New Food Guidelines Offer
New Opportunities for Brands
AND Retailers


Late last month, the long-awaited recommendations of The US Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee were released. The panel's recommendations are important for every food retailer and brand as they will shape our government's nutrition programs (including research, education, food assistance) and, most important, the labels that go on food products, and the nutrition claims these products will be allowed to promote.

There will be some significant changes come 2005, when the final version is due for release.

-- Americans should consume only about a teaspoon of salt each day, or less than 2,300 milligrams daily

-- Fish should be eaten at least twice a week, so that Americans get enough omega-3 fatty acids

-- Intake of partially hydrogenated oils (trans fats) should be below one percent of total calories

-- The committee also recommended that Americans pay attention to calorie consumption in order to control weight, and "be careful" about carbohydrate and sugar consumption. The committee suggests that the best way to cut down on calories is to reduce intake of saturated fat, added sugars, and alcohol

-- Fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and milk products all are important to a healthy diet

-- Physical activity: Adults trying to lose weight should exercise as much as 90 minutes a day; adults who are not overweight should exercise a half-hour each day; and 60 minutes of physical activity is recommended for children.

The new recommendations will receive major coverage in the mass media. For retailers this offers a unique opportunity to strengthen relationships with shoppers by helping them navigate through these changes via store tours, seminars, on-line and printed information. For brands, the same opportunity exists along with the opportunity to utilize more specific and clearer labeling, especially in the arena of "low carb".

The final version of the guidelines, developed by both the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), are scheduled to be released in 2005. For the committee's full report click here.

Organics Now Mainstream
Wine: Domestic vs. Imported
New Qualified Health Claim for Omega-3 Fatty Acids
Low-Carb New Product Launches Slow to 1.2%
Economic Snapshot: Insights Behind The Earnings
The Beat Goes On
In-Store Kiosks: Great Technologies or Dead Wood?
Online Grocery Shopping Satisfaction
COUNTRY-TO-COUNTRY: Fastest Growing Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverage Categories in China
Channel Watch


ACNielsen's latest Private Label Trends Report is now available. For information, click here.

Warehouse Clubs have established themselves as a major retail channel that is here to stay. Find out everything you need to know about the consumers who shop this channel in ACNielsen's latest study. Click Here for more details.


The FMI/Rodale Shopping for Health survey of consumers is available.
Click here
for more details.
ACNielsen's 13th Annual Survey of Trade Promotion Practices is available for $495. Click here for more details.



September 13, 2004


Inside the Minds of Your Shoppers

Despite all the research we conduct, the entire industry still grapples with the mystery of understanding why shoppers behave the way they do.

Thanks to a new tool available to all retailers, they might have a way of better understanding what drives shopper behavior to help retailers and suppliers have a new level of discussions on how to better serve customers' needs.

The tool, which comes in the form of an Internet based appraisal, and the accompanying report into the motives and mindsets of today's shoppers, was crafted by the Coca-Cola Retailing Research Council. Presented at FMI's Annual Convention in May, the report and tool are accessible through the Internet to any operator.

The report was developed following an exhaustive process of meeting, interviewing and probing shoppers on what drives specific shopping trips. Rather than examining demographic trends, the study looks into the various states of mind that might cause a shopper to select one store or another.

From the data, nine "need states" were identified -- from stock up shopping trips to quick fill-in; from balancing family needs to outright bargain hunting. Data is provided to show the relative size and importance of each group, along with some of the key likes and dislikes of each group.

Council member Kevin Davis, CEO of 11-store Bristol Farms Market in California, thinks any-sized operator can find benefit by using the study quickly and honestly. "Any operator who uses the tool to its full capacity, by answering all of the questions about themselves and their competitors honestly and fairly, will get a clear appraisal of their own stores' potential against the competition." Davis says the tool can help a retailer build a more realistic strategy for improved sales and profits.

The report helps lay out some of the challenges retailers face in understanding today's complex shoppers.

Retailers can access the information at the Council website, www.ccrrc.org, under the section for the North American council. Simply request an access code. (In the name of full disclosure: the author is a member of the Council.)

 

RFID Update

On a warm June morning in 1974, a retail revolution unfolded when a Marsh supermarket in Ohio scanned a package of Wrigley's Chewing Gum, ushering in a new era of customer service and data collection. A potentially more compelling technology, RFID, could remove the wall between supply and demand.

By next year, Wal-Mart, Target, Albertsons, and even the Department of Defense will require case and pallet tagging by vendors in order to track products into distribution centers and even throughout the supply chain. But the true paradigm shift is being able to link information from the supply side to in-store movement information which could dramatically reduce out-of-stocks, avoid product counterfeiting, cut shrink and provide valuable insights into what consumers really want.

But item-level RFID tagging is years away from widespread use in the EC or in the U.S. The cost of the tags must be cut to pennies in order to be economically feasible, and RFID infrastructures need to be built one system at a time. Going forward, consumer privacy is also an issue but can be dealt with if the industry is as diligent as it has been with loyalty card data.

Meanwhile, ACNielsen, an active member of the EPCglobal Business Action Group, has participated in RFID technology since it was launched several years ago by MIT's Auto-ID Center. And if it progresses as expected, we can look forward to automatic out-of-stock alerts that will reduce brand switching and help adjust assortment to achieve optimal shelf sets. We could also provide manufacturers and retailers with "real time" product forecasting at the store level and develop different plans for execution of customer-specific promotions.

This is not the age of Big Brother as some detractors fear. Rather, it is a new era of retail anthropology. It is technology that will lead not only to greater efficiencies within the industry but a more rewarding shopping experience for consumers.


Organics Now Mainstream
According to the most recent ACNielsen LabelTrends(TM) Organic Foods report for the 52 week period ending 7/10/04, sales of organic food and non-alcoholic beverages in the combined grocery/drug/mass merchandise channels(excluding Wal-Mart) totaled $2.7 billion. Based on this data, the Organic segment now represents 1.2 percent of all food and non-alcoholic beverage sales.

Organic offerings are now found in 393 of the 633 total food and beverage categories that are tracked by ACNielsen, underscoring how pervasive organics have become in all grocery outlets.

Dollar sales of organics have grown at the combined rate of 84 percent over the past four years (as compared to total food and beverage products growing at just 12 percent over the same time period). Last year, Organic product sales (12.5%) grew more than eight times faster than total food and beverage products, which hovered at just 1.5 percent.


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Looking at the Ten Largest Organic Categories reveals that all are perishable, highlighting the need for retailers to clearly differentiate their organic and non-organic product sales areas and use these areas to cross promote with other shelf-stable organic categories through signage, off-shelf display and sampling.












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The Fastest Growing Organic Categories show that the consumer is now accepting organics in those mass-oriented categories including tomato juice, coffee, ice cream, potato chips, meats and sausage. Clearly, the threat of Mad Cow Disease has helped the latter categories, but in the former categories it is safe to assume that people are moving towards these to reduce their exposure to pesticides and hormones in particular.

Wine: Domestic vs. Imported
In 2003, US wine consumption reached its highest level in 17 years despite a sluggish economy, with table wines showing the largest gains. Per capita consumption of wine is now 2.98 gallons per adult, according to government figures. While the unit volume of Domestic Table Wine is a bit more than four times that of Imported Table Wine. Over the past 52 week period ending 7/03/04 the imports registered a 12 percent increase in volume versus a practically flat market for the domestics, according to ACNielsen Beverage Trends. It is interesting that the imports did so much better than domestics, especially considering the popularity of extreme value domestics.


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Australia is the big winner in the table wine import category with an increase of 44 percent and market share of 7.5 percent. Sales of French wines across all categories continue to fall since the War in Iraq, registering a year to date decrease of nearly 13 percent.


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The wine varietals which show the most growth are lead by Shiraz/Syrah with an increase of 38.3 percent compared to the previous year, followed by Pinot Grigio/Gris (17 percent) and Pinot Noir (15.6 percent). Australia, New Zealand and South Africa have produced excellent wines in these varietals at reasonable prices. Predictions are that these countries will continue to increase their market share based on the consumer acceptance and demand. Chardonnay continues to be the varietal leader with an almost 21 percent share.

New Qualified Health Claim for Omega-3 Fatty Acids
The Food and Drug Administration announced last week the new qualified health claim for omega-3 fatty acids. The health claim is specifically related to cardiovascular health and conventional foods that contain eiscosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) omega-3 fatty acids. In early September, the US Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee released its long awaited recommendations, which included one that fish should be consumed at least twice a week (or 12 ounces) in order for Americans to get enough omega-3 fatty acids.


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The FDA feels that the new claim for omega-3 fatty acids will empower consumers by giving them knowledge to identify foods that contain these important compounds, which have been proven to reduce the risk of heart disease (FDA reports there are approximately 500,000 deaths a year related to coronary disease).

A qualified health claim on a conventional food must be supported by credible scientific evidence. While the research is not conclusive and studies will continue, the FDA intends to exercise its enforcement discretion with respect to the following qualified health claim:

"Supportive but not conclusive research shows that consumption of EPA and DHA omega-3 fatty acids may reduce the risk of coronary heart disease. One serving of [name of food] provides [x] grams of EPA and DHA omega-3 fatty acids. [See nutrition information for total fat, saturated fat and cholesterol content.]

For more information about the omega-3 fatty acid qualified health claim click here.

Low-Carb New Product Launches Slow to 1.2%
Over the past 52 weeks, ending 7/10/04, low-carb designated SKUs have been growing at the combined rate of 11.1 percent each month. Latest reporting from ACNielsen shows that in the month of July this segment's new product introductions has dropped to just 1.2.


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As more Americans settle in to their lower-carb lifestyle, many shoppers have found their products of choice or, through insightful label reading, have been able to shift to lower-carb traditional products.

Since President Clinton's hospitalization, some of the other diet plans, including Pritikin, have embarked on an aggressive campaign to attempt to shift dieters away from low-carb to low-fat. Many low-fat products already exist on the supermarket shelves, but low-carb marketing took diet foods to a new more sophisticated level - expect the low-fat brands to have learned from the experience and begin to market their products in much the same high profile model.

Economic Snapshot: Insights Behind The Earnings
With the 2nd quarter earnings season winding down, average gains across all companies within the S&P 500 are once again coming in at over 20 percent vs. year ago, which is the 4th straight qtr over 20 percent. What follows is a topline review of qtrly results generated from the 35+ retailers across the classes of trade that ACNielsen tracks, including Food, Drug, Discount, Club, Dollar, Convenience, Home Improvement, Pet, Office Supply, Online, Toy and Consumer.

Snapshot Findings: As expected, Wal-Mart led in qtrly sales with a reported net income of $2.7 billion and total sales of $69 billion. The nearest retailer was Home Depot with total sales over $20 billion. In terms of percent change in total sales, e-commerce retailers eBay and Amazon - up 59 percent and 26 percent - were the leaders. Whole Foods also showed a strong gain of 22 percent. A ranking of the key same store sales benchmark illustrated once again Whole Foods' strengths (+14%) followed by Costco (+11%) and Walgreens (+10.4%).

Select Channel Insights:

Food - The eight leading food retailers saw a continuation of moderate to low levels of total and same store sales growth as pressure from Wal-Mart's focus on food and declining grocery channel shopper frequency continued. The exception was the solid performance of Whole Foods, which reported a 15 percent earnings gain.

Drug - The performance of Drug retailers appears to exhibit a correlation between geographic coverage and sales results. The larger national players such as Walgreens, CVS, and Rite Aid outperformed the regional retailers such as Longs.

Discounters - While each of the big three (Wal-Mart, Kmart and Target) reported positive net income gains, the interesting takeaways were how Target performed vs. Wal-Mart, as it is generally more insulated from rising gas prices and Kmart's fifth straight quarter of double digit sales declines.

Club - Stellar gains were reported across all three major club retailers with double-digit gains in earnings and total store sales. Additionally, strong same store sales were reported as Sam's continues its impressive turnaround from 2003.

Dollar - The four leading dollar store retailers continue to generate strong total sales gains due to the tremendous rate of store openings. The business decision confronting these retailers in the immediate future is how to raise same store sales. Strategies such as increasing store size and expanding product offerings appear to be having a positive effect as the channel leaders seek to appeal to a broader consumer base.


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For further insight into the State Of The U.S Economy and its impact on the CPG industry, Please contact James Russo at ACNielsen at 516-429-8086 or james.russo@acnielsen.com.



The Beat Goes On
Store growth from Wal-Mart Supercenters and retailers in the Dollar Store channel are continuing to have a major impact on how U.S. households shop. Insights from the recently-released mid-year ACNielsen Homescan syndicated suite show the Dollar Store channel enjoying gains in household penetration -- from 66 percent of U.S households in calendar year 2003 to 68 percent of households for the year ending June 2004. This is a gain of over two million households. At the same time, Supercenters (defined as Kmart, Target and Wal-Mart Supercenters) saw penetration reach 55 percent -- a gain of over 1 million shopping households. Given that most of Wal-Mart's Supercenter expansion has come from conversions of their regular Discount store format, we can expect to see continued growth in their shopper base as they open stores in new markets and expand their store count in existing markets.


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As we saw at the end of 2003, store expansion within the Supercenter channel is also driving growth in shopping frequency within the channel. The average Supercenter shopper made 26 shopping trips to the channel for the year ending June 2004 -- an increase of one trip from calendar 2003 and five trips from 2001. Over this same time period, trips to both the Grocery and Mass-Merchandiser channels have declined five and three trips respectively. For the Mass channel, Kmart's store closures, as well as Wal-Mart's store conversions, are fueling this decline. Within the Grocery channel, we know that Supercenter expansion is having a downward impact on shopping frequency within Grocery stores. Value-conscious consumers are flocking to Supercenters as stores become more available. Also, other retailer channels (e.g. Dollar, Club, etc.) are leveraging the power of fast-moving consumer goods to drive stronger shopping frequency and larger basket rings in their stores.


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In terms of overall basket ring, the Supercenter channel has experienced a $7.00 increase in per trip spending versus 2001. Over this same time period, shopping baskets within the Grocery channel are only up $1.00. Clearly, Supercenters are getting shoppers to spend on both sides of the store, while baskets within the Grocery channel have leveled off due to Grocery retailers lowering their pricing to better compete with Wal-Mart's expansion efforts and Supercenter shoppers using the Grocery channel for fill-in trips.


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Among other news from the retail front:

Within the Grocery channel, Kroger has been quietly acquiring stores from other chains as well as adding larger stores to their mix to better compete against Supercenter expansion and grab a larger share of the business in markets that they serve. They are also experimenting with store formats that build off of the successes of better-for-you retailers like Whole Foods.

Albertsons is rolling out their "10 for 10 mix and match program" to offer their shoppers the treasure hunt that many U.S. consumers value from the Dollar Store channel. An interesting aspect of this program is that shoppers must shop the entire store - not a small section - to take advantage of this program. This is an innovative approach to drive traffic throughout a store. Albertsons is also opening up a chain of "limited-assortment, deep discount" stores similar to Save-A-Lot and Aldi (but larger).

Meijer has opened a 209,000 sq. ft.Supercenter with a greater upscale focus.

For the Drug channel, Walgreens' store expansion and their expanded number of stores open 24/7 is driving double-digit growth in both total sales and same-store sales. The acquisition of 1,200 Eckerd stores by CVS is a clear example of a Drug retailer looking to leverage store growth and take advantage of the aging population to drive their Rx and front-end store sales.

Finally, bigger doesn't always lead to better. Both Food Lion and Roundy's have rolled-out (or have announced plans to do so) Grocery stores with greater focus on technology, service and the perimeter of the store. Former Kohl's supermarket execs are planning to open 30,000 sq. ft. Grocery stores that will focus on food and customer service.

So, while Supercenter and Dollar Store growth is grabbing most of the headlines these days, there are plenty of examples of other retailers looking to re-invent and re-invigorate themselves.

For further information or to arrange a comprehensive presentation on consumer shopping patterns, please contact Todd Hale at thale@acnielsen.com or 859-905-4615.

In-Store Kiosks: Great Technologies or Dead Wood?
New technologies are attempting to make shoppers' experiences better, faster and more enjoyable. Examples are faster checkouts, on-demand information, and even the ability to place deli orders throughout the store to eliminate the wait. The results from a July SupermarketGuru.com survey suggest, that in most cases, shoppers are not likely to use these features.


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Of the four options offered, consumers were more likely to use self-checkout machines than any other service. Although not included in this survey, coin-counting machines also offer shoppers an easily recognizable and immediate benefit. These kiosks also require pre-planning by the shopper, which can reinforce the selection to visit (and stay loyal to?) a particular retail destination. Most kiosks have focused on the advanced technologies or content within, perhaps ignoring the underlying rule of success: "high-tech/high-touch"; and focusing on the consumer's (and not the programmer's) benefit.

Online Grocery Shopping Satisfaction
A July 2004 SupermarketGuru Quick Poll investigated where consumers are shopping for groceries outside of the traditional grocery channel of supermarkets. When asked, "Besides supermarkets, where else do you shop for groceries?" the results were close with Warehouse Clubs (33 percent), Big Discounters such as Wal-Mart, Target, Kmart, etc. (35 percent), and Small specialty food shops such as delis, cheese shops, butchers/seafood shops, and fresh take-out shops (32 percent). When our panel of 1,343 shoppers (85 percent female) were asked if they had ever shopped for groceries online, a majority (85 percent) answered "no"; underscoring the still underdeveloped channel for groceries.

Of those 15 percent that answered that they had shopped online, we surveyed their satisfaction with different aspects of their shopping experience.


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"Freshness" continues to be a major driver for shoppers across all food channels. To the credit of the online grocers that our consumer panel experienced, only a total of nine percent of shoppers felt "unsatisfied" or "very unsatisfied"; adding credibility to the freshness marketing approach that many of them continue to use in the advertising and promotional materials (including delivery vehicles). One of the most surprising findings was that when asked, "If your favorite supermarket offered online shopping, would you order from there exclusively?" eighty percent answered, "no." This is an indication that the traditional bricks & mortar retailer still has work to do to win over consumer confidence on the Internet. While many supermarkets continue to offer the "high value coupon" trial model created by the now defunct online grocers including WebVan; this response indicates that the key to online success may be elsewhere. In-store demonstrations of online ordering alongside advertising that promotes friendly and safe delivery personnel could have a much greater effect than a coupon - after all - a coupon, even if its worth $20, doesn't have any impact if it's never redeemed.

COUNTRY-TO-COUNTRY: Fastest Growing Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverage Categories in China
In the US, the Bottled Water category has risen in the rankings as the water brands battle it out and have reduced pricing. While base sales of Refrigerated Meal Starters is still in its infancy at $28 million, the past year has shown it doubling in size; reinforcing that the large opportunity for these types of preparation ingredients rests in the refrigerated section rather than on the grocery aisles. Fresh eggs, which have moved from a commodity into branded products, continue to generate strong dollar sales growth as a result of smart marketing, branding and turning eggs into a value-added product by adding vitamins and eliminating growth hormones.

China, long thought of as the land of opportunity for packaged goods, reports a huge growth in beverage sales. Notable is the growth of Instant Coffee, which may lead to a significant opportunity for the latest "pod" coffee machines and products (skipping the whole bean trend altogether). Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks' growth challenges the conventional wisdom of Asian dairy consumption habits and has a huge opportunity for continued growth as this category continues on its packaging and flavor innovation track.










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ACNielsen estimates that in 2003 over $3 billion was spent across all retail channels in the Breakfast Food category, which includes breakfast bars, granola & yogurt bars, powdered instant breakfasts, and refrigerated/frozen toaster pastries. The following slides indicate the percentage of households who buy each type of breakfast food, a sampling of higher indexing household types who buy products in the overall Breakfast Food category, and channel share of category dollar sales.



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