of the major contradictions in the shopper survey
is the almost equally large group of shoppers who enjoy or abhor both
cooking and shopping.
Convenience and speed continue to top the wish list for
shoppers. Creating a quicker shopping experience with easier to find
meal ingredients, prepared meals, express checkout lanes and more
self-checkout are all among the top attributes shoppers cite as
reasons to switch a store or become even happier with their current
store.
Today's households continue to look more diverse than ever.
Along with the growth in the size and diversity of the minority
population, retailers are also seeing an increasing number of
shoppers from single-parent or empty nest homes.
Additionally, the product needs driving different shoppers
continues to grow. Concerns about diet and nutrition or even the
conditions under which products are grown can shape shopper choices.
In particular, shoppers say they continue to struggle with diet and
health. A majority say they know they aren't eating as well as they
should and they are looking for help in menu planning.
The sharp gas price increases of the past year have impacted
shopping behavior in food stores and elsewhere. Shoppers say they
are trying to cut back on luxury items of all kinds and for some that
means less eating away from home. Others say that when they eat out,
they focus on eating at less costly restaurants.
As with any broad based report on shopper behavior, contradictory
trends and actions abound in the answers found in this report.
More than ever, it is clear that no single approach will work for
all shoppers and that many approaches may need blending to build the
right answer.
However, individual companies can use these insights to get a
sense of the growing concerns and desires voiced by different
shoppers that could help create shopping experiences that build
loyalty, sales and customer satisfaction.
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360: A Holistic Approach to Shoppers
I find myself sitting this morning with over 1,000 CPG brand
managers and retailers at this year's Consumer 360 conference in Palm
Desert. "Today is the first day of the rest of your life" comes to
mind. Sitting here, I think it's apropos to suggest a slight
variation: "Today is the first day of the rest of your consumers'
shopping lives".
Reaching and empowering shoppers to buy our products is more
difficult than ever. New challenges in-store coupled with more media
choices and a deluge of food and health information (and
mis-information) has created a more informed and at times, frustrated
consumer.
If we are to be successful in building a relationship with
consumers, we must approach them with a more holistic methodology.
Years ago, just running a terrific television ad with a high level of
GRPs would move products off the shelves. Not anymore.
Today's success in the brand world starts with a more complex
analysis of the shopper broken down by demographics, psychographics
and desires - and then overlayed with the 2006 realities of life:
less time, less energy and less money. How do we reach these shoppers
and motivate them?
This morning, I've invited ten residents of the Palm Springs area
to join us in order to share their likes and dislikes, their
frustrations and what makes them happy. The group is a mix of the
area: women, men, old, young, Anglo, Latino, African American and
Gay. Not a traditional "focus group", these shoppers are here for us
to get answers. Nothing is off limits! Ask about your brand, your
retail store and what are the future trends.
Consumer 360 is a unique conference. Here's what is on my agenda:
Trip Mission
The better understanding of consumer analysis of the decision
processes on where and when to shop. It's the consumer perspective of
"need states" questioning how well our marketing, merchandising, and
trade plans reflect shopper needs.
Loyalty Marketing programs are here to stay!
Examples of retailers and CPG brands that are driving their
customer marketing and exploring the fundamental shift in how
retailers make decisions about what real shoppers are doing inside
stores.
The Mystery Behind the Hispanic Consumer's Shopping List
We already know that Hispanics are truly influencing consumer
markets and brands. Bilingual, young and educated, this is an
extremely important consumer market that should be targeted. This
discussion gives us a look into the trends playing out in the U.S.
over the next few years and how marketers must prepare.
How Can We Drive New Product Volume is Today's $64,000 Question
Double the exposure and trial rate for a new brand, and you will
double sales for the brand. Easier said then done. A discussion deep
into the facts and strategies that can make this fundamental formula
a reality.
What's Your Brand's Temperature?
Think of your annual physical, where the doctor uses a variety of
tests to put together a "360" analysis of your health. ACNielsen's
Brand Health Barometer (BHB) does the same thing for brands
integrating data from multiple sources (ensuring cohesive branding
implications and strategy) and taking into account both category and
brand level information. Topline? The "pulse" and DNA of your brand
and category.
Consumer Targeting in a Media Driven World
Technology is unleashing forces that are changing communications
and productivity...and connecting to consumers in new ways. The
result is change and a revolutionary effect on media. We are now more
fast-paced, on the move, and multi-tasking living in an attention
fragmented world. How can a brand break through?
F3 will do an in-depth reporting of these and the scores
of other learnings and implications over the next few issues. But for
now, I have to get ready to listen to my consumer panel...
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Use Of "Pigment Fixatives" Creates Potential Problems For Fresh Meat Marketers
The controversy that erupted earlier this year over the use of carbon
monoxide as a "pigment fixative" for meat - keeps the product's pink
or rosy color in an effort to make it look fresh even as it
approaches, or even passes, its expiration date - seems to have a
decidedly mixed impact on the consumer public.
On the one hand, shoppers polled by
SupermarketGuru.com are skeptical about the process, though it
remains to be seen if they will vote against the process with their
pocketbooks since fresh meat seems to be performing better in stores
than the canned or frozen varieties.
The problem with pigment fixatives is that sometimes the color
may be fresh-looking, but the meat or seafood may actually be
spoiled. And since consumers often depend on how a product looks
when deciding whether to buy it or eat it, this means that consumers
are actually being deceived by a practice that, according to numerous
press reports, is both rampant and undisclosed on product labels.
What was particularly alarming to some consumer advocates was the
fact that a number of the companies using the process don't disclose
it, and don't want to discuss it. At the same time, critics were
saying that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) may have
circumvented its own policies by allowing the treatments without a
full and formal evaluation.
In addition, an FDA spokesperson demonstrated what some believed
was an alarming lack of consumer knowledge when she said that there
is no evidence that shoppers pay attention to meat coloration when
making buying decisions. And the American Meat Institute (AMI) said
that since all meat packaging is labeled with an expiration date, the
debate is much ado about nothing.
There also was some controversy generated when it was revealed
that at least some of the bad publicity for the use of carbon
monoxide in meat was being generated by a company with a competing
process...though that didn't change the fact that 1) it was being
used as a pigment fixative, 2) consumers didn't know it, and 3)
apparently, consumers didn't like it.
Asked by SupermarketGuru.com if they knew about the use of
carbon monoxide in meat, more than two-thirds - 68 percent - said no.
Some 58 percent of respondents said they did not trust the pigment
fixative process, with another 36 percent saying they were not sure.
More than half of respondents - 52 percent - said that this
revelation would affect their meat buying decisions, with another 25
percent saying they were unsure. And a whopping 93 percent of
respondents said they believed that the use of carbon monoxide as a
pigment fixative was an attempt to fool consumers...though 47 percent
of total respondents said they would not object to its use as long as
it is clearly labeled.
Click on thumbnails to enlarge
Use this link if you've received the text version
for graph one (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/May06Meat1.gif) and this
link for graph two (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/May06Meat2.gif)
Meanwhile, statistics generated by ACNielsen suggest that
retailers and suppliers had better be careful about their image with
this matter, since meat sales are not growing as fast as they were a
year ago. While fresh meat sales are up six percent in terms of
equivalized unit volume for the 12 months ending 3/25/06, that's less
than half the 16.5 percent increase it had for the 12 months ending
3/26/2005, and it ends three straight years of double digit increases.
Carbon monoxide may hide a decline in freshness in the meat
category, but it won't hide a decline in sales.
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Private Label Gaining Share of Wallet & Share of Mind
In last month's issue we informed our readers about new private label
research in the works from ACNielsen, Daymon Worldwide, DemandTec and
McKinsey. Study results were presented in Chicago at the Daymon
Worldwide Forum on May 5th and 6th and at the FMI show on May 7th and
9th.
The purpose of the ACNielsen portion of the study was to provide
consumer research of behaviors and attitudes that demonstrate how
retailers can build profitable customer loyalty and competitive
differentiation though private label brands. Here are the key
insights from the study along with some specifics on consumer
opinions about private label quality, price/value, and assortment.
Executive Insights
1. Retailers with greater focus on private label (i.e., those
with higher overall private label shares) drive solid buying
behaviors and more positive consumer attitudes towards private label.
2. While heavier private label buyers offset "branded" spending
with private label spending, they are in stores more often buying
both private label and branded products, providing retailers with
opportunities to drive store loyalty.
3. Heavier private label buyers offset branded spending with
private label buying - enabling consumer savings and allowing
retailers to compete in a "value-oriented" environment.
4. Study findings suggest an opportunity to narrow price
relationships between private label and branded products.
5. Consumers who spend the most at retail have a weaker private
label commitment, but these are also the consumers where private
label sales opportunities are the greatest - suggesting a need for
greater focus on premium private label offerings.
6. Private label is no longer limited to the historic buyer
profile of low to middle income, blue collar families. We see high
buyer development in households with $70,000 plus incomes,
particularly among households who are top-spend private label buyers
who shop in retailers with strong private label commitment.
Consumer Attitudes towards Private Label
Private label is in a position to compete on quality with national brands:
Up to 85% of top-spend private label buyers say they are a
good alternative to brands
59% of consumers say they are "just as good"
1/3 of consumers state that some private label items have
"higher quality" than brands
4 of 5 consumers think private label products are acceptable
when quality really matters
Improvements to private label packaging paying off:
-Even low-spend private consumers have a positive
image of packaging
9 of 10 consumers say they feel comfortable serving private
label to their guests
Consumers have positive attitudes towards private label's value proposition:
2 out of 3 consumers believe private label is "an extremely
good value"
Consumers feel that private label is no longer for 'lower
income' families
73% of consumers do not think brands are worth the extra price
-36% are willing to pay the same or more for private
label items they really like
About half of consumers compare private label prices between
retailers
Opportunities to expand private label assortment:
Almost half of consumers state they would buy more private
products if a larger variety was available
Closing Thoughts
Private label provides retailers with the ability to compete
in a "value-oriented" world & drive store loyalty
Stop thinking about price gaps & start aligning private label
pricing to reflect the quality of your private label offerings
Expand or enhance your private label products to target
demographic segments & attract most valuable shoppers
For further information or to arrange a comprehensive
presentation on consumer shopping patterns, please contact Todd Hale
at thale@acnielsen.com or
859-905-4615.
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Gluten-Free Certification Offers Assurances to Consumers, Marketing Tool to Manufacturers
The Gluten Intolerance Group (GIG) created a "Gluten Free
Certification", which is designed to provide third party assurances
to affected consumers that the products they are buying and eating
can safely be purchased and eaten. According to GIG, "Certification
is a yearly process based on ingredient review, on-site inspection
and product testing. Some facilities require multiple unannounced
inspections throughout the year."
Gluten are the storage proteins found in all grains, and a
growing number of people are afflicted with a medical condition that
makes it impossible for their systems to absorb gluten when it is
consumed. Some studies put the number at as many as one in every 150
people.
People who have been diagnosed with this condition - usually
known as but not limited to celiac disease, or gluten intolerance -
and have been told by their physicians to cut gluten out of their
diets are now seeking out gluten-free food. And the number is
growing significantly.
Total sales of gluten-free products have, in fact, almost doubled
since 2001. For the 52 weeks ending February 2, 2002, gluten-free
products generated a total of $287.4 million in sales, compared to
$434.2 million in sales last year. Unit volume also is up - from 84
million in the period ending in February 2002 to 158.3 million last
year. Equivalized unit volume for the entire category, however, is
off 3.4 percent for the just completed year.
The biggest increases, in terms of equivalized unit volume, have
come from among the following categories during the past year,
according to statistics compiled by ACNielsen:
Snacks/Potato Chips: + 229,558 percent
Frozen Novelties: + 35,591 percent
Frozen/Chilled Sauces/Gravies: + 9673 percent
Baking Powder: + 2322 percent
Fruit Spreads: + 7804 percent
Noodles/Dumplings: + 8559 percent
A look at these categories suggests that consumers with a gluten
intolerance are in fact looking for products that will bring a little
interest and spice to their gastronomic lives. None of these items
are staples, but they are items that are seeing enormous increases in
sales in part because the manufacturers are going where no one has
gone before, and in part because they are extremely relevant
categories for consumers who have been starving for attention.
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Health and value will click with consumers worldwide
The world's population is aging fast. This dynamic, coupled with
population shifts by region and inherent cultural differences by
market, will prompt international suppliers to approach consumers in
vastly different ways in the near future, suggests
Understanding Complexities of the Global Consumer, a new study
released by ACNielsen Global Services.
Some of these changes will be even more marked in the United
States. For example, the world's median age today is a young 27.6 -
with two-thirds of people (65%) in the 18-65 age group and just seven
percent who are 65 and older. Although Italy, Japan, Greece and
Sweden currently have higher rates of senior population than in the
U.S., our nation is a leader in this aging trend: Our median age is a
much higher 36.5, already 12 percent of our population is 65+ and
that share will rise to 20 percent of the population by 2030, notes
Jane Perrin, senior vice president and managing director of the
ACNielsen division.
As the century progresses, India will overtake China as the most
populous nation, with 1.6 billion people to China's 1.4 billion by
2050. The U.S. will be third, dwarfed at 420 million, and several
African nations will rise into the top ten, as stated in the study.
Another dimension: Europe will have 70 million less people, and
Africa will have almost a billion more by 2050.
As global retailers, led by Wal-Mart, Carrefour, Metro Group,
Ahold and Tesco, charge into these markets, they're encountering
consumers who are far more concerned about their economies, job
security and health than any other issues. Indeed, among the North
American and European populations, 20 percent cite health as their
number one concern and 42 percent say it is number two; these rates
set the pace internationally, the study shows. Older people not only
dwell more on health issues, but they stretch their limited incomes
by buying private labels, and that contributes further to deeper
worldwide penetration.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Globally, 68 percent of all consumers agreed that "supermarket
brands are good alternatives," according to the report. In 26
countries out of 38 studied in 2005, private label growth outpaced
that of manufacturer brands by a 5:2 margin.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Seniors' disease concerns create opportunities to sell foods,
beverages and personal care products that enhance health. Concerns
about diabetes and obesity, for example, have gone so far as to
prompt domestic introductions of snack packs with inner wraps that
help curb compulsive consumption, and soft drinks without artificial
preservatives. The five fastest-growth categories globally all have a
health bent: soymilk, drinkable yogurt, sports energy drinks,
complete fresh ready meals, and cereal/fruit/muesli bars.
Anti-aging appearance items are also hot: facial moisturizers
are up seven percent globally in the year ended Q1 2005, and teeth
whiteners set the pace in personal care, up 48 percent, the study
reports.
Consumer aging affects retail settings as well, and the Austrian
chain Adeg Aktiv Markt has already taken steps to reduce lighting
glare, make floors slip-proof, widen aisles, and keep products within
easy reach to keep attracting older shoppers.
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Sports fans' product purchases linked by specific interests means increased sales
Retailers have a keen interest in America's growing obsession with
sports. Many are involved with sponsorships large and small - from
brand exposure on NASCAR vehicles to name sponsorship at golf and
tennis events all the way down to signage at minor league and youth
league venues. All are involved in executing store-level brand
promotions targeted at aficionados of the various sports.
FANLinks(TM), a service from Nielsen Ventures using
ACNielsen Homescan Panel data, has the ability to quantify shoppers'
interests in various sporting enterprises, as well as what products
they prefer, and in which channel of trade they prefer to purchase
those products.
By fielding a survey to 34,000 ACNielsen Homescan panelists,
FANLinks(TM) is able to determine the product preferences
among the followers of each sport, as well as the degree of interest
the consumer has in the various athletic pursuits. That makes it
easier for the marketer and retailer to determine which sports to use
as promotional vehicles, and where to use the promotions most
effectively.
One might assume that it would be a no-brainer to draw a
relationship between baseball and peanuts. While this may very well
be true, it would be foolish to limit promoting peanut sales to
baseball fans only - and excluding of all the rest.
"We recently pulled some numbers on the nuts category, and ran
them across PGA fans versus NASCAR fans," notes Ann Marie Dumais,
vice president of marketing, Nielsen Ventures. "While the overall
category indexed somewhat flat, when we drilled down further we found
that Planter's Peanuts indexed quite well across the PGA Tour's fan
base."
FANLinks(TM) recently found that the connection between
baseball fans and the razor/blade category is extremely strong. Major
League Baseball fans spend $348 each year on CPG products, and spend
$593 million annually on blades and razors alone. Moreover, Schick
products fared particularly well among baseball fans, growing 85
percent among that fan base from 2004 to 2005 as opposed to its 73
percent average overall growth.
FANLinks(TM) gives the retailer a tool using empirical data to
gauge which sports-related promotions would be most effective among
his shoppers - and which might not be so effective.
As example, a manufacturer tells the retailer that they are about
to launch a huge NASCAR promotion and display. With this analysis we
can find out if a specific chain does - or doesn't - have a large
amount of NASCAR fans as shoppers. If they do not, this promotion
would be a waste of space and money. As a result, the brand should be
using a more generic end cap display, versus a lifestyle sports
fan-specific display.
FANLinks(TM) currently only identifies which channel of trade
each sports fan prefers to buy various products in. However, the
survey can easily be modified so that specific stores could be
indicated.
Retailers can also use this tool the same way that advertisers do
- to plan and optimize the way they execute sponsorships. It can also
tell them how to optimize their shelf space and floor space to match
the lifestyles of the sports fan base of those people shopping in
that chain or that store.
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Ethnic brings new zest to produce,
a key factor in where people shop
Produce, the showpiece department of many supermarkets, is taking on
a more ethnic character in response to the rapid growth of Hispanic
and Asian populations and buying power in the United States. The
result is not only greater appeal to these surging subgroups, but a
flow of exotic fruits and vegetables from far-flung nations that
general market consumers can trial and eventually accept.
Mangoes, papayas and avocadoes once crossed this bridge and are
now part of mainstream displays. Today, colorful chili peppers,
beans, melons and eggplants are among varieties attempting the same
crossover today.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
They bring a welcome taste of the homeland to recently
acculturated emigrants, and add a fresh zest to produce displays,
which are so key to where people decide to shop: "An astonishing 47
percent of general consumers have changed their entire shopping
patterns from one supermarket to another based solely on the quality
of the fresh fruits and vegetables one offers over the other," says
Dan Henderson, director of market research at the Produce Marketing
Association.
Hispanics place an even higher priority on "fresh, high quality
fruits" than U.S. shoppers overall: 97 percent rate it a "very
important grocery feature" versus 87 percent among the broader
population base, states the PMA's
Hispanic and Fresh Produce report.
This keen consumer focus on consistent produce quality dictate
the stores that will win more visits - particularly among Hispanics
who are projected to grow steadily from 15 percent of the U.S.
populace in 2000 to 24 percent in 2050, according to the U.S. Census
Bureau. While two-thirds (67%) of the Hispanic population in the U.S.
is of Mexican origin, there's a synergy in Mexico having supplied 66
percent of U.S. imported fresh vegetables in 2004, according to
Census Bureau and USDA Foreign Agricultural Service data.
By contrast, Latin America provided 90 percent of U.S. imported
fruits in 2004, and Mexico supplied 12 percent of that. Among the
highest contributors: 99 percent of imported strawberries and 98
percent of imported limes came from Mexico, 99 percent of imported
peaches and 94 percent of imported plums came from Chile, the report
showed.
Overall, imports accounted for 44 percent of the U.S. fruit
supply and 16 percent of the U.S. vegetable supply in 2004, said the
USDA Economic Research Service.
Hispanics are attractive customers because they cook dinner at
home 5.6 times a week and spend 47 percent more on produce than the
general market consumer: $228 annually versus a national average of
$157 and a non-Hispanic tally of $152, stated the PMA's
Hispanics and Fresh Produce report. Adds Henderson:
"Hispanics do their produce shopping at the supermarket 72 percent of
the time, and at supercenters and mass merchants 16 percent of the
time, so they're generally satisfied with product availability."
To entice more trial of new items, PMA research indicates that
people want more taste tests and staff on hand who can speak of
nutritional value, how to store, how to cook, and how to make
products viable for them. Henderson observes that many consumers
first encounter these ethnic tastes in restaurants and want to be
able to replicate those positive experiences.
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Innovation brings an upturn to hair color
There's little that boomers hate more than looking old. Witness the
growth of popular products that help shape, color, smooth, energize
or otherwise enhance the appearance of middle-agers. Hair color is
such a prominent clock-stopper - once the nearly exclusive province
of women, but no longer as former athletes now pitch major brands to
men - that it has rebounded this past year to over $1.0 billion in
sales in food-drug-mass stores (excluding Wal-Mart) after three
straight years of decline.
FDM category dollars had slipped from $1.1 billion in 2001 to
$997 million in 2004 before the welcome uptick in 2005. ACNielsen
Strategic Planner data show FDM dollar volume in hair color rose 2.1
percent in the 52 weeks ended Feb. 25, 2006, and ended the streak of
consecutive annual dips of 4.0 percent, 3.4 percent and 5.4 percent.
Those yearly declines might indicate share taken by Wal-Mart and
specialty shops rather than any cooling ardor for the category. The
evidence: ACNielsen Homescan data shows that women ages 35-44 over
index at 125 and women ages 45-54 over index at 153, and that more
than two-thirds of women's hair color dollar sales occur at mass
merchants and supercenters.
Moreover, manufacturers steadily expanded the category SKU count
by 18 percent, from 1,891 in 2001 to 2,230 in early 2006. Notable is
how they did it by introducing many new items in each successive
year: 337 in 2001, 407 in 2002, 490 in 2003 and 316 in the 52 weeks
ended February 25, 2006, reported ACNielsen. Astoundingly, this means
that more than 1,500 items brought to market in the past half-decade
dominate the category's current assortment. There's been a
significant rotation of what's on the shelf. This powerful dynamic
reflects manufacturer innovation in colors and formulas, a fresh
demand for today's newer looks, and consumer acceptance from known
sources such as Clairol, L'Oreal and Revlon.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Not surprisingly, most of this activity occurred on the women's
side - where yearly launches averaged 347 and total SKUs grew from
1,687 to 1,943. By contrast, men's annual launches averaged 16 and
total SKUs edged up from 113 to 139.
This clearly isn't the sign of a stagnant business, which is
overwhelmingly branded because of the category's innovative nature:
Of the billion-dollars in sales, just $1.4 million occurred in
private label hair color in 2004, show the latest available ACNielsen
Scantrack figures. That's one-tenth of one percent.
Of the total category in FDM, the women's segment accounts for
$897 million, up 2.7 percent in the latest 52 weeks; men's is $118
million, down 1.8 percent; costume is $3 million, down 15.6 percent,
according to ACNielsen Strategic Planner.
Equivalized unit volume data follow a similar pattern to dollar
sales in the women's, men's and costume segments of hair color.
Women's velocity dropped steadily from 151.3 million units in 2001 to
130.6 million units in 2004 before rebounding by 2.3 percent to 133.6
million units in the latest 52 weeks. Men's took a straight path
downward from 17.6 million units in 2001 to 17.3 million units in the
latest period. Costume dipped from 1.8 million units to 1.2 million
over the five-year stretch.
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DIET FOODS PART III: Carb Conscious Craze Dies Out, Takes Product Sales With It
Has there ever been a diet craze that peaked and then flamed out as
fast as the low-carbohydrate mania that infected the general
population just a few years ago?
It certainly is hard to imagine one. It seems like it was just
yesterday that the benefits of a low carb lifestyle were being
discussed on talk shows and news programs throughout America, that
low carb foods were crowding supermarket shelves, and that
restaurants were overhauling their menus to cater to customers
looking to avoid carbohydrates at almost any cost.
But like all crazes, low carb has settled into being a relatively
minor trend...and the sales of carb conscious foods are actually in
decline. After years of enormous growth - up 18.7 percent in 2002,
53.4 percent in 2003, and 202.5 percent in 2004 - total sales of carb
conscious foods, in terms of equivalized unit volume, were down 7.6
percent last year to about $2.2 billion.
This is hardly a surprise. After all, various studies have shown
that as much as ten percent of US adults said they were trying to cut
back on carbohydrates just a few years ago, and now it is down to
just two or three percent. While the late Dr. Robert Atkins was
something of a diet deity a few years ago, today his name is hardly
more influential than that of the late Dr. Herman Tarnower. (Tarnower
invented the Scarsdale Diet back in the late seventies, and becomes
part of the cultural zeitgeist every few years when someone decides
to do a movie about his murder by his mistress. Atkins hasn't been
as lucky in the scandal department since he died of head injuries
incurred when he slipped on some ice.)
The decline in sales for some carb conscious foods has been
nothing short of precipitous, especially after years in almost every
case where there have been consistent and at least double-digit
growth. Refrigerated sales were down 7.5 percent to $45.4 million;
ice cream was down 19.5 percent to $125.8 million; frozen novelties
were down 19.6 percent to $208.5 million; fresh bread sales were
down 25.2 percent last year to $85.3 million; multi-vitamins were
down 25.4 percent to $47 million; nutritional supplements are down
38.3 percent to $187.8 million; and diet aids were down 41.4 percent
to $203.2 million.
Now, this isn't to suggest that there haven't been any increases
in the low carb segment. Tortillas marketed as carb conscious
actually were up 3.5 percent last year to $441.7 million, while shelf
stable fruit drinks were up 25.3 percent to $120.3 million.
Refrigerated fruit drinks seem to retain much of their appeal,
generating $106.4 million in sales for a 112 percent increase over
the previous year.
This report is part of a four month series looking at activity in a number of dietary categories, including calorie count, carbohydrate count, glycemic index and fat content.
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ACNielsen estimates that in 2005, over $1.6 billion was spent
across all retail channels in the charcoal, logs, accessories
category which includes charcoal, fireplace logs, matches, wood
chips-cooking, charcoal/wood lighters, and heat-canned. The Memorial
Day and Independence Day holiday weeks typically generate the
greatest dollar volume.
The following slides indicate the percentage of households
who buy each type of charcoal, logs, accessories, a sampling of
higher indexing household types who buy products in the overall
charcoal, logs, accessories category, and channel share of category
dollar sales.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Facts, Figures and the Future is copyrighted and may not be
reproduced without prior permission. For more information about the
publication, please contact Phil Lempert at 323-860-3070 or via
e-mail at
PLempert@FactsFiguresFuture.com
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