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New Food Guidelines Offer
New Opportunities for Brands
AND Retailers
Late last month, the long-awaited recommendations of The US
Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee were released. The panel's
recommendations are important for every food retailer and brand as
they will shape our government's nutrition programs (including
research, education, food assistance) and, most important, the labels
that go on food products, and the nutrition claims these products
will be allowed to promote.
There will be some significant changes come 2005, when the final
version is due for release.
-- Americans should consume only about a teaspoon of salt each
day, or less than 2,300 milligrams daily
-- Fish should be eaten at least twice a week, so that Americans
get enough omega-3 fatty acids
-- Intake of partially hydrogenated oils (trans fats) should be
below one percent of total calories
-- The committee also recommended that Americans pay attention to
calorie consumption in order to control weight, and "be careful"
about carbohydrate and sugar consumption. The committee suggests
that the best way to cut down on calories is to reduce intake of
saturated fat, added sugars, and alcohol
-- Fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and milk products all are
important to a healthy diet
-- Physical activity: Adults trying to lose weight should
exercise as much as 90 minutes a day; adults who are not overweight
should exercise a half-hour each day; and 60 minutes of physical
activity is recommended for children.
The new recommendations will receive major coverage in the mass
media. For retailers this offers a unique opportunity to strengthen
relationships with shoppers by helping them navigate through these
changes via store tours, seminars, on-line and printed information.
For brands, the same opportunity exists along with the opportunity to
utilize more specific and clearer labeling, especially in the arena
of "low carb".
The final version of the guidelines, developed by both the US
Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Health and
Human Services (HHS), are scheduled to be released in 2005. For the
committee's full report
click here.
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ACNielsen's latest Private Label Trends Report is now available. For
information,
click here.

Warehouse Clubs have established themselves as a major retail channel
that is here to stay. Find out everything you need to know about the
consumers who shop this channel in ACNielsen's latest study.
Click Here
for more details.

The FMI/Rodale Shopping for Health survey of consumers is available.
Click here for more details.

ACNielsen's 13th Annual Survey of Trade Promotion Practices is
available for $495.
Click here for more
details.
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September 13, 2004
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Inside the Minds of Your Shoppers
Despite all the research we conduct, the entire industry still
grapples with the mystery of understanding why shoppers behave the
way they do.
Thanks to a new tool available to all retailers, they might have
a way of better understanding what drives shopper behavior to help
retailers and suppliers have a new level of discussions on how to
better serve customers' needs.
The tool, which comes in the form of an Internet based appraisal,
and the accompanying report into the motives and mindsets of today's
shoppers, was crafted by the Coca-Cola Retailing Research Council.
Presented at FMI's Annual Convention in May, the report and tool are
accessible through the Internet to any operator.
The report was developed following an exhaustive process of
meeting, interviewing and probing shoppers on what drives specific
shopping trips. Rather than examining demographic trends, the study
looks into the various states of mind that might cause a shopper to
select one store or another.
From the data, nine "need states" were identified -- from stock
up shopping trips to quick fill-in; from balancing family needs to
outright bargain hunting. Data is provided to show the relative size
and importance of each group, along with some of the key likes and
dislikes of each group.
Council member Kevin Davis, CEO of 11-store Bristol Farms Market
in California, thinks any-sized operator can find benefit by using
the study quickly and honestly. "Any operator who uses the tool to
its full capacity, by answering all of the questions about themselves
and their competitors honestly and fairly, will get a clear appraisal
of their own stores' potential against the competition." Davis says
the tool can help a retailer build a more realistic strategy for
improved sales and profits.
The report helps lay out some of the challenges retailers face in
understanding today's complex shoppers.
Retailers can access the information at the Council website,
www.ccrrc.org, under the section for
the North American council. Simply request an access code. (In
the name of full disclosure: the author is a member of the
Council.)
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RFID Update
On a warm June morning in 1974, a retail revolution unfolded when
a Marsh supermarket in Ohio scanned a package of Wrigley's Chewing
Gum, ushering in a new era of customer service and data collection. A
potentially more compelling technology, RFID, could remove the wall
between supply and demand.
By next year, Wal-Mart, Target, Albertsons, and even the
Department of Defense will require case and pallet tagging by vendors
in order to track products into distribution centers and even
throughout the supply chain. But the true paradigm shift is being
able to link information from the supply side to in-store movement
information which could dramatically reduce out-of-stocks, avoid
product counterfeiting, cut shrink and provide valuable insights into
what consumers really want.
But item-level RFID tagging is years away from widespread use in
the EC or in the U.S. The cost of the tags must be cut to pennies in
order to be economically feasible, and RFID infrastructures need to
be built one system at a time. Going forward, consumer privacy is
also an issue but can be dealt with if the industry is as diligent as
it has been with loyalty card data.
Meanwhile, ACNielsen, an active member of the EPCglobal Business
Action Group, has participated in RFID technology since it was
launched several years ago by MIT's Auto-ID Center. And if it
progresses as expected, we can look forward to automatic out-of-stock
alerts that will reduce brand switching and help adjust assortment to
achieve optimal shelf sets. We could also provide manufacturers and
retailers with "real time" product forecasting at the store level and
develop different plans for execution of customer-specific
promotions.
This is not the age of Big Brother as some detractors fear.
Rather, it is a new era of retail anthropology. It is technology that
will lead not only to greater efficiencies within the industry but a
more rewarding shopping experience for consumers.
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Organics Now Mainstream
According to the most recent ACNielsen LabelTrends(TM) Organic Foods
report for the 52 week period ending 7/10/04, sales of organic food
and non-alcoholic beverages in the combined grocery/drug/mass
merchandise channels(excluding Wal-Mart) totaled $2.7 billion. Based
on this data, the Organic segment now represents 1.2 percent of all
food and non-alcoholic beverage sales.
Organic offerings are now found in 393 of the 633 total food and
beverage categories that are tracked by ACNielsen, underscoring how
pervasive organics have become in all grocery outlets.
Dollar sales of organics have grown at the combined rate of 84
percent over the past four years (as compared to total food and
beverage products growing at just 12 percent over the same time
period). Last year, Organic product sales (12.5%) grew more than
eight times faster than total food and beverage products, which
hovered at just 1.5 percent.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Looking at the Ten Largest Organic Categories reveals that all
are perishable, highlighting the need for retailers to clearly
differentiate their organic and non-organic product sales areas and
use these areas to cross promote with other shelf-stable organic
categories through signage, off-shelf display and sampling.
Click on thumbnails to enlarge
Use this link if you've received the text version
for graph one (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Sept04organics1.jpg) and
this link for graph two (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Sept04organics2.jpg)
The Fastest Growing Organic Categories show that the consumer is
now accepting organics in those mass-oriented categories including
tomato juice, coffee, ice cream, potato chips, meats and sausage.
Clearly, the threat of Mad Cow Disease has helped the latter
categories, but in the former categories it is safe to assume that
people are moving towards these to reduce their exposure to
pesticides and hormones in particular.
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Wine: Domestic vs. Imported
In 2003, US wine consumption reached its highest level in 17 years
despite a sluggish economy, with table wines showing the largest
gains. Per capita consumption of wine is now 2.98 gallons per adult,
according to government figures. While the unit volume of Domestic
Table Wine is a bit more than four times that of Imported Table Wine.
Over the past 52 week period ending 7/03/04 the imports registered a
12 percent increase in volume versus a practically flat market for
the domestics, according to ACNielsen Beverage Trends. It is
interesting that the imports did so much better than domestics,
especially considering the popularity of extreme value domestics.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Australia is the big winner in the table wine import category
with an increase of 44 percent and market share of 7.5 percent. Sales
of French wines across all categories continue to fall since the War
in Iraq, registering a year to date decrease of nearly 13 percent.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
The wine varietals which show the most growth are lead by
Shiraz/Syrah with an increase of 38.3 percent compared to the
previous year, followed by Pinot Grigio/Gris (17 percent) and Pinot
Noir (15.6 percent). Australia, New Zealand and South Africa have
produced excellent wines in these varietals at reasonable prices.
Predictions are that these countries will continue to increase their
market share based on the consumer acceptance and demand. Chardonnay
continues to be the varietal leader with an almost 21 percent share.
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New Qualified Health Claim for Omega-3 Fatty Acids
The Food and Drug Administration announced last week the new
qualified health claim for omega-3 fatty acids. The health claim is
specifically related to cardiovascular health and conventional foods
that contain eiscosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid
(DHA) omega-3 fatty acids. In early September, the US Dietary
Guidelines Advisory Committee released its long awaited
recommendations, which included one that fish should be consumed at
least twice a week (or 12 ounces) in order for Americans to get
enough omega-3 fatty acids.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
The FDA feels that the new claim for omega-3 fatty acids will
empower consumers by giving them knowledge to identify foods that
contain these important compounds, which have been proven to reduce
the risk of heart disease (FDA reports there are approximately
500,000 deaths a year related to coronary disease).
A qualified health claim on a conventional food must be supported
by credible scientific evidence. While the research is not conclusive
and studies will continue, the FDA intends to exercise its
enforcement discretion with respect to the following qualified health
claim:
"Supportive but not conclusive research shows that consumption of EPA and DHA omega-3 fatty acids may reduce the risk of coronary heart disease. One serving of [name of food] provides [x] grams of EPA and DHA omega-3 fatty acids. [See nutrition information for total fat, saturated fat and cholesterol content.]
For more information about the omega-3 fatty acid qualified
health claim
click here.
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Low-Carb New Product Launches Slow to 1.2%
Over the past 52 weeks, ending 7/10/04, low-carb designated SKUs have
been growing at the combined rate of 11.1 percent each month. Latest
reporting from ACNielsen shows that in the month of July this
segment's new product introductions has dropped to just 1.2.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
As more Americans settle in to their lower-carb lifestyle, many
shoppers have found their products of choice or, through insightful
label reading, have been able to shift to lower-carb traditional
products.
Since President Clinton's hospitalization, some of the other diet
plans, including Pritikin, have embarked on an aggressive campaign to
attempt to shift dieters away from low-carb to low-fat. Many low-fat
products already exist on the supermarket shelves, but low-carb
marketing took diet foods to a new more sophisticated level - expect
the low-fat brands to have learned from the experience and begin to
market their products in much the same high profile model.
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Economic Snapshot: Insights Behind The Earnings
With the 2nd quarter earnings season winding down, average gains
across all companies within the S&P 500 are once again coming in at
over 20 percent vs. year ago, which is the 4th straight qtr over 20
percent. What follows is a topline review of qtrly results generated
from the 35+ retailers across the classes of trade that ACNielsen
tracks, including Food, Drug, Discount, Club, Dollar, Convenience,
Home Improvement, Pet, Office Supply, Online, Toy and Consumer.
Snapshot Findings: As expected, Wal-Mart led in
qtrly sales with a reported net income of $2.7 billion and total
sales of $69 billion. The nearest retailer was Home Depot with total
sales over $20 billion. In terms of percent change in total sales,
e-commerce retailers eBay and Amazon - up 59 percent and 26 percent -
were the leaders. Whole Foods also showed a strong gain of 22
percent. A ranking of the key same store sales benchmark illustrated
once again Whole Foods' strengths (+14%) followed by Costco (+11%)
and Walgreens (+10.4%).
Select Channel Insights:
Food - The eight leading food retailers saw a continuation
of moderate to low levels of total and same store sales growth as
pressure from Wal-Mart's focus on food and declining grocery channel
shopper frequency continued. The exception was the solid performance
of Whole Foods, which reported a 15 percent earnings gain.
Drug - The performance of Drug retailers appears to
exhibit a correlation between geographic coverage and sales results.
The larger national players such as Walgreens, CVS, and Rite Aid
outperformed the regional retailers such as Longs.
Discounters - While each of the big three (Wal-Mart, Kmart
and Target) reported positive net income gains, the interesting
takeaways were how Target performed vs. Wal-Mart, as it is generally
more insulated from rising gas prices and Kmart's fifth straight
quarter of double digit sales declines.
Club - Stellar gains were reported across all three major
club retailers with double-digit gains in earnings and total store
sales. Additionally, strong same store sales were reported as Sam's
continues its impressive turnaround from 2003.
Dollar - The four leading dollar store retailers continue
to generate strong total sales gains due to the tremendous rate of
store openings. The business decision confronting these retailers in
the immediate future is how to raise same store sales. Strategies
such as increasing store size and expanding product offerings appear
to be having a positive effect as the channel leaders seek to appeal
to a broader consumer base.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
For further insight into the State Of The U.S Economy and its
impact on the CPG industry, Please contact James Russo at ACNielsen
at 516-429-8086 or
james.russo@acnielsen.com.
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The Beat Goes On
Store growth from Wal-Mart Supercenters and retailers in the Dollar
Store channel are continuing to have a major impact on how U.S.
households shop. Insights from the recently-released mid-year
ACNielsen Homescan syndicated suite show the Dollar Store channel
enjoying gains in household penetration -- from 66 percent of U.S
households in calendar year 2003 to 68 percent of households for the
year ending June 2004. This is a gain of over two million
households. At the same time, Supercenters (defined as Kmart, Target
and Wal-Mart Supercenters) saw penetration reach 55 percent -- a gain
of over 1 million shopping households. Given that most of Wal-Mart's
Supercenter expansion has come from conversions of their regular
Discount store format, we can expect to see continued growth in their
shopper base as they open stores in new markets and expand their
store count in existing markets.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
As we saw at the end of 2003, store expansion within the
Supercenter channel is also driving growth in shopping frequency
within the channel. The average Supercenter shopper made 26 shopping
trips to the channel for the year ending June 2004 -- an increase of
one trip from calendar 2003 and five trips from 2001. Over this same
time period, trips to both the Grocery and Mass-Merchandiser channels
have declined five and three trips respectively. For the Mass
channel, Kmart's store closures, as well as Wal-Mart's store
conversions, are fueling this decline. Within the Grocery channel,
we know that Supercenter expansion is having a downward impact on
shopping frequency within Grocery stores. Value-conscious consumers
are flocking to Supercenters as stores become more available. Also,
other retailer channels (e.g. Dollar, Club, etc.) are leveraging the
power of fast-moving consumer goods to drive stronger shopping
frequency and larger basket rings in their stores.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
In terms of overall basket ring, the Supercenter channel has
experienced a $7.00 increase in per trip spending versus 2001. Over
this same time period, shopping baskets within the Grocery channel
are only up $1.00. Clearly, Supercenters are getting shoppers to
spend on both sides of the store, while baskets within the Grocery
channel have leveled off due to Grocery retailers lowering their
pricing to better compete with Wal-Mart's expansion efforts and
Supercenter shoppers using the Grocery channel for fill-in trips.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Among other news from the retail front:
Within the Grocery channel, Kroger has been quietly acquiring
stores from other chains as well as adding larger stores to their mix
to better compete against Supercenter expansion and grab a larger
share of the business in markets that they serve. They are also
experimenting with store formats that build off of the successes of
better-for-you retailers like Whole Foods.
Albertsons is rolling out their "10 for 10 mix and match program"
to offer their shoppers the treasure hunt that many U.S. consumers
value from the Dollar Store channel. An interesting aspect of this
program is that shoppers must shop the entire store - not a small
section - to take advantage of this program. This is an innovative
approach to drive traffic throughout a store. Albertsons is also
opening up a chain of "limited-assortment, deep discount" stores
similar to Save-A-Lot and Aldi (but larger).
Meijer has opened a 209,000 sq. ft.Supercenter with a greater
upscale focus.
For the Drug channel, Walgreens' store expansion and their
expanded number of stores open 24/7 is driving double-digit growth in
both total sales and same-store sales. The acquisition of 1,200
Eckerd stores by CVS is a clear example of a Drug retailer looking to
leverage store growth and take advantage of the aging population to
drive their Rx and front-end store sales.
Finally, bigger doesn't always lead to better. Both Food Lion
and Roundy's have rolled-out (or have announced plans to do so)
Grocery stores with greater focus on technology, service and the
perimeter of the store. Former Kohl's supermarket execs are planning
to open 30,000 sq. ft. Grocery stores that will focus on food and
customer service.
So, while Supercenter and Dollar Store growth is grabbing most of
the headlines these days, there are plenty of examples of other
retailers looking to re-invent and re-invigorate themselves.
For further information or to arrange a comprehensive
presentation on consumer shopping patterns, please contact Todd Hale
at thale@acnielsen.com or
859-905-4615.
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In-Store Kiosks: Great Technologies or Dead Wood?
New technologies are attempting to make shoppers' experiences better,
faster and more enjoyable. Examples are faster checkouts, on-demand
information, and even the ability to place deli orders throughout the
store to eliminate the wait. The results from a July
SupermarketGuru.com survey suggest, that in most cases, shoppers are
not likely to use these features.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
Of the four options offered, consumers were more likely to use
self-checkout machines than any other service. Although not included
in this survey, coin-counting machines also offer shoppers an easily
recognizable and immediate benefit. These kiosks also require
pre-planning by the shopper, which can reinforce the selection to
visit (and stay loyal to?) a particular retail destination. Most
kiosks have focused on the advanced technologies or content within,
perhaps ignoring the underlying rule of success:
"high-tech/high-touch"; and focusing on the consumer's (and not the
programmer's) benefit.
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Online Grocery Shopping Satisfaction
A July 2004 SupermarketGuru Quick Poll investigated where consumers
are shopping for groceries outside of the traditional grocery channel
of supermarkets. When asked, "Besides supermarkets, where else do
you shop for groceries?" the results were close with Warehouse Clubs
(33 percent), Big Discounters such as Wal-Mart, Target, Kmart, etc.
(35 percent), and Small specialty food shops such as delis, cheese
shops, butchers/seafood shops, and fresh take-out shops (32 percent).
When our panel of 1,343 shoppers (85 percent female) were asked if
they had ever shopped for groceries online, a majority (85 percent)
answered "no"; underscoring the still underdeveloped channel for
groceries.
Of those 15 percent that answered that they had shopped online,
we surveyed their satisfaction with different aspects of their
shopping experience.
Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
"Freshness" continues to be a major driver for shoppers across
all food channels. To the credit of the online grocers that our
consumer panel experienced, only a total of nine percent of shoppers
felt "unsatisfied" or "very unsatisfied"; adding credibility to the
freshness marketing approach that many of them continue to use in the
advertising and promotional materials (including delivery vehicles).
One of the most surprising findings was that when asked, "If your
favorite supermarket offered online shopping, would you order from
there exclusively?" eighty percent answered, "no." This is an
indication that the traditional bricks & mortar retailer still has
work to do to win over consumer confidence on the Internet. While
many supermarkets continue to offer the "high value coupon" trial
model created by the now defunct online grocers including WebVan;
this response indicates that the key to online success may be
elsewhere. In-store demonstrations of online ordering alongside
advertising that promotes friendly and safe delivery personnel could
have a much greater effect than a coupon - after all - a coupon, even
if its worth $20, doesn't have any impact if it's never redeemed.
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COUNTRY-TO-COUNTRY: Fastest Growing Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverage Categories in China
In the US, the Bottled Water category has risen in the rankings as
the water brands battle it out and have reduced pricing. While base
sales of Refrigerated Meal Starters is still in its infancy at $28
million, the past year has shown it doubling in size; reinforcing
that the large opportunity for these types of preparation ingredients
rests in the refrigerated section rather than on the grocery aisles.
Fresh eggs, which have moved from a commodity into branded products,
continue to generate strong dollar sales growth as a result of smart
marketing, branding and turning eggs into a value-added product by
adding vitamins and eliminating growth hormones.
China, long thought of as the land of opportunity for packaged
goods, reports a huge growth in beverage sales. Notable is the growth
of Instant Coffee, which may lead to a significant opportunity for
the latest "pod" coffee machines and products (skipping the whole
bean trend altogether). Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks' growth challenges
the conventional wisdom of Asian dairy consumption habits and has a
huge opportunity for continued growth as this category continues on
its packaging and flavor innovation track.
Click on thumbnails to enlarge
Use this link if you've received the text version
for graph one (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Sept04c2c1.jpg) and this
link for graph two (
http://www.factsfiguresfuture.com/enlarged/Setp04c2c2.jpg)
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ACNielsen estimates that in 2003 over $3 billion was spent across all
retail channels in the Breakfast Food category, which includes
breakfast bars, granola & yogurt bars, powdered instant breakfasts,
and refrigerated/frozen toaster pastries. The following slides
indicate the percentage of households who buy each type of breakfast
food, a sampling of higher indexing household types who buy products
in the overall Breakfast Food category, and channel share of category
dollar sales.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Click on thumbnail to enlarge, or click here.
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Facts, Figures and the Future is copyrighted and may not be
reproduced without prior permission. For more information about the
publication, please contact Phil Lempert at 323-860-3070 or via
e-mail at
PLempert@FactsFiguresFuture.com
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